Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1247 am EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015
a warm front will lift north across the area this evening before
a cold front pushes east across the Ohio Valley Tuesday. Low
pressure that the cold front is associated with will lag
significantly and cross the lower Great Lakes region Wednesday.
High pressure will build in for the latter part of the week and
entrench itself over the region for the weekend.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
initial surge of showers is quickly spreading into the forecast
area. This precipitation will continue east northeast across
primarily the southern counties. Just north of the showers
visibilities have dropped and so have added fog to the forecast
north of the better chance of rain through the night.
Still appears that there will be a bit of lull in rain before next
round of lift makes it way into the region late tonight. This will
spread showers further north.
Temperatures will slowly rise overnight.
Short term /6 am this morning through Wednesday night/...
showers will be prevalent along and southeast of the I-71
corridor early in the day. The cold front will push east from late
morning into early afternoon and dictate the back edge of any
rainfall. Temperatures will drop as the front passes...with
morning highs in the west and readings in the Scioto valley
maximized around noon or shortly thereafter.
A significant dry punch behind the front will let things clear out
and low temperatures will drop to the middle 30s northwest of I-71
corridor...around 40 southeast of it.
As the associated surface low and middle/upper level trough axis
moves east across the Great Lakes region Wednesday...an increased
threat for some showers or sprinkles will be found in the
north...along with generally cloudy skies and cooler highs on
Wednesday. Readings will be hard pressed to get out of the 40s
here but could flirt with 50 along Ohio River and in northern Kentucky.
With a clearing expected Wednesday night...everyone should bottom out
around the freezing mark by daybreak Thursday.
Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
forecast period begins with the forecast area on the edge of exiting surface
cyclone over New England and surface high over the central and Southern
Plains. The high will build in on Thursday and control the regions
weather for much of the period.
By Monday...the models kick energy out of the MS valley and into the
Ohio Valley. The GFS is a little quicker than the European model (ecmwf) with the
system reaching our forecast area. That far out ran a blend of the two
solutions. At this time the atmosphere looks warm enough to support rain.
A warming trend will occur for the later half of the week and into
the weekend. Highs Thursday look to be 45 to 50...reaching the upper
40s to lower 50s for Friday...Saturday and Sunday. Monday will be a
little cooler... back to 45 to 50. Lows will be around 30 for the
majority of the period.
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
IFR to LIFR ceilings are in place across the region early this
morning. Visibilities have also dropped into IFR to LIFR...especially
along and ahead of the precipitation shield lifting up across northern
Kentucky and southern Ohio. Expect this precipitation to continue to lift
northeast over the next few hours with kday and possibly kcmh/klck
remaining on the edge of the better precipitation. Additional shower
activity will then develop later this morning ahead of an
approaching cold front with IFR ceilings persisting through rest of
the morning. Precipitation chances will come to an end as the front moves
through with ceilings lifting up into MVFR category for this
afternoon. Drier air will then push into the area tonight with
clearing conditions this evening.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning.