Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
806 PM EDT Monday Mar 30 2015
low pressure will skirt Northern Ohio tonight as it tracks
southeast from the upper Midwest. The low will trail a cold front
southward through the Ohio Valley as it moves east to the middle
Atlantic. High pressure will settle over the eastern Ohio Valley
Wednesday night and Thursday...with warmer southerly flow expected
over the region until the next cold front crosses on Friday.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
extensive middle and high clouds have spread across much of the
region and will remain through the night. High resolution guidance
still suggests that light precipitation moving southeast will
skirt the far northern counties late this evening into the early
overnight and then continue off to the east. Winds will diminish
and back during the evening but then increase in speed late
tonight as the pressure gradient strengthens with the approach of
a low. This will influence temperatures will lows likely occurring
early in the overnight and then steadying out or rising towards
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night/...
as the low exits the area...winds will turn north and decrease in
the late day and skies will clear out. Light winds and a general
clearing will permit lows Tuesday night to drop into the middle 30s for
most locations. Daytime highs Wednesday will climb to around 60
and then warm advection will hamper nighttime drop offs as winds
pick up from the south and clouds stream into western County Warning Area
overnight Wednesday. Overnight lows here will bottom out in the
40s...upper 40s southwest of cincy and lower 40s north and east of
Next threat of rain will be beyond forecast period on Thursday with
Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
yesterday there was a spread in the models on the timing of a
cold front which would affect the region on Thursday. The European model (ecmwf) was
lagging well behind most of the other models. Well...beginning
with the 00z model run and continuing into the 12z the GFS/CMC
have snapped back to the slower European model (ecmwf) solution. So now have
Thursday starting off dry with scattered convection developing in
the morning. As the front approaches in the afternoon upped probability of precipitation
into the likely category as a 50 knots 800 mb jet will help focus the
lift. Bumped highs up a degree or two for Thursday. Highs in the
lower 70s for most of the region.
Front drops into the forecast area Thursday night...with the European model (ecmwf) remaining
the slowest/farther north with the front by 12z Friday. Lows will drop
into the middle 40s to lower 50s Thursday night behind the front.
500 mb trough will cause a surface low to develop on the front
Friday...pushing rain showers back to the north. Temperatures will
recover into the middle 50s in the northwest...ranging up to lower 60s in the
Precipitation will end from west to east Friday night as high pressure builds in
from the plains. Cooler air filtering in Friday night will drop
temperatures into the 30s. A surface trough/weak cold front drops through the
eastern Great Lakes on Saturday. Kept any precipitation associated with this
northeast of the forecast area for now. Highs on Saturday will be around 50.
The high pressure should provide a dry day Sunday as temperatures
warm back to the lower to middle 50s. Southerly surface flow will push a
warm front across the region Monday. This could set off some scattered
Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. Middle and high
clouds will continue through the first half of the forecast.
These will move off with scattered to broken stratocumulus
developing during the day. Winds will back to southwest and weaken
slightly early but then strengthen and become gusty after 09z.
Gusty winds will persist and veer through the day.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Thursday
and Thursday night.