Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
542 am EDT Sat may 23 2015
high pressure will extend over the region today. The center of
the high will move off the middle Atlantic coast by Sunday. Return
moist flow around the high will interact with embedded disturbances
aloft to bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms to the
region next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
surface high pressure will extend across the region today. A mix
of middle and high level clouds will spill into the region from time
to time. Skies have become partly to mostly cloudy early this
morning due to some middle clouds. However...we should see some of
this dwindle this morning due to subsidence and heating. Highs
will range from the middle to upper 70s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
upper level flow will amplify tonight into Sunday as surface high
pressure moves off the middle Atlantic coast. Mostly clear skies
tonight will give way to partly cloudy conditions on Sunday as middle
and high level clouds continue to spill into the region. It will
be a little warmer with highs mainly in the lower 80s.
For Sunday night into Monday...amplifying middle level region will
eventually extended from southern New England to the southeast Atlantic
Seaboard. Our area will eventually see a plume of deeper moisture
advecting northeast into the area. This increase in moisture
combined with embedded disturbances in a southwest flow aloft will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Monday. It will
remain warm but it will become more humid.
For Monday night into Tuesday night...a repeat of Monday can be
expected with the threat for showers/storms continuing with deep
moisture in place interacting with disturbances aloft. Warm and
humid conditions will persist.
Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...
an unsettled pattern will be in place for Wednesday through Thursday.
Warm southerly flow will lead to high temperatures generally in
the 80s and low temperatures in the 60s. Multiple disturbances
will work through the area through this time leading to shower and
thunderstorm chances during the Wednesday through Thursday time
frame. A break in the thunderstorm activity is expected on Friday
with high pressure across the area. Models are similar with the
main features in the long term although there are some minor
strength and timing issues. Due to this have used a model blend
for the long term time period.
Aviation /10z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions with very light flow expected at the taf sites over
the next 24 hours. Scattered-broken middle-high clouds will drift across the
sites especially 08z-18z. Winds likely to be light/variable but if
they do increase locally it will likely be of a east/southeast
component with center of high off to the east of the area.
May be some brief MVFR visible reduction at kluk in the pre-sunrise
hours this morning. Continued tempo group for this possibility.
Outlook...thunderstorms possible Monday through Wednesday...with
MVFR ceilings/visibilities possible.