Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
144 am EDT Friday may 24 2013
Synopsis...
an upper level trough will move through the area overnight. High
pressure will build into the region for Friday and remain across
the area through the weekend.
&&
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
an upper level trough will continue to move through the forecast area
overnight. Wind gusts will subside over the next couple of hours
however expect winds to stay up through the night. Cloudy
conditions will start out the near term however as dry air begins
to work into the area expect cloud cover to begin to decrease
across the forecast area. How fast the clouds clear out will have an impact
on temperatures. Went close to guidance for temperatures with lows
in the low to middle 40s.
&&
Short term /6 am this morning through Saturday night/...
high pressure will continue to drop down into the region on
Friday. A very dry airmass will battle with cold air aloft to
decide how much fair weather cumulus will develop. Looks like there
could be some clouds in the morning...then mostly sunny for the afternoon.
The forecast area will be under full control of the high Friday night. Expect
clear skies and cool conditions. East of Columbus...could see some
frost develop...so will keep the mention in the severe weather potential statement.
By Saturday...the region begins to feel the affects a energy
riding over top of the 500 mb ridge to the west. Some models bring a
strip of precipitation by Saturday afternoon and evening across the SW part
of the forecast area. At lower levels however the high is still in control
and the atmosphere looks dry. So decided to keep the forecast dry
for now.
The energy drops to the southeast for Saturday night...lessening the
chance of precipitation in the SW.
Tomorrow will be cool with highs in the lower to middle 60s. As
mentioned before clear skies and light winds Saturday night will
allow temperatures to cool rapidly. East of Columbus temperatures
are forecast to fall into the middle to upper 30s. Elsewhere should
see lower 40s. Highs will begin to rebound for Saturday pushing
back into the middle 60s.
&&
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
high pressure over the Great Lakes will nose into the Ohio Valley
and keep a dry and cool airmass over the region Sunday and Monday.
Surface high moves offshore early next week with drying southeast
surface winds over the Ohio Valley.
Upper level ridge in the central Continental U.S. Will prevail with general
northwest flow in the Ohio Valley. GFS is showing a short wave undercutting
500 mb ridge and bringing precipitation to the region Monday. This appears
to be consistent from yesterdays forecast but the European is also
consistent with showing this feature much further southwest as an
elevated convergent band at this time.
The European permits this undercutting of the established 500 mb ridge
on Tuesday and is showing a more traditional warm frontal features
in the Ohio Valley...also supported by the GFS and Canadian model.
This front is very broad in nature and forecast is uncertain as to
if there will be enough of a gradient to help force showers in a
somewhat unfavorable upper level pattern...underneath the axis of
the 500 mb ridge.
Upper level flow is showing a broadening of the 500 mb ridge as it moves
over the eastern third of the country. Am continuing the increased
probability of precipitation expecting middle level disturbances to undercut the ridge after
Monday but increasing through the week.
Expect a gradual warmup each day...starting in the upper 60s to
around 70 Sunday...warming to near 80/low 80s by Wednesday...possibly
reaching middle 80s by Thursday. PM lows will be comfortably cool
around 50 Monday morning under a dry airmass and then warm past the
climatological norms to reach middle 60s by the latter part of the week.
&&
Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/...
MVFR ceilings will persist for several hours before high pressure
and drier air work in from the north and clouds move out around
13z. North winds will continue to gust over 2o knots through the
day in the tight pressure gradient ahead of the high center. Winds
will become light after 00z Saturday as high clouds move in on a
northwesterly flow aloft.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.
&&
Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Novak
near term...Novak
short term...sites
long term...franks
aviation...coniglio
