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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
946 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

issued at 946 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Upper wave currently tracking across Iowa is responsible for an
area of showers and isolated thunderstorms west of the Mississippi
River. Northeast edge of this area is in southeast Iowa but
showing some diminishment as of late...and high-resolution models
in agreement that this will die out before reaching our
will leave the forecast dry. However...have beefed up the cloud
cover somewhat...primarily over the northwest County Warning Area through
midday...with the associated cloud shield starting to approach the
Illinois River. Temperatures still largely on track to reach the
lower 90s...but will have to watch the northwest County Warning Area in case these
clouds remain thick too long.


Short term...(today)
issued at 307 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Upper ridge oriented from the Southern Plains to the eastern Great
Lakes will continue to be the dominant weather feature across
central Illinois today...providing mostly sunny and hot conditions.
Vigorous short-wave that has triggered scattered heavy downpours
across portions of east-central Illinois over the past two days has
shifted further east into Ohio and will not be a factor.
Meanwhile...a second wave across southern Minnesota will stay well
to the north/northwest of the area. May see some high/thin clouds from
convective debris associated with this feature...but overall sky
condition will remain mostly sunny. High temperatures will be
similar to yesterday...mainly in the lower 90s.

Long term...(tonight through tuesday)
issued at 307 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Minnesota short-wave trough will track east/NE across Wisconsin
today...then will drop southeastward into Michigan/northern Indiana
on Thursday. With this particular track...any associated convection
should stay mainly to the north/NE of the area...however locations
along/northeast of I-74 could potentially see an isolated
thunderstorm Thursday afternoon/evening. The NAM continues to be
the most aggressive with precipitation further south into portions of the
kilx County Warning Area...while the latest European model (ecmwf) keeps the convection much further
north across Michigan. Think a middle-of-the Road approach is best
here...with showers/thunder remaining just north/NE of the County Warning Area. High
temperatures will once again reach the lower 90s.

The upper ridge will remain in place across the region through the
weekend...ensuring a continuation of very warm and largely dry
conditions. An isolated thunderstorm cannot completely be ruled out
on any particular day...however synoptic forcing will remain weak at will maintain a dry forecast with highs in the lower
90s through Sunday.

After that...things get a little more interesting as the ridge
gradually begins to break down. Models are struggling with the
pattern change...with the general trend suggesting a slower
weakening of the ridge and a delayed arrival of a cold front. Think
00z Sep 2 European model (ecmwf) may have the most reasonable handle on the
situation...showing a deep upper low diving into the Pacific
northwest this weekend then lifting into southern Canada early next
week. This will push a dissipating cold front into central Illinois
on Monday. Due to high upper heights and weak convergence along the
boundary...will only carry slight chance probability of precipitation with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 on Monday. The European model (ecmwf) then shows another
strong short-wave tracking southeastward out of western Canada next
week that will eventually push a stronger cold front into the
region. Timing remains in question...but it appears frontal passage will
occur during the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Will therefore carry
chance probability of precipitation on Tuesday...with highs dropping back into the middle


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 643 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Aside from patchy early morning fog today and late night fog
tonight, VFR conditions will prevail across the central Illinois
terminals through the 12z taf valid time. Cloud cover will be
minimal, with winds generally light out of the south to southwest.


Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Barnes
long term...Barnes

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