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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO AN END EARLY...AS A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE A A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN WILL EXIST AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN
NORTH. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL S/W TROF AXIS TO SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH NW FLOW AND MINOR
RIDGING BUILDING IN. LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SE
WILL COME TO AN END AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY. WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACRS THE NW COUNTIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THE FOG WILL IMPROVE WITH CLOUDS DECREASING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE WARMER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST OF OHIO INTO PA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE MID 60S SW. 

MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VLY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS TAKING
MOISTURE INTO NRN KY SUNDAY AFTN AHD OF THIS LOW. WILL INTRODUCE
CHC POPS ACRS THE FAR SOUTH DURG THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. 

THE UPPER LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NNE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE SE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT
ABOUND...AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH ONE ANOTHER. HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE
TUESDAY AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH 
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM 
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT. 

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE 
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS. 
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE 
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE 
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR AT TAF
SITES. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS. BR THAT HAS
FORMED MAINLY AT ILN IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER CLEARING
SKIES WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z. WINDS WILL STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTH. BR MAY FORM AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST AT LUK.
CVG WILL HAVE EAST WINDS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO




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