Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
631 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015
an upper level low over the southeastern U.S. Will finally move
off into the Atlantic Ocean. This will allow high pressure at the
surface to build in gradually across the Ohio Valley...resulting
in dry conditions and warmer condition today through Wednesday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
moisture being pulled northwest around the 500 mb over the southeast U.S. Continues
to affect the region with lingering light showers/sprinkles. Some
of this could linger past sunrise. Included the mention of a light
shower or sprinkle in the forecast for the first couple hours of
For the rest of the day...the 500 mb low will begin to transition off
the East Coast bringing an end to the moisture feed. Clouds will
begin to gradually break up as a drying easterly flow kicks in.
Peaks of the sun this afternoon will help temperatures to warm
nicely. Highs should make it up around 70 this afternoon.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/...
as the 500 mb low pulls away into the Atlantic...it will be replaced
by an upper ridge. By Monday...surface high pressure will settle
south into the region from Canada. As this occurs skies should be
Highs Monday and Tuesday should make the lower and middle 70s...with
lows in the lower to middle 50s.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
a weak cold front will move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
but this feature is moisture starved with main short wave well to our
north. Surface high pressure will then build southeast across the great through
A short wave and associated surface frontal system will drop southeast through the Great
Lakes...providing a chance of rain Thursday night/Friday. Ahead of
this system...temperatures will continue to be above normal with
highs on Wednesday and Thursday in the lower and middle 70s.
Lower confidence in the forecast solution develops next weekend. European model (ecmwf)
keeps a nwrly flow with surface high pressure offering dry weather
Saturday. GFS hangs back southern energy and points toward a chance of
showers. At this time have trended forecast solution toward drier solution and
hold off mention of precipitation until Sat night/Sunday and only low probability of precipitation.
Temperatures look to turn a little cooler with highs generally in the
upper 60s to near 70 next Saturday.
Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
while a scattered VFR shower can not be ruled out this morning it
appears that the majority of precipitation in the region is done
with. Northeast winds around 10kt will persist as low pressure in
the Gulf states moves offshore tonight and trails Hurricane
Joaquin on Monday.
As drier air works in cmh/lck may see middle cloud deck at or above 9kft
erode quicker than other sites and have only scattered clouds topped by
passing cirrus deck.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.