Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
437 am EDT sun Oct 26 2014
surface high pressure will build into the region today. The high
will move east tonight and Monday as a warm front lifts northeast
into the Great Lakes. A cold front will approach the region from
the west Monday night...and will move through the region Tuesday.
High pressure will establish itself again across the Ohio Valley
by middle week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
surface high pressure to our west this morning will build east
into the region today. A dry airmass will be in place with little
cloud cover expected. Cold air advection in the wake of yesterdays front will
result in cooler temperatures. Still...highs ranging from the
lower 60s northeast to near 70 southwest are slightly above
normal for late October.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
models are converging on a more consensus solution for the next
weather system to affect our region on Tuesday. The NAM is a slow
outlier and will be discounted. Will use a blend of the GFS/CMC as
the European model (ecmwf) seems just a smidgen too slow.
Surface high pressure will begin to move east tonight and will
push off to the east on Monday. Meanwhile...a middle level ridge will
move across the region. Skies will start out mostly clear this
evening...but we should see an increase in high level moisture
plus some lower level clouds as a warm front approaches from the
southwest. Lows will bottom out during the early morning
hours...but then should steady out or slightly rise toward morning
as southerly flow increases.
On Monday...a warm day is in store. Middle level ridge will push east
while a middle level trough digs east into the northern plains. Warm
front will lift northeast into the Great Lakes. We should see
filtered sunshine on Monday along with locally breezy conditions
in the wake of the front. 925 mb temperature schemes still suggest
highs in the middle 70s north to around 80 south. Although these
readings will be some 15 to 20 degrees above normal...records at
the three major airports appear safe. Am forecasting highs of
77...78 and 80 at cmh...day...and cvg. Records are 81 (1963)...81
(1897)...and 84 (1940) for cmh...day...and cvg.
For Monday night into Tuesday...a cold front will push east
through the Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley. Decent moisture
convergence along and ahead of the front will bring a high chance
for precipitation. Instability will be quite low Monday night into Tuesday
morning with perhaps an uptick in instability across our east/southeast
Tuesday. In either case...will still call for widespread showers
and a chance of thunderstorms. Although a strong low level jet
will be in place...it appears that the low level 0-3 km shear will
not be favorable for a fast momentum push of any enhanced
convective line. As such...believe severe threat will be low with
just some enhanced gustiness expected out of more robust showers
and embedded storms. Will continue to monitor should this current
thinking change. Lows Monday night will be warm under southerly
flow...mainly in lower 60s. Highs Tuesday will be cloud and precipitation
dependent. Have gone with upper 60s west to the Lower/Middle 70s
For Tuesday night...cold front will push east/southeast away from
the region. Skies will become mostly clear to partly cloudy behind
the front with precipitation pretty much ending across the east/southeast
during the early evening. Cooler and drier air will filter into
the region overnight.
For Wednesday into Wednesday night...surface high pressure will
settle into the Ohio Valley. Partly to mostly sunny skies are
expected on Wednesday with much cooler temperatures in the middle 50s
to the lower 60s. Under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies
Wednesday night...lows will drop into the upper 30s to the lower
Long term /Thursday through Saturday/...
surface high pressure will move east of the area on Thursday. A
cool airmass will remain over the area with highs in the middle to
upper 50s expected. Short wave energy dropping down across the
Great Lakes will then help carve out a deepening trough over the
eastern United States through the end of the week. As this short
wave drops down into our area...expect a chance of showers to
develop later Thursday night and into the day on Friday. This will
also be accompanied by a reinforcing shot of colder air.
Temperatures will be well below normal toward the end of the week
with highs on Friday in the upper 40s to lower 50s...cooling into
the middle to upper 40s by Saturday. It also looks like the potential
for a fairly widespread freeze later Friday night into Saturday
Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/...
very quiet weather conditions are expected through the taf
period...with clear skies expected through the next 24 hours. West-northwest
flow will continue overnight...increasing in strength slightly on
Sunday. On Sunday night...winds will become much lighter...before
shifting to the southwest.
Outlook...thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.