Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
415 am EDT Thursday Sep 3 2015
a weak upper disturbance will cross the Ohio Valley as it moves
southeast today. A broader upper level low will move south into
the region from the Great Lakes tonight and linger over Ohio
Friday and Saturday. A very weak surface pattern underneath this
upper disturbance will keep a threat for afternoon storms through
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
more of the same in the forecast. Weak low level forcing with very
little pressure gradient...an upper level shortwave that is fairly
weak...and high moisture profiles. The moisture and weak forcing
will combine with the daytime heating and spark scattered to
isolated thunderstorms for yet another day.
Highs will reach the upper 80s and combine with dewpoints in the
upper 60s for another muggy day.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
the circulation over eastern Michigan tonight will slowly eke
southward and settle over Ohio on Friday and meander to northern
Kentucky on Saturday. With a weak surface flow and continued humid
airmass...afternoon thunderstorms will be present if only in a
scattered or isolated nature through Saturday. The increased cloud
cover expected with the upper feature will limit highs from
reaching past 90 through this time as well. A bit of drier air is
expected to work in on Sunday...and the threat for storms on this
day seems a bit more diminished than the others.
Long term /Monday through Wednesday/...
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in an
unstable airmass Saturday afternoon. Expect any thunderstorm
activity to dissipate Saturday evening. High pressure will then
allow for dry conditions through Monday morning. A weak upper level
disturbance will allow for a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon into
Monday night. Additional disturbances will keep precipitation
chances in the forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday. Without any
significant forcing kept precipitation chances in the extended in
the slight to chance categories.
High temperatures will generally be in the 80s through the extended
with low temperatures in the 60s.
Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/...
convection is finally dying off as the period begins. Lingering middle
clouds across central Ohio could limit the amount of fog at
lck...so limited the fog there to the MVFR category this morning.
Farther south where the clouds are scattered expect a little more
fog to develop...similar to the past few days...where luk and iln
will see IFR visibilities before sunrise.
After the fog Burns off...a 500 mb shortwave will drop through the
Great Lakes into Northern Ohio. This should kick off afternoon
convection once again...with the best coverage across the north.
Went ahead and included a thunderstorms in the vicinity at all tafs...but limited the
window in the SW tafs.
After 00z...the short wave continues to slip southeast across Ohio. Convection could
linger longer than the past few nights...so kept a thunderstorms in the vicinity going
across the north.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.