Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
613 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
issued 256 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
forecast problems is the light snow event on Sunday, and a front
producing light rain Tuesday night to Wed.
Short term...tonight through Sunday night.
Upper air and moisture channel data this morning shows upper wave
over Iowa driving surface front through Iowa today. Clouds are the
only result of this feature, but with gusty winds both ahead of
and behind the front. Next system handled similar by the models,
is an upper level trof moving from NE/Kansas and through MO, which
deepens surface low that moves through MO to Tennessee/southern Kentucky. As a
result, pcpn develops north of low over the southern 1/2 of Illinois
late Sat night, and through day sun. Pcpn will start as rain
overnight in central and southeast cwa, changing over to all snow
in the central on sun and southeast by afternoon. Best overrunning
north of the low is over the southeast sections, in the afternoon
Sunday when the cold air reaches the area and so 2-3 inches psbl
in that region. Started with westward amounts, modifying the quantitative precipitation forecast
amounts and having rain or mixture in southeast initially until
cold air reaches area, as the forecast soundings indicated.
Long term...Monday to Friday
long range is mainly quiet, but the period of Tuesday night to
Wednesday. During that period, another system will push a front
through early Wednesday, with a chance of light rain for the area.
Temperatures through the period remain below normal.
issued 613 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites next 24hrs. Most
sites are clear, except for some mid clouds at pia and bmi. Based
on satellite trends, expecting these clouds to advect over the cmi
taf as well. Clouds should be scattered, but may be broken at
times, so will include a tempo group for a couple of hours to
cover that. Then skies should be clear overnight and through the
morning hours. Tomorrow, mid cloud around 10kft begin to affect
the northern tafs of pia and bmi. The other sites should remain
clear or scattered. Lower clouds will likely hold off til after
00z tomorrow, in advance of the next weather system. The wind
shift is finally moving through so all sites will be northwest to
start. Overnight winds will become light and variable, then east
to southeasterly tomorrow afternoon.