Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
608 PM EST Thursday Feb 11 2016
scattered flurries will end this evening with surface high pressure
building into the region proving dry conditions overnight. A
strong cold front will push through Friday accompanied by snow
showers. Cold Arctic air will settle in for the weekend. Another
system will push through the region Sunday night and Monday
providing a chance for winter precipitation.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building into the
region overnight. Scattered flurries which developed across the
north in cyclonic low level flow and daytime heating will diminish
early this evening. Expect low clouds across the north to give way to
clearing this evening but middle/high level clouds will increase
overnight. Cold temperatures to continue with lows from around 10
degrees north to near 15 south.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...
digging shortwave to drop southeast through the Great Lakes
Friday and through the region Friday night. Weaker embedded short wave in
the flow to pass to our south late tonight/early Friday. In warm air advection
pattern in between these systems...weak isentropic lift develops
Friday morning. This will lead to a chance of snow showers with
the highest probability of precipitation across the south. Any accumulation should be less
than an inch. Expect highs on Friday to range from the middle 20s
north to the lower 30s south.
Arctic cold front associated with digging middle level short wave to drop
south through iln/S forecast area early Friday evening. In strong low level cold air advection
pattern expect scattered snow showers with favorable fetch
developing off Lake Michigan. Very cold with lows in the single
digits Friday night. These cold temperatures combined with 10 to 15
miles per hour wind will result in wind chill readings of zero to 15 below
zero. Will continue to highlight these wind chills in the severe weather potential statement
product Friday night and Saturday.
800 mb temperatures of -20 to -25 degree to settle over the region
Saturday. Favorable fetch off Lake Michigan to continue to
produce scattered snow showers. Very cold temperatures will
struggle to reach highs only in the teens.
Arctic high pressure to build into the region by Sunday morning.
Expect lake effect snow showers to end early with skies becoming
mostly clear Sunday night. Very cold lows from the single digits
below zero to the single digits above zero by Monday morning.
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
a weak wave of low pressure traveling through the Great Lakes may
bring some light snow on Sunday. A potent low pressure system is
forecast to develop over the Southern Plains on Monday before moving
across the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. A large
swath of moisture and lift ahead of the low will drop precipitation
over the iln area. Expect snow to start Monday...changing to rain
for most of the area Monday afternoon and evening. Uncertainty of
low track and temperature profiles give lower than average
confidence but it appears that most locations will see accumulating
snow before the change to rain. Drier conditions by late Tuesday
will be followed on Wednesday by a low chance for rain and snow
showers that could form along a weak frontal boundary. Dry weather
is indicated for Thursday with high pressure centered to the
Temperatures will start out cold Sunday with highs around 20. Warm
advection will bring warmer temperatures thereafter. Highs in the
30s Monday and Tuesday may increase to the 40s by Thursday.
Aviation /23z Thursday through Tuesday/...
VFR stratocumulus clouds are gradually dissipating and moving to
the northeast...but at least some of these clouds may remain in
place going into the overnight hours. There remains a slight
chance of some flurries at kcmh/klck for the next few hours...with
little to no impact to visibility. Winds overnight will become
light and variable.
On Friday...mid-level clouds will gradually thicken...with
another round of thick stratocumulus development expected by late
morning and early afternoon. Ceilings will likely drop to the MVFR
category by early to middle afternoon. As this occurs...southwesterly
winds will increase in strength...turning to the west as they
become somewhat gusty (20-25 knots).
Very late in the period...a cold front will approach from the
north. This will bring a chance of snow showers. Once the front
passes...winds will switch to the northwest...with gusts of up to
Outlook...MVFR ceilings are possible Saturday into Saturday
night. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with precipitation from
Sunday through Tuesday.