Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
435 PM EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
an upper level low will continue to move east tonight. A cold
front will approach the area on Tuesday and begin to move through
the region Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. The frontal
boundary will stall out across the area for the middle of the week.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
shower and thunderstorm chances across extreme eastern portions of
the forecast area will taper off this evening as the upper level low
continues to move to the east. Dry conditions can then be expected
for most of the overnight hours. There will be increasing clouds
overnight in advance of the next system that will bring
precipitation to the area on Tuesday.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/...
shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through the day on
Tuesday in advance of a cold frontal boundary. The greatest
coverage is expected to be during the afternoon and into the
evening hours. A few of the storms could become strong to severe
with damaging winds the primary threat. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will persist into the overnight hours as the frontal
boundary stalls out across the region. Heavy rain will also be
possible with some of the thunderstorm activity.
The warmest temperatures on Tuesday will be across southeast portions of
the forecast area where it will take longer for the precipitation to work
into the area. The coolest temperatures Tuesday night will be
across northern portions of the forecast area north of the frontal boundary.
Winds will increase for the daytime hours on Tuesday. Wind gusts
around 25 miles per hour will be possible at times.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
frontal boundary will be stretched across the forecast area at the
beginning of the period with waves of low pressure traveling along
it. 12z models showing some differences with amplitude and timing of
these waves. But nonetheless expect unsettled conditions through
Upper high over the southeast US will strengthen as it starts to
retrograde. Forecast area will be on the northern periphery of the
high which will evolve into northwest flow over the weekend. Frontal
boundary will become ill-defined but guidance is suggesting that
some vestige of it could remain in the vicinity which would serve as
a focus for convection...especially as weak disturbances move
through the upper flow.
An upper trough will develop into the Great Lakes on Monday. This
will push a low into the region and increase the chance of rain.
Lows will be at or above normal through the period. Highs will start
out below normal but then warm above normal over the weekend only to
start dropping back on Monday.
Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/...
an area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere
remains east of the area and some thunderstorms that formed near
Newark this morning have since dissipated. Not expecting much
redevelopment this afternoon as drier air moves in from the west.
Overnight... lower visibilities will be possible at kluk but a
stronger pressure gradient will help to keep winds stronger than
previous nights. This will help to mitigate some of the restricted
During the day Tuesday winds will be on the increase as the
gradient tightens and a cold front approaches from the west.
Forecast soundings from the GFS and NAM are showing instability
starting around noon out ahead of a potential line of showers and
thunderstorms in association with a cold front. High res models
are indicating some development ahead of the line with the line
arriving between 1 and 4 PM at Dayton and then pushing through cvg
an hour or two later. There is uncertainty on whether the line
will hold completely together as it moves through. The NAM and GFS
are also indicating MVFR/ IFR ceilings possible as showers and
thunderstorms pass overhead. For now have left as a thunderstorms in the vicinity. Later
taf packages will continue to refine this.
Outlook...thunderstorms likely Tuesday evening. Thunderstorms
possible Wednesday through Friday.