Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1029 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015
a cold front will move through tonight. High pressure will build
in the Midwest on Thursday and a drier airmass is expected to last
into the weekend for the Ohio Valley. The next weak cold frontal
passage is expected Saturday.
Near term /through Thursday/...
cold front working its way through northern Indiana bringing drier
airmass into the northwest half of forecast area overnight. With the slow
progression of the front and lingering very moist airmass with
lingering instability...just spotty showers through midnight-2am.
While drier air moving in...lingering ll moisture especially in
areas which had the heavier showers may bring some patchy morning
fog...though nothing dense expected. Should mainly be confined to
southern forecast area where airmass wont be quite as dry.
Adjusted overnight lows in mainly the northwest third of forecast area to
drop low temperatures and dewpoints with the drier airmass nosing
Short term /Thursday night/...
drier air continues to spread across the County Warning Area on Thursday as high
pressure builds into the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Precipitable water
values will drop below 1 inch and dewpoints likely drop below 60
f. Result will be plenty of sunshine with lower humidity Thursday.
Dry/clear trend continues into Thursday night with high pressure
remaining in control.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
models are in general agreement on the main features and therefore
have used a blend. High pressure will allow for dry conditions
across the forecast area for Friday and into the weekend. An upper level
disturbance will bring a slight chance for thunderstorms to northern
portions of the forecast area Sunday night. Additional precipitation chances
will be possible Monday night into Tuesday as a frontal boundary
moves through the region.
High temperatures will generally be in the 80s through the long term
period. Low temperatures will drop into the 50s and 60s.
Aviation /03z Thursday through Monday/...
with the frontal boundary pushing through Indiana...finally
ushering in a drier airmass and shower/thunderstorm chances
diminish after about 02/03utc in the southern and eastern taf
locations. With the intense rainfall at some locations...kept in
the MVFR conditions near 12z for Kiln/kluk especially...as well as
some potential for stratus...though less confidence here.
Otherwise very light winds and VFR conditions with sky clear for the end
of the period.
Outlook...no significant weather is expected at this time.