Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
649 am EDT Wednesday may 6 2015
a warm front will continue to lift off to the northeast allowing
for warm and humid conditions to continue through the weekend. The
chance of showers and thunderstorms then begins to increase Sunday
into Monday as the next cold front approaches the area.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
today looks to be another warm and dry day as upper level ridging
builds overhead. Some high res models are showing some very light
showers again in the afternoon but think this is way overdone.
The 0 z Kiln sounding showed a Stout cap at 700 mb with limited
moisture. Given the stronger ridging this afternoon and slightly
warmer 700/850 temperatures have kept with the dry forecast. High
temperatures this afternoon also look to be a tad warmer than
Tuesday afternoon. 850 temperatures Tuesday morning were around 12
degrees c with 850 temperatures this morning forecasted to be around 13.5
degrees. Due to this... high temperatures in the middle 80s looks likely this
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/...
Wednesday evening again looks mild as Ohio remains in the warm
sector. A coastal low Thursday morning will drift off the coast of
South Carolina helping to erode the ridge over southern Ohio. A
weak Rex block over the area in combination with an upper level
low trying to pinch off over the western United States will slow
down the upper level flow. With the ridge starting to break down
Friday there might be enough instability in our far western zones
for some thunderstorms but as of now it looks like the best upper
level lift will be west of the area. This means Thursday and
Friday look to stay mostly dry with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
models have come slightly more into agreement for this weekend but
subtle differences in the European model (ecmwf) from GFS/CMC continue to muddle
the forecast. The upper level low over the western United States
will make little progress Saturday as the main upper level flow
tries to head east. The main issue models tend to be struggling
with is the surface low and its corresponding middle level reflection
off the coast of South Carolina. The Euro is slightly stronger and
further north with the system. This bulges the ridge axis further
towards the north. The GFS is weaker with the system and slightly
further south. How does this affect our area? With a weaker ridge
axis on the GFS this allows a front to slide south into our
northern counties Sunday evening into Monday morning and stall.
The Euro stalls the front over northern Michigan. The GFS/ CMC
solution is a much wetter solution with the stalled front while
the Euro has better focus towards the north. Eventually the low
over the western United States gets picked up in both the GFS and
Euro and brings a front across the area Tuesday. Both the GFS and
European model (ecmwf) bring a good swath of rain through the area late Monday into
Tuesday with front. This looks reasonable given 1.6 to 1.70"
forecasted precipitable waters and decent Omega values.
Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
an area of stratus and vlifr fog has been sagging very slowly south
across Northern Ohio this morning. It does look like the southward
progression has slowed so think it should stay just north of kcmh
through middle morning. Areas of MVFR br elsewhere across the area
should also dissipate through middle morning.
A middle level ridge axis will remain in place across the region
through the remainder of the taf period. Some scattered cumulus
development will be possible into this afternoon. Scattered cumulus
this afternoon should dissipate by this evening with mainly clear
skies expected tonight. This could once again lead to some areas of
MVFR fog later tonight...especially at kluk.
Outlook...thunderstorms possible Sunday.
Ohio...dense fog advisory until 10 am EDT this morning for ohz026-034-