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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PCPN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOME CLEARING
PUSHING DOWN INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND AS IT DOES...SUPPOSE IT WILL
BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MAY HELP THE LOWER CLOUDS
HANG IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
AS A RESULT...WILL BE A LITTLE SLOW TO IMPROVE SKY CONDITIONS
THERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE FA WILL KEEP EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE MORE IN THE
WAY ON CLEARING ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.  

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL WORK UP INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THERE IS
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEREFORE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALSO IN THE FORECAST. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AROUND SUNSET
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. 

A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES 
THROUGH LATE WEEK. AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY 
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL KEEP THE LOW THREAT OF DIURNALLY 
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME ISSUES ON HOW STRONG A 
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND HOW FAST IT 
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. IN EITHER CASE...WILL 
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN 
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. WE SHOULD BE 
IN A LULL IN TERMS OF THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE 
REGION.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT 
LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM 
WILL AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM LATE WEEK 
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PCPN HAS PRETTY MUCH TAPERED OFF ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT MVFR CIGS
ARE HANGING IN FAIRLY TOUGH. SOME DRIER AIR HAS BEEN TRYING TO WORK IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO
HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THIS DRYING WILL WORK OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD HANG IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT BOTH THE SREF AND LATEST LAMP DATA
ARE SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS REDEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IF WE DOE GET SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING. WILL THEREFORE HEDGE AND ALLOW FOR A TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL




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