Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
957 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015
high pressure will build across the region for the weekend. A
cold front will then move through the area on Monday.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
cold front has moved through the area with drier air quickly
filtering in. There still remains some cloud cover behind the
front but the clearing line has made it to the Ohio/ Michigan
border. Have kept lows a tad below guidance.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
high pressure will build across the region on Saturday and move
off to the east on Sunday. Very dry air mass will be in place with
perhaps only some high clouds. Temperatures will drop to slightly
below normal Saturday and Saturday night. With the return of
southerly flow and a brief period of upper ridging temperatures
will rebound and be about five degrees warmer than the previous
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
a cold front will be approaching the area at the start of the long
term period. The front will move through during the afternoon and
into the evening hours. The GFS has come more in line with the
European model (ecmwf) with this feature. Moisture will be limited with this feature
however believe light precipitation will move through during this
time. Went with a chance of precipitation at this time. There is
not much in the way of instability and therefore kept thunder
mention out of the forecast.
Monday will be the warmest day of the long term. After the passage
of the cold front cooler weather will be in store for the remainder
of the week with high temperatures generally in the 60s and lows in
Generally expect high pressure and dry conditions for the remainder
of the long term. There are some indications of weak disturbances
moving through however there is not a strong enough or consistent
enough signal to include precipitation chances at this time.
Aviation /02z Saturday through Wednesday/...
the cold front and left over rain has pushed southeast of all the
taf sites this evening leaving borderline MVFR/ VFR ceilings in place.
Forecast soundings show the clouds slowly starting to erode
overnight as drier air works in from the north. There is a slight
chance of some patchy fog at kluk overnight but with drier air
working in and winds remaining above calm think chance is limited.
During the day tomorrow VFR expected. Some passing cirrus expected
with little to no daytime cumulus forecasted. Winds will start to turn
towards the northeast as high pressure moves into the region but
will remain relatively light.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.