AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
112 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DECAYING REMAINS OF EARLIER MCS THAT PROGRESSED EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON IS AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AREAS OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE BEFORE 2 AM...AND
THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER .05 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART.
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGHOUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...THE
BACK EDGE OF CIRRUS AND ALTO-CU CANOPY BEING TRACKED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AT THIS HOUR WILL MAKE IT TO THOSE ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. THIS MAY YIELD ENOUGH OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES BEFORE
SUNRISE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST FOR THOSE ZONES IN
CASE THAT SCENARIO DOES OCCUR. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVER DOES REMAIN
OVER THOSE ZONES FOR MUCH LONGER THAN FORECAST...THEN THE CHANCES
FOR ANY TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL DIMINISH
RAPIDLY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ZONES...TWEAKED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY DUE TO TRENDS THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA ON SUNDAY HOWEVER EXPECT THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FA
TO REMAIN DRY. WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY ON MONDAY
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA. THERE IS ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FA. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THERE WILL BE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A NOT YET CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. SO
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THEREAFTER RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM COULD START TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH BY SATURDAY TO
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THOUGH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF LUK AND CVG FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL SITES OWING TO THE LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS ENDS...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER BEFORE SHOWERS RECUR WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY UNDER 10
KNOTS WITH DIRECTION VARIABLE IN RELATION TO THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
