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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
545 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Short term...(today)
issued at 339 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Cold northwest flow to continue across central Illinois today with upper
low centered over Ohio slowly moving east. Cyclonic flow with
embedded weak disturbances and portions of the air column near
saturation will produce periods of light snow showers through the
day. Model forecast precipitation generally shifting eastward
through the day in concert with upper low...so trend through the day
will be for a slow diminishment of snow showers from west to east.
Additional snow accumulations expected to be only a few tenths or
less west of I-57 to around one half inch east of I-57. Highs
expected to range from 17 in Galesburg to 26 in Lawrenceville...with
blustery northwest winds 15-20 mph and gusts to 25 mph continuing.

Long term...(tonight through monday)
issued at 339 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Not much of a shift in the overall forecast. Long wave trof over
the eastern half of the country will dominate the weather pattern
through the week and the first half of next weekend. Bitterly cold
temps through the week behind the snow, ending tonight. Some of the
models starting to show some continuity for both the depth of the
cold air as well as the series of quick waves moving through the
region in the northwesterly flow that will remain in place through
Saturday.

Blustery and cold tonight with northwesterly winds remaining in the
15-20 mph range overnight and temps dipping down to the single
digits. Areas northwest of the river will be very close to wind chill
criteria, albeit briefly. So far, not enough to warrant an
advisory. Cold air will keep the high temps for Wed and thur in the
teens and 20s. Overnight lows will be in the single digits and
lower teens by Friday morning. Models starting to agree on a couple
waves, one passing to the south of ilx on Wed night, and a slight
chance for snow across the SW is in place for now. The next quick
moving clipper like system is slated for Friday. This one the
potential for some light accumulations and have started the trend in
the forecast. Even though this is on day 4, the nature of the quick
wave means the confidence in the timing is low overall and could
easily shift slightly in the next couple runs. By late in the
weekend, an upper level ridge is shifting into the region and the
temperatures are moderating somewhat. Although the European model (ecmwf) is coming
around a little bit from the extremely cold solution of 24 hrs ago,
neither the GFS nor the European model (ecmwf) are particularly warm in the extended.
Concerned the guidance may be a bit too high too quickly into the
first part of next week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 545 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

MVFR ceilings expected to persist across the central Illinois
terminals through most of the 12z taf valid time as low
pressure/cyclonic flow slowly moves farther east. Weak
disturbances will continue to move through the area the through
afternoon producing periods of light snow showers and flurries.
Brief periods of IFR vsby/cigs possible in heavier showers, mainly
through morning. Showers expected to taper off from west to east.
Winds northwest 10-16 kts with gusts 20-25 kts from late morning through
afternoon.

&&

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

Short term...Onton
long term...hjs
aviation...Onton

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