Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1042 am EST sun Dec 28 2014
as a cold front pushes east of the area...low clouds and cooler
temperatures will persist over the area. High pressure will
provide dry weather and seasonable temperatures through middle week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
cold front now southeast of area with low clouds lingering through
today behind the front. Patchy drizzle will also accompany the
lower clouds especially along and south/east of Interstate 71.
Temperatures will not move much today in the cold air advection. With the front
already through the area...have lowered high temperature slightly
in the far southeast to only low 40s expected.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/...
eastern edge of large high pressure system will begin to build into
the region tonight. The center of the high pressure system will
remain out over the plains through the period...leaving the region under
cold advection. Low clouds should gradually break from the
Upper level energy streaking across the Great Lakes Monday will
provide lift causing clouds to drop down into the region from the
north. The clouds should linger into Tuesday.
Temperatures will be more seasonal. After lows in the middle 20s to
lower 30s Sunday night. Highs will range from the middle 30s to lower
40s. Further cold advection on Monday should bring highs below
normal with highs into the 30s across the region.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
the 12z model runs show upper level low pressure becoming more
entrenched across the southwest states Tuesday and Wednesday next
week...while a longwave trough extends across much of the eastern
part of the country. A couple shortwaves will rotate through the
Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday...though a relatively dry airmass
will preclude much in the way of precipitation across the area.
Anything that does occur would be in the form of light snow
showers...or a mix of light rain and snow showers.
A period of dry weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday before
the upper level low in the southwest starts to eject toward the
Southern Plains on Friday. Overrunning precipitation should spread
well ahead of the upper level system...with rain and snow possibly
developing on Friday across the area. The 12z models...as well as
previous runs have shown various solutions with the speed and track
of this system. The latest GFS is much faster than the European model (ecmwf).
However...the 12z GFS ensemble and parallel GFS 500 mb pattern are more
in line with the European model (ecmwf)...so some preference is shown to the slower
European model (ecmwf) progression of the system in this forecast package. Given this
scenario...the chance for rain and snow should tend toward mostly
rain by Saturday...before diminishing Saturday night.
Aviation /16z Sunday through Thursday/...
aside from a lingering snow shower in the Post-frontal atmosphere
the precipitation has ended over taf sites for this morning. MVFR ceilings
will prevail for the next 24-30 hours and could see initial drops
to IFR with ceilings below 1kft early this morning. Visibilities should improve
dramatically with the coming day.
Initially had a nose of slightly warmer/drier air ridging into
western Ohio overnight but there was significantly more cloud
cover being shown on the 4km NAM versus the NAM and I adjusted the
taf sites to account for expected broken-overcast stratocu deck through
the forecast given the continued cold advection being noted.
Outlook...no significant weather is expected at this time.