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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
302 am CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Short term...(today)
issued at 301 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected today as central
Illinois remains in weak subsidence aloft behind yesterday's storm
system. With a surface high pressure center passing by to the south
and a surface low approaching northeast Illinois from the northern plains,
a strengthening pressure gradient will bring a 10-15 mph SW breeze
helping to advect warmer air into the region from the Central
Plains. Highs will therefore reach the low to mid 60s, with the
warmer temperatures toward the west side of the state. Periods of
high clouds can be expected, but they should be thin enough for a
mostly sunny day.


Long term...(tonight through sunday)
issued at 301 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

In the near term...temperatures going through a warming trend
through midweek. A quick wave/clipper like system diving into the
Midwest should keep the bulk of its impacts just north of ilx dry weather and weak high pressure ridging dominates
through Wednesday. System in development for second half of the
week starting to show in the Med range models and so far, the NAM is
aligning with slower European model (ecmwf)...with the Gem not too far behind. With
the slower solution, the precip should remain to the west until
Thursday morning, but so far, the superblend is holding onto pops
for Wed night because of the quicker GFS. Have altered them somewhat
in the east to start a slower trend. Once this front moves through
with the rain on Thursday and Thursday evening, the front does not
get very far and ends up hanging up in mostly weak parallel flow
just north of the Ohio River valley. Another wave moves out of the
plains along the boundary, enhancing precip along the boundary for
Friday as well as acting as a kicker to get the system out of the
region altogether by the weekend. High pressure builds back in for
next weekend with the highs in the mid to upper 50s/lower 60s.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1143 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06z taf valid time. A cold front
has cleared the area within the past few hours, with high pressure
expected to be dominant for the duration of the forecast. Cloud
cover is expected to be minimal overall, with winds becoming gusty
out of the the southwest for much of the daytime hours Monday.


Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Onton
long term...hjs

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