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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
617 am CDT sun Sep 21 2014

Short term...(today)
issued at 323 am CDT sun Sep 21 2014

The precipitation and trailing cold front will have pushed well
south of the County Warning Area by forecast time, so will not have any precip
mentioned in the forecast for today. Even though high pressure will
build into the plains, the area will remain under the influence of
cyclonic flow. This flow will combine with low level moisture from
the rain yesterday to produce partly to mostly sunny conditions,
with most of the clouds being in the northeast, closer to the upper
level system. As the upper level trough rotates through northeast
IL, some scatter showers could develop, but believe these will
remain northeast of the area. Colder air will advect into the region
today, so highs will only reach to around 70 over most of the cwa,
but low to mid 70s in the southeast.


Long term...(tonight through saturday)
issued at 323 am CDT sun Sep 21 2014

High pressure continues to build into the region behind the frontal
passage this morning through the week. Forecast remains quiet and
dominated by large ridge over much of the eastern half of the Continental U.S.
And a persistent sfc ridge over the Midwest. Weak flow under the
sfc high becomes more southerly on Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts
slightly eastward. Slow warming trend starts as a result and
continues through the end of the week with warm temps just above
normals by Thursday. Although some systems move across the country,
including a weak trof in the plains for midweek, no precip is able
to move into the ridge and the forecast remains dry through day 7.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 617 am CDT sun Sep 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites next 24hrs. Skies at
all sites will be clear to start, but am expecting cumulus/SC to
develop across the area, given the amount of low level moisture
still left over after the rain yesterday and the fact the area
remains in cyclonic flow aloft. So, seems ideal conditions for scattered
to broken cumulus late this morning and into the afternoon. Cloud heights
should be around 3500-4000ft. With the clouds being diurnal, it
should dissipate this evening and then become clear overnight.
Winds will be northwest to northerly through the period. Momentum
Transfer in the model soundings suggest some gust this afternoon
of 22-25kts.


Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...auten
long term...hjs

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