Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
639 am CDT Wednesday may 27 2015

Short term...(today)
issued at 336 am CDT Wednesday may 27 2015

A weak front will slide southeast through the County Warning Area today. Showers and
thunderstorms can be expected along this front during the day and
radar loop shows that some have already developed and are moving
east-northeast. Over most of the area they will be scattered...but
over the southern part of the state they should be more widespread.
Will have higher probability of precipitation in out southeast with probability of precipitation lowering as you go
northwest. Believe north half of the County Warning Area will be dry by this
afternoon. Winds will be southwest ahead of the front but then
gradually switch to more west-northwest by late afternoon...after
the front moves through. With partly sunny skies...should be plenty
of sunshine to allow temperatures to reach to between 80 and 85.

Long term...(tonight through tuesday)
issued at 336 am CDT Wednesday may 27 2015

Brief break in the precipitation for much of central Illinois tonight and
tomorrow...at least until later in the day. Some low probability of precipitation still in
the south tonight as the front settles into the region, otherwise
some weak ridging building in the wake of the exiting wave.
However, just as quickly, southwesterly flow reestablishes itself
over the country. The low digging in over the western half of the
Continental U.S. However is a bit weaker in the last few runs and The Heights
not quite responding accordingly in the models. Although the upper
pattern may not pan out to be exactly as depicted, Midwest still in
line for another unsettled end of the week with shower chances
coming back in tomorrow night and remaining in place through the
first half of the weekend. Front moving into the region Friday
night/Sat associated with a distinct upper low moving across southern
Canada and the Great Lakes... will usher in cooler and drier air for
the end of the weekend and first portion of next week with temperatures
briefly dropping into the 60s and 70s through Monday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 639 am CDT Wednesday may 27 2015

VFR conditions should prevail at all taf sites next 24hrs.
Scattered lower VFR clouds are over the area with blowoff from a
small mesoscale convective system south of St Louis. Radar loops shows scattered showers
over the area so will have vcsh at all sites today until
frontal passage...which will be around 16z at pia and then 17z at spi and
bmi...followed by Dec at 19z and cmi at 21z. Once frontal passage occurs
skies should just be scattered remainder of the day...then
becoming clear during the early evening hours. Winds will increase
and become a little breezy for later this morning and into this
afternoon...including frontal passage. This evening winds will become light
and variable.

&&

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...auten
long term...hjs
aviation...auten

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations