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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
551 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Short term...(tonight)
issued at 323 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

A fast moving clipper will produce light snow starting this evening
across western Illinois, with most of the focused lift overnight
primarily remaining across our southwestern counties. The general
trend in the 12z models has been to focus the better chances of
measurable snowfall over our southwestern and southern counties.
Have increased pops to likely in a narrow corridor southwest of a
line from Jacksonville to Effingham, progressing from SW to southeast with
time overnight. The hrrr is the farthest southwest with the latest
updated path of forcing for precip, with the nam80, Canadian Gem,
and European model (ecmwf) still extending at least some snow accumulation across all
of our County Warning Area except the far NE counties NE of cmi. The nam12 is
similar to the hrrr in limiting snow to the SW half of our County Warning Area. Have
reduced the pops in our north and NE counties, north of I-74, to slight
chance. Chance pops were limited to generally south of a line from
Galesburg to Lincoln to Paris. Snow amounts from Jacksonville to
Effingham could reach between a half inch and one inch, with a
dusting to a half inch as far north as Rushville to Lincoln to
Decatur. South to southwest winds should remain less than 10 mph
during the snowfall, so drifting should not be a big problem
overnight.

Low temps tonight will generally settle out in the mid-teens, as
cloud cover limits the diurnal swing to only around a 10 degree drop-
off.

Long term...(friday through thursday)
issued at 323 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Friday may start out with a few lingering snow showers south of
I-70, but little additional accumulation is expected after
sunrise. The bigger story will be the arrival of very cold air on
increasing northwest winds Friday afternoon, as strong pressure
rises develop ahead of the surface high center. The tight pressure
gradient will produce wind gusts over 30 mph at times, which could
cause minor drifting of the snowfall from tonight, so slippery
travel could develop from that Friday afternoon and evening.

Wind chills late Friday night will drop very close to advisory
levels of -15f north of Peoria, with wind chills below zero in all
of our forecast area. Actual air temps will be range from zero to 8
above zero, but northwest winds will remain strong enough to push wind
chills well below zero.

The next main concern will be the system for Sunday into Monday.
Model differences remain with the 12z model updates. The Canadian
Gem has started showing the splitting of energy as the trough
reaches Illinois, similar to what the European model (ecmwf) was showing yesterday.
The European model (ecmwf) has changed and now maintains the trough energy across
Illinois Sunday evening, with total quantitative precipitation forecast amounts that support snow
amounts of 1 to 2". The Canadian Gem quantitative precipitation forecast amounts support around 1
inch west of I-55, with little to no snow accum east of I-55. The
GFS remains the only model that develops a distinct surface
low/circulation that tracks across northern Illinois Sunday evening, with
total quantitative precipitation forecast amounts that support snowfall of 4" to 7" in our northern
counties, and 3-4" in the south. The 12z NAM now includes forecast
info through 6 PM Sunday, and is showing plenty of snow as well,
despite no surface low moving across Illinois. The NAM has 3-5" across our
counties for just the first 12 hours of the event through 6 PM
Sunday. We have increased pops into the likely category for Sunday
nearly everywhere, and likely pops east of I-57 Sunday night.

Our compromise forecast for quantitative precipitation forecast came out to 0.23-0.30", correlating
to snowfall amounts of 2-4", with the higher totals from Peoria and
north. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with how much
moisture will fall, so updates to quantitative precipitation forecast and resultant snow accums are
likely with subsequent model runs.

The accumulating snows should primarily be done by Monday morning,
but lingering light snow or flurries could continue into afternoon.
If precip does linger into the afternoon, the snow may mix
with or change to rain.

All of the extended models show a low deepening south of Illinois on
Monday, and progressing up into the Appalachian Mountains Monday
night, with precip mainly southeast of our area. However, the
blended initialization kept slight chance pops in the eastern half
of Illinois Monday night through Tuesday night, mainly due to that
strong system.

A warming trend is indicated for next week, as upper level ridging
gradually pushes east into Illinois. We should see mid-level warming
increase enough to support high temps climbing into the upper 30s to
low 40s Tuesday and Wed, with sunshine and mid 40s to around 50 for
Thursday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 551 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

All sites will begin with mid and high clouds this evening, but
snow, along with lower cigs and vis will move into the area in a
few hours. Current radar shows most of the snow in central and
south central Iowa. Models differ on where most of snow will fall
and how far North/East it will occur in central Illinois. Will have
lightest snow along the pia/bmi/cmi line with only going down to
3sm. Dec will have going down to 2sm and spi down to 1.5sm. 5-8
hrs with spi lasting longest since it will be closest to the
heavier band of snow. Cigs will drop to lower MVFR during the snow
and vis at spi will be just above 1sm. Once snow stops, lower cigs
will remain but then scatter out during the afternoon. Winds will
be light most of the period, but then increase once snow ends and
be gusty. Wind directions will be southerly, then becoming
southwest, then west- northwesterly.

&&

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...shimon
long term...shimon
aviation...auten

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