Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
429 am EDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Synopsis...
a weak cold front will move through the region today. High
pressure will build in for the weekend.

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Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a weak cold front in Northwest Indiana early this morning will
slide across the forecast area today. Moisture and lift are quite
limited and the chance of measurable rain looks minimal at best
with a somewhat better chance in the north. But at this point do
not think it even warrants a mentionable pop. There will be a fair
amount of clouds between those associated with the front and those
with a system moving through the southeast. However still expect
temperatures to warm to near or slightly above persistence.

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Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/...
high pressure tracking across the upper Great Lakes will build
into the region through the weekend. This should result in mainly
clear skies. Temperatures will cool slightly for Saturday but then
rebound into the 70s on Sunday.

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Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
southerly flow between departing high and an approaching cold
front will allow for above normal temperatures to continue into
Monday. 00z models in decent agreement moving a cold front through
the area Monday night/Tuesday morning. Have generally gone with
Middle Range probability of precipitation. However given time of day the chance of thunder
looks limited. Another high will build in behind this front. There
will be a temporary cool down on Wednesday with a quick recovery in
readings on Thursday.

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Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. A weak cold
front will move through the taf sites on Friday. Moisture is
limited with this feature and therefore left precipitation mention
out of the tafs. The best chance for a shower would be middle day to
early afternoon at kday however due to the low probability have
left mention out of the taf at this time. Clouds will increase
across the taf sites on Friday however ceilings will remain VFR.

Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Monday into
Tuesday.

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Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.

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Synopsis...
near term...
short term...
long term...
aviation...Novak