Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
639 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015
high pressure will build into the area today and move off to the
east tonight. A warm front will lift across the region Tuesday
morning which will be followed by a strong cold front Tuesday
afternoon and evening. A disturbance will spread precipitation
well north of the front and back into the area on Wednesday into
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
high pressure centered over the upper Midwest early this morning
will build into the area through the day. Low clouds across the
eastern counties at the beginning of the period will move off in
the morning. Should only be some high clouds the rest of the day.
High temperatures are forecast generally at or slightly above
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
high pressure will move off to the east tonight with a warm front
developing across Kentucky. A low level jet will push into the
region bringing strong warm air advection and moisture transport.
But shallow cold dome will remain. So as precipitation develops
towards daybreak Tuesday in the western counties...expect it to
fall as freezing rain. Sleet will also be possible across northern
counties where cold air will start out a little deeper. Surface
temperatures will slowly warm with the chance of freezing
precipitation ending by midday. Light ice accumulations will be
possible on Tuesday.
Warm front will lift north of the region in the afternoon allowing
temperatures to warm to near or above normal by late in the day.
In fact temperatures may continue to rise into the evening. There
will be showery precipitation in the warm sector during the
afternoon. Cold front will move through from northwest to
southeast in the late afternoon and evening. Heavier rainfall will
be possible along and ahead of the front as precipitable water
approaches 300 percent of normal. In addition with snow melt from
warmer temperatures adding to runoff...flooding remains a
Front will push well south of the region late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. But there will be some precipitation lingering behind
the front. Freezing/frozen precipitation may mix in on the back
side of the precipitation. This should clear most of the forecast
area by Wednesday morning.
00z guidance showing differences in handling upstream energy that
will move towards the region late in the period which will affect
the amplitude of a downstream ridge. This will be critical in
determining where active zone will be as disturbances moves
through the west southwest flow. Have opted to use the European model (ecmwf) which
is a middle of the Road solution. Following this suggests that
precipitation will spread back into the forecast area Wednesday
evening and Wednesday night. Could be quite a bit of quantitative precipitation forecast across
the southern counties. And with cold air continuing to spread in
from the northwest...this precipitation will likely become
accumulating snow. Plenty of uncertainty with the potential for
most precipitation to stay south of the region as per the GFS or
heavier precipitation being further north per the NAM.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
there may still be precipitation lingering in the southeast
counties at the beginning of the period. Thereafter high pressure
will build across the area Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will
be back to well below normal. And if there is fresh snow cover
then temperatures could plummet Thursday night. Temperatures will
start to rebound on the back side of the high for the weekend
although still remain below normal. There are some mixed signals
concerning potential for precipitation on Sunday. Have opted to
follow gefs mean and keep the area dry for now.
Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/...
high pressure and dry conditions can be expected for most of the
taf period. Some MVFR ceilings across the area will move out early in
the taf period. VFR conditions can then be expected through the
remainder of the taf period except for the longer kcvg taf. A
system will begin to move into kcvg at the end of the taf period.
Precipitation is expected to start out as freezing rain and then
transition to rain during the day on Tuesday as temperatures warm.
Outlook...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Tuesday
into Wednesday night with a wintry mix of precipitation.