Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
640 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

high pressure will build across the region for the weekend. A
cold front will then move through the area on Monday.


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
cold front is in the far southeast counties and quickly moving out
of the area. A few Post frontal showers will still skim across
the far southern counties late this afternoon before moving off to
the east southeast. Quite a bit of cloud cover behind the front.
So it will take some time for skies to clear overnight. Forecast
lows a bit below guidance in the northwest counties where skies
will clear earliest and a bit above guidance in the south where
clearing will be much later.


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
high pressure will build across the region on Saturday and move
off to the east on Sunday. Very dry air mass will be in place with
perhaps only some high clouds. Temperatures will drop to slightly
below normal Saturday and Saturday night. With the return of
southerly flow and a brief period of upper ridging temperatures
will rebound and be about five degrees warmer than the previous


Long term /Monday through Friday/...
a cold front will be approaching the area at the start of the long
term period. The front will move through during the afternoon and
into the evening hours. The GFS has come more in line with the
European model (ecmwf) with this feature. Moisture will be limited with this feature
however believe light precipitation will move through during this
time. Went with a chance of precipitation at this time. There is
not much in the way of instability and therefore kept thunder
mention out of the forecast.

Monday will be the warmest day of the long term. After the passage
of the cold front cooler weather will be in store for the remainder
of the week with high temperatures generally in the 60s and lows in
the 40s.

Generally expect high pressure and dry conditions for the remainder
of the long term. There are some indications of weak disturbances
moving through however there is not a strong enough or consistent
enough signal to include precipitation chances at this time.


Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
the cold front and left over rain has pushed southeast of all the
taf sites this evening leaving borderline MVFR/ VFR ceilings in place.
Forecast soundings show the clouds slowly starting to erode
overnight as drier air works in from the north. There is a slight
chance of some patchy fog at kluk overnight but with drier air
working in and winds remaining above calm think chance is limited.
During the day tomorrow VFR expected. Some passing cirrus expected
with little to no daytime cumulus forecasted. Winds will start to turn
towards the northeast as high pressure moves into the region but
will remain relatively light. significant weather expected.


Iln watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...
short term...
long term...Novak

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations