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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN
DURING THE WEEKEND...CAUSING AN INCREASED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH NORTHWEST OHIO TO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A SMALL CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN FWA AND OKK.
THE SLOW MOVING CLUSTER COULD REACH WEST CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
MORNING SO INCREASED POPS THERE THROUGH MID MORNING.

AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES COULD SEE THE MOST COVERAGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
COME INTO PHASE...LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND TRIGGERING
CONVECTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH. HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 90S ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL WARRANT MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
DROPS SOUTH AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE THAT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT FROM
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE RETURN FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH
COULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S...THEN RISING AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS FOR SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN
MID LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC
BLEND.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY 
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD 
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE 
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING 
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT 
INTO SUNDAY. 

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO 
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT 
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL 
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY 
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING 
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE 
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST 
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE 
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND 
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE 
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED 
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL DIP SOUTH TO THE
OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS
HAS KEPT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CATEGORY.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE SOUTHWARD
SAGGING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING PCPN
EARLY BUT THIS IS NOT BEING OBSERVED. EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE TO THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. THEREFORE... HAVE LIMITED PCPN MENTION TO VCTS FOR THE
PERIOD WHEN THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED AT
EACH TAF SITE. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AT 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY AND THEN
LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE
LIGHT NE FLOW. HAVE A MENTION OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK AND KILN
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR

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