Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
608 am EST Monday Nov 30 2015
a warm front will lift north across the area this afternoon into
tonight before a cold front pushes east across the Ohio Valley
during the day on Tuesday. This will lead to an increasing chance
of showers through the first part of the work week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
showers have developed this morning across far southern portions
of our forecast area in association with a weak low to middle level deformation
axis. This axis is forecast to shift slowly east and weaken
through middle morning...so expect the best chance for precipitation with
this to pivot into far southeast portions of our forecast area and begin to
fall apart some through daybreak. Otherwise...low level flow will
become southerly and begin to increase through this afternoon.
This will lead to developing isentropic lift from south to north
and an increasing chance of showers through middle to late afternoon.
Clouds should help keep temperatures down but this will be countered
somewhat by the developing low level warm air advection later today. Highs should
range from the upper 40s north to lower 50s in the south.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/...
showers will become more widespread this evening as the
isentropic lift continues to increase and deeper moisture
overspreads the region ahead of an approaching cold front. Precipitation
will then continue into Tuesday morning as the cold front pushes
into our forecast area and east of our area by middle afternoon. Precipitation should
taper off from west to east across the area as drier air moves in
behind the front. Will go with some non diurnal temperature
trends given the warm air advection tonight into Tuesday morning and then
developing cold air advection behind the front on Tuesday afternoon.
A middle/upper level trough axis will push east across the Great
Lakes region through the day on Wednesday. The combination of
this...some cyclonic low level flow...and increasing low level
lapse rates...should lead to isolated to possibly scattered
shower development later Wednesday morning into Wednesday
afternoon. The best chance for this will be across northern
portions of our forecast area...closer to the deeper wrap around moisture.
Low level thermal fields mostly support rain...but if the precipitation
does become somewhat convective...suppose some wet snow may mix in
with some of the rain showers. Expect highs on Wednesday mainly
in the 40s.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
large surface high pressure then takes control for the rest of the
forecast period. A warming trend will occur for the later half of
the week...with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday into
Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/...
VFR conditions currently for the terminals... but cvg has started
to report hints of the MVFR deck working its way north. Forecast
soundings still showing ceilings falling through the afternoon across
the terminals as a warm front advances north. High res models
aren't showing much in the way of precipitation this afternoon which
isn't surprising given moisture profiles. Monday night into
Tuesday morning an upper level low will approach from the west
along with a surface cold front. High res models are in general
agreement with bringing rain into the southern terminals first
Tuesday morning and then moving it through all the terminals by
middle Tuesday morning. There are some members showing the precipitation
developing furthering east and then missing the taf sites. This
solution does appear to be in the minority. Precipitable waters ahead of the
front jump to above an inch and Omega values indicate lift moving
overhead of the terminals. Given the global models support of lift
and moisture have weighted the tafs towards the wet solution.
Ahead of the front winds will also continue to veer towards the
Outlook...MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected into Tuesday. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities are possible Wednesday afternoon into