Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
316 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2015
high pressure will settle across the Ohio Valley tonight allowing
for a cold start tomorrow morning. The high will then move east
of the region on Sunday. A cold front will move through the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
a broad area of surface high pressure will stretch from southeast
Texas through Ohio and into the northeast this morning allowing
for temperatures to quickly fall. Winds have been a bit gustier
today than initially forecast but should quickly decouple as the
sun GOES down. There are some cirrus moving overhead which will
help slow the fall in temperatures a bit but given position of
surface ridge and calm winds have gone slightly below guidance.
Some rural areas could also see patchy frost tomorrow morning but
should only be a couple of sites so have just mentioned in severe weather potential statement.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday night/...
Sunday another upper level low will pinch off over South Carolina
allowing the jet stream to pull north taking the cooler weather
with it. 850 temperatures will quickly rise from 6 degrees c to
near 12 degrees c Sunday afternoon. NAM guidance again going cool
Sunday but given warming 850 temperatures and retreating upper level jet
have gone closer to GFS/ Euro guidance. A potent shortwave will be
cutting across southern Canada Sunday bringing the next front to
affect the area with it.
Monday morning the shortwave will wrap up into a low just north of
Minnesota. 850 temperatures will continue to rise Monday
afternoon to around 14 degrees c. This should translate high
temperatures into the middle 70s Monday afternoon. Monday night a
surface cold front will cross the area dropping the temperatures
down to slightly below normal. Precipitation chances with the front dont
look to impressive. Lift with the front also looks rather weak.
Omega fields almost show nothing. Vorticity advection also
slightly lags the front. Given the weak lift... average precipitable waters ...
and no instability think chance of rain is low. Have cut back probability of precipitation
to slight chance.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
surface high pressure will build into the area through middle
week...providing for dry conditions through at least Thursday. Cold air advection
Tuesday morning will transition to more of a neutral advection
pattern through the afternoon...but with a cooler airmass settling
into the area...expect highs on Tuesday in the low to middle 60s.
Temperatures will moderate a bit for Wednesday with highs in the middle
to upper 60s with similar readings expected for Thursday.
Short wave energy dropping down across the Great Lakes Thursday into
Friday will help push another cold front southeast across our area
late Thursday night into Friday morning. The 12z European model (ecmwf) has trended a
little farther north with this feature and is now more similar to
the 12z GFS. With somewhat limited moisture...will maintain a dry
forecast at this point. High pressure and a cooler airmass will move
into the area behind the front heading into the weekend. Highs on
Friday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s...cooling into the middle
to upper 50s for Saturday.
Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/...
high pressure and dry air settling into the region will allow
primarily VFR conditions to continue through the taf period. While
skies remain mainly clear and winds become calm...br may reduce
visibility late tonight at luk. Other sites should stay VFR due to
the dry airmass. Winds will shift from northeast to southwest with
speeds around 10 knots during the day slightly above guidance.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.