Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
343 PM EDT Friday Mar 14 2014
gusty southerly winds will occur ahead of a cold front that moves
through tonight. A brief period of precipitation will be possible
with this frontal passage. High pressure will briefly build in
Saturday before a low tracking across the Tennessee Valley spreads
wintry precipitation across the area on Sunday and Sunday night.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
have expanded a Wind Advisory for all of the western counties of
ilns forecast area as observations continue to indicate Wind Advisory
criteria. This corresponds with 925 mb winds of 40 to 45 knots
which are mixing down to the surface at times. Also sustained winds
are pushing into the 25 to 30 knots. In the far southeast...outside of
this region...winds should just stay below advisory criteria. The
advisory is in effect until 7 am EDT.
Digging middle level shortwave to track through the Great Lakes tonight.
Associated surface low pressure to track east through the northern Great
Lakes with surface cold front dropping southeast through ilns forecast area between 00z and
06z. System lacks moisture at onset with better chance as the
front pushes southeast and convergence/moisture come together. Will start
probability of precipitation out in low chance category and then increase to likely over the
southeast. System is progressive so expect a quick shot of mainly rain
to end prior to temperatures getting cold enough for a change to
a wintry mix. Low temperatures to range from near 30 across west
central Ohio to he upper 30s across S central Ohio/NE Kentucky.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
in split middle level flow area of confluence to work across Ohio. Weak
surface high pressure to build east across the region Sat/Saturday
night. Saturday should start out mainly clear early with an increase
in middle/hi level clouds during the day. Temperatures expected to be
near normal...ranging from the middle/upper 40s northwest to the middle/upper 50s
Expect to see middle/hi level clouds thicken Saturday night with
precipitation staying to our south. Lows expected to range from
the Lower/Middle 20s northwest to the Lower/Middle 30s south.
Southern stream energy to induce a surface low which tracks through the Tennessee
Valley sun/Sun night. NAM is furthest north with surface low track and
therefore has precipitation spreading further north and more warm air aloft.
GFS takes the surface low far south across the northern Gulf states...keeps
precipitation mainly snow and suppressed to south. Sref mean and the European model (ecmwf)
solutions offer more of a compromise. Complex situation with two
pieces of middle level energy phasing and at this timeframe the
numerical models typically struggle on resolving these situations.
Therefore will trend the forecast solution toward a blended compromise at
this time. Will allow precipitation to develop across the south in
response to isentropic lift by late morning and then spread north
during the day. For precipitation type will allow for a mix in the far south
and snow across central and north. Potential exists for several
inches of accumulating snow sun/Sun night.
Will continue to highlight this potential in the severe weather potential statement product. Expect
below normal highs Sunday with low level NE flow. Highs to range
from near 30 northwest to the upper 30s southeast. Lows Sunday night to range
fro the middle teens northwest to the upper 20s southeast.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
kept a chance of snow in the east Monday morning when a shield of
moisture associated with low pressure will be moving east as the low
reaches the Atlantic Ocean. A ridge of high pressure and dry weather
will follow the low for Tuesday. A strong cold front coming from the
west will likely push a band of showers across the area late
Wednesday to early Thursday. High pressure and a dry weather regime
appear to be in store for late Thursday through Friday.
Chilly highs close to 40 are expected for Monday behind the low.
Moderation to near normal 50s can be anticipated by Wednesday as
warm advection takes hold ahead of the cold front. Highs may slip
back to slightly below normal 50 Thursday and Friday in the wake of
the cold front.
Aviation /20z Friday through Wednesday/...
surface low pressure will track east across the northern Great
Lakes/southeast Canada through this evening. It will then push
northeast toward the upper St. Lawrence River valley by 12z
Saturday. As it does...an attendant cold front will move southeast
through our region...and the taf sites between 00z and 06z. Before
then...diurnal mixing combined with a tight surface pressure
gradient will result in windy conditions. South/southwest winds of
20 to 25 knots with gusts between 35 and 40 knots will be possible
until about 22z. Evening cooling and a relaxing pressure gradient
will allow winds to diminish this evening as the cold front moves
into the area. Models continue to struggle on the coverage and
intensity of showers along and ahead of the cold front. Think all
taf sites will either see some sprinkles or light showers but
without visibility restrictions. Likewise...ceilings should drop
into the 4k to 5k range. By late tonight...high pressure will
build into the region from the northwest. Skies are expected to
On Saturday...high pressure will move into the area. Some passing
middle to high level clouds are expected.
Outlook...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. MVFR ceilings may linger into
Monday. MVFR conditions possible Wednesday.
Ohio...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ohz026-034-035-
Kentucky...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for kyz089>099.
In...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for inz050-058-059-