Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
842 PM EDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Synopsis...
a weak cold front will dissipate as it pushes through the forecast
area overnight and widely scattered showers will diminish. High
pressure will build across the Ohio Valley Saturday into
Sunday...allowing for dry weather conditions and near normal
temperatures. Chances for showers and storms will gradually
increase from Sunday afternoon into the new week.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
the frontal boundary continuing to weaken as it's currently
extending from just north of ind/day to near mfd. Diurnal
diminishing of showers continuing...with no lightning at this
time. Skies to clear overnight with continued light west-northwest winds.
Current temperature forecast looks good. Adjusted precipitation
chances again as the showers weaken and dissipate.

&&

Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
in northwest flow pattern surface high pressure to build across
the Ohio Valley Saturday. Expect a good deal of sunshine in
relatively dry airmass. Temperatures will be at or slightly below
normal with highs from the lower 80s north to the middle 80s south.

A return southerly flow will develop on Sunday on the back side of
retreating surface high pressure. An increase in moisture will lead to
marginal instability ahead of an approaching front. Will continue very
low probability of precipitation across the northwest late in the day Sunday. Highs on Sunday to
be close to normal...ranging from lower 80s north to the upper 80s
south.

The weak surface front will push southeast and further weaken and lose its
identity Sunday night. Will continue low probability of precipitation into the evening and
then allow chances to diminish. Lows Sunday night look to be in
the middle and upper 60s.

&&

Long term /Monday through Friday/...
multiple waves of precipitation are expected through the long term
period. With some disagreement with timing and strength of these
features have gone closer to the European model (ecmwf) for the long term period.

A frontal boundary will move across the area on Monday. This
feature will remain near the area into Tuesday. A better chance of
precipitation will be on Wednesday as an area of low pressure
approaches the region. This feature will begin to move out
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. After this time have dry
conditions for the remainder of the forecast. The GFS tries to
bring another round of precipitation into the region Thursday night
into Friday however went with the drier European model (ecmwf) solution at this time.

Monday is expected to be the warmest day of the long term period.
With cloud cover associated with the low and then cooler air moving
into after the passage of this system...expect temperatures only in
the 70s to low 80s for Wednesday through Friday.

&&

Aviation /01z Saturday through Wednesday/...
showers diminishing as the frontal boundary weakens and pushes
into a more stable and drier environment. Winds to remain westerly
overnight but should become nearly calm at the southern terminal
locations...so continued with a period of IFR a kluk in the 09-11z
timeframe.

The high pressure centered to our south will drift across
Kentucky Saturday with VFR conditions and just scattered diurnally
driven clouds.

Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible late Sunday and Sunday
night in scattered storms.

&&

Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Arkansas
near term...jdr
short term...hatzos/AR
long term...Novak
aviation...jdr

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations