Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
957 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MOVING INTO OUR AREA. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY
BUT THIS COULD STILL LEAD TO A SPRINKLE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING...TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE TEMPERATURE DROP OFF WILL EVENTUALLY BE
MITIGATED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT THINK THE CLOUDS MAY HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH BUT WILL PLAY IT
SAFE AND KEEP FROST ADVISORY FOR LICKING...FAIRFIELD AND HOCKING
COUNTIES WITH A PATCHY FROST MENTION FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES
FARTHER WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL GET INTO RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ON THURSDAY
WITH WAA DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURES WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. THE LIMITING RED FLAG CRITERIA LOOKS
TO BE THE WINDS AS THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ACROSS THE
EAST. THINK BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE SITUATION AT THIS TIME IS WITH
A CONTINUED MENTION OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO.

ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE REMAINING MODELS HAS BEEN SLOWER
AND WILL TREND THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PCPN
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. WITH
THIS SLOWER TIMING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING BY THE TIME THE PCPN
GETS INTO OUR AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING/PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF A SECONDARY FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND
CONTINUE WITH SOME LOWER END POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH 
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER TO 
THE AREA. 

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF A 
DEEP UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND MID WEEK. 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF 
THIS SYSTEM. PIECES OF ENERGY ARE THEN FORECAST TO ADVECT EAST 
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHICH WILL 
LIKELY BRING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR 
OF A SURFACE LOW STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH ANY PRECIPITATION 
THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE 
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF OUR AREA...LEAVING OUR AREA IN 
THE COLD SECTOR. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST TO MOVE THE 
UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AM 
FORECASTING A GRADUAL LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING 
THAT TIME. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGHS COULD BE IN THE UPPER 
40S BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEREFORE NUDGED THE FORECAST DOWN BY A FEW 
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT THE 
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE WET...FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND 
POTENTIALLY SHOWERY TIME PERIOD STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE 
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A DRY AIRMASS AT TAF SITES.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE HIGH...BUT
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTHEAST...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ056-065-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...CONIGLIO