Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
157 am EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Synopsis...
an upper level disturbance will move along and south of the Ohio
River tonight into the first part of Tuesday. Later on
Tuesday...a cold front will sag south across the region. This
front will interact with another upper level disturbance to
continue the threat for showers and storms. Both systems are
forecast to exit the region late Tuesday night...allowing
precipitation to come to an end as high pressure builds into the
region.
&&
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
it will be a difficult near term forecast as models are having a
tough time handling how far north current showers and thunderstorms
south of the Ohio River will get. Have used a blend of radar
trends and the latest hrrr to bring likely probability of precipitation along and south of
the river with decreasing chances north of the river. This
activity was being caused by an approaching upper level shortwave along
with some 850 mb-700 mb deformation. Skies should remain cloudy
overnight given considerable convective debris blow off. Overnight
lows will drop into the middle 60s for most locations.
&&
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Wednesday/...
the threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday
as one short wave exits and another one approaches from the
northwest. At the same time... a cold front will sag south into
the region. The highest concentration of storms may be over
the southeast counties in the morning where greatest forcing and
moisture will coincide with exiting first aforementioned short wave.
A few storms could become severe helped by a moderate middle level
westerly flow. Thunderstorms will diminish Tuesday night with loss
of daytime heating and as the cold front/short wave tandem exit
southeast. Highs Tuesday will reach the low 80s with lows Tuesday
night back into the 60s.
&&
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
middle level ridge builds into the nations middle section at middle week
with flow becoming northwesterly over the Ohio Valley.
Surface high pressure to build southeast becoming centered over the region
Wednesday. This high will provide dry weather conditions and offer
temperatures a little below normal Wednesday and close to normal
Thursday.
Middle level ridge axis to slide east into the middle MS valley by the end
of the week. A southerly low level flow will develop on the back
side of this retreating surface high pressure for the end of the week.
This will allow for a warming trend for the end of the week into next
weekend. Highs on Friday are generally expected to be in the middle
80s.
Some model solution differences exist regarding how far east the ridge
builds and resultant...heat and suppression of deep convection.
Latest operational European model (ecmwf)/GFS would suggest that widespread
convection will hold off through Saturday. Will allow slight chance probability of precipitation
Saturday night and low pop chance to develop Sunday with some
evidence that a thunderstorm complex will dive southeast into the Ohio
Valley. Since a good deal of uncertainty exists at this timeframe
regarding timing and placement have limited probability of precipitation. Surface front to lay
out across southern Great Lakes Monday. Will continue a low pop chance for
precipitation with the best chance across the north.
In the warm sector expect highs in the middle/upper 80s both Saturday/
Sunday and into early next week.
&&
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
first of two 500 mb short wave that will affect the tafs during the taf
period is swinging across Kentucky at this time. This energy is helping to
drive the convection across Kentucky and southern Ohio. Best lift from this
short wave will work east quickly at the beginning of the period. The
convection is waning...so it looks like the taf will remain dry
for the first part of the period.
Models bring second shortwave in the northwest flow aloft to the region
between around 00z. This feature...along with lingering
instability near and behind a stalled front will trigger another
round of convection. Kept the mention of thunderstorms in the vicinity/cumulonimbus at the terminals
starting at 18z. The best chance of precipitation might be around 00z as
the best lift from the short wave moves. That is a little far out to add
a tempo right now. For the 30 hour taf at kcvg...shortwave should be
moving past by 06z...so brought the precipitation to an end at 06z.
Outlook...thunderstorms possible this evening.
&&
Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...coniglio/Hickman
near term...coniglio/Hickman
short term...coniglio
long term...Arkansas
aviation...sites
