Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
224 am EDT Wednesday Jul 8 2015
a cold front will cross southeast through the region tonight. It
will lay out a boundary along the Ohio River Wednesday which will
then lift northward. A strong low pressure system will track
towards this boundary early Thursday morning...followed by a cold
front that will set up a similar repeating process for the latter
part of the week.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
since widespread flood threat has diminished across much of the
area...dropping flash Flood Advisory for most Ohio counties and for southeast Indiana.
Will keep watch for most northern Kentucky counties and for southeast Ohio.
Frontal boundary is currently situated southwest to northeast
across our area. A weakening mesoscale convective vortex is evident on the radar pushing
east across northern Kentucky and in the wake of it...there is not
much left in the way of precipitation at this time. The frontal boundary is
expected to stall out across southern portions of our forecast area
overnight. This could allow for scattered redevelopment in the
shower activity from time to time tonight...especially in vicinity of the
boundary across southern portions of our forecast area. Instability will
remain very marginal so think any thunder will be spotty.
Lows tonight will range from near 60 northwest to around 70
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Thursday/...
front will lay out in the vicinity of the Ohio River early
Wednesday and the threat for continued moderate to heavy rain
continues over Kentucky for the latter part of the watch that is still
in effect for the morning hours.
The front lifts northward during the day and a strong surface low
pressure circulation noses towards Northern Ohio overnight
Wednesday. Highs Wednesday in the Post-frontal atmosphere will
range from around 70 in the north to around 80 in the south.
Overnight lows Wednesday night will be in the middle 60s for most areas.
A lull in the rain is expected Wednesday evening and the better chances
for rain overnight will be to the northwest where the circulation
is expected to enter.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
unsettled weather conditions are expected through most of the
extended forecast period. Heights will begin rising over the
southeastern states on Thursday morning...and in the westerly flow
just to the north...a shortwave and surface low will likely
combine to produce a significant amount of rain and storms for the
Northern Ohio valley. Model trends have been a little further
north today with this convective complex...with enough confidence
to include likely probability of precipitation for the northern half of the iln forecast
To the south of this surface low...and trailing well to the west...a
frontal boundary will settle to the south of the iln County Warning Area on Thursday
evening. As ridging continues to build over the southeastern
states...this boundary will pivot and move north as a warm front on
Friday and into Saturday. With generally weak
forcing...precipitation chances will be largely diurnal...and
gradually decreasing from each day (thursday into Friday into
saturday). However...temperatures will increase...as warm advection
is expected to continue through the weekend. Highs near 90 degrees
are expected in the southern third of the County Warning Area on Saturday.
By Sunday...the large ridge / upper high over the southern states
will be retrograding westward...placing the Ohio Valley into a
pattern of falling heights and upper flow that shifts to the northwest.
With respect to the eventual evolution of upper troughing in the
Great Lakes region...model solutions become quite divergent with
regards to the details. However...it is clear that precipitation
chances will exist through at least Monday and Tuesday...with
temperatures decreasing slightly from the values experienced over
Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
a frontal boundary which has slipped south of all the taf sites
will stall out across northern Kentucky this morning. Except for some drizzle
at times across kcvg/kluk precipitation will stay south of the taf sites this
morning. MVFR ceilings will drop to IFR at times in the moist environment
with low level cold air advection.
The front will lift back to the north today. Instability is
marginal at best today. As a result will limit precipitation to just rain showers/vcsh
Expect ceilings to remain in the MVFR category through most of the day
and then possibly improve to VFR this evening with the front lifting
to the north.
Light north winds at less than 10 kts will become NE today and
then SW tonight around 10 kts as the front lifts north.
Outlook...thunderstorms possible through Friday.
Ohio...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ohz081-082-
Kentucky...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for kyz089-090-