Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1048 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014
low pressure will track northeast through the Great Lakes region
tonight and early Sunday. Southwest flow aloft will permit upper
level waves of energy to spark showers and thunderstorms as they
move northeast through the Ohio Valley. A cold front will cross
the region on Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
showers have diminished across the forecast area through the
evening. Activity has concentrated across the Tennessee Valley
closer to upper support. Models indicated an increase in the low
level jet overnight which should lead to showers developing across
most of the forecast area late tonight. Exception could be west
central Ohio where activity may not quite reach. Appears that the
greatest rainfall will be in northeast Kentucky and south central
Ohio although do not expect it to be excessive. Very moist
atmosphere will result in little if any thunder. But embedded
heavier downpours could bring a quick inch to a few locations.
Forecast temperatures look reasonable with lows in the upper 60s
for most places.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday night/...
more of the same is in the offing for Sunday and Monday. Zonal
flow through the entire atmosphere will not permit much in the
lines of nighttime cooling. Confluence in the lower levels will
pool moist air over the region in a SW-NE orientation ahead of the
pressure trough associated with the northeastward ejecting surface
A brief lull in the showers and thunderstorms will occur
Sunday night and early Monday as upper flow becomes more westerly
and permits the moisture-laden air to move east to PA. However...no
period or area can be considered to not have an increased threat
for showers/thunderstorms through this forecast period. Southeast
of Kiln stands a better chance of being drier Monday/Monday night as the
large scale forcing and incoming cold front will be north-northwest of the
region. Surface winds never shift west/north and the boundary
layer will remain moist and ripe for showers to develop if an
upper level shortwave does pass through.
Temperatures were blended with guidance which did not change more
than a degree or so in any location. Highs will be muted by
precipitation...especially Sunday. PM lows will only have a chance to
drop into the upper 60s to around 70 for much of the County Warning Area.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
forecast period begins with cold front pushing through area. Have bumped
probability of precipitation up a bit with enough moisture and consensus of timing. Cut back
probability of precipitation Tuesday night as front appears to be moving out of County Warning Area and high
pressure building in. Ridge will provide the only certain dry day
for Wednesday. Warm front Wednesday night into Thursday appears to
provide axis of moisture with disturbances moving along it. Have
kept probability of precipitation low for now with confidence not great on timing and
coverage. This sets up more Summer heat and humidity for the end of
the week with approaching front by Saturday. Will keep small probability of precipitation in
Temperatures continue to be above normal through the period. Tuesdays highs
dependent on clouds and precipitation but believe enough sun will return
for late in the day rise. Coolest air on Wednesday but still above normal.
More heat late week with temperatures at or approaching 90 degrees.
Aviation /03z Sunday through Thursday/...
waves of showers will occur across the region overnight. Although
kday will be on the northwest edge of the precipitation
initially...showers will spread over that site as well...likely
after 06z. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm...but
probability looks quite low at this point. Only expecting
visibility reductions with the precipitation for the early part of
the taf period. Eventually there will be sufficient moisture along
with some heavier rainfall to cause ceilings to fall relatively
quickly to below 2000 feet. Ceilings will likely end up IFR for a
period of time around or after 12z. Appears that most precipitation
will move off to the east on Sunday morning. Low confidence on
whether any further activity will develop late in the taf period.
If it does...it appears that the Cincinnati terminals have a
somewhat higher chance of getting additional showers or storms.
Ceilings should slowly lift through the afternoon.
Outlook...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities will likely
develop late Sunday night and persist into Monday morning.
Thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Tuesday night.