Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1104 am EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will extend across the region through the weekend
and move off to the east on Monday. A cold front will move through
the area Monday night into Tuesday morning.

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Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
high pressure centered over Ontario will extend south across the
region today. Based on the latest 925 mb temperature
forecasts...have nudged temperatures up a little across the southern
two thirds of the County warning forecast area. The northern County warning forecast area looks to be on track and much
cooler given east-northeast air flow coming off a Cold Lake Erie.
Thus...under mostly sunny skies...highs will range from the lower
60s north to the lower 70s along and south of the Ohio River.

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Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/...
high pressure will continue to influence the region into Monday as
it slowly shifts east with time. Cloud cover will be at a minimum
into Sunday night with perhaps some diurnal cumulus. Dry
atmosphere will result in a fairly large diurnal range. After a
relatively cool night tonight readings will rebound to above
normal and remain there through the rest of the period. Moisture
will start to increase on Monday in advance of a cold front off to
the west. Although forcing is not particularly strong or
organized...there are some indications that an isolated shower or
storm cannot be ruled out in western counties Monday afternoon.

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Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
a cold front will cross the area Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Showers still seem likely with this system. Instability
looks limited at this point with only a slight chance of thunder.
High pressure will build in for Wednesday and Thursday. Cool down
will be brief with readings slightly below normal Wednesday and
then back above normal on Thursday. Next cold front is forecast
to move into the region on Friday bringing another chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

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Aviation /15z Saturday through Wednesday/...
some patches of IFR ceilings are located north of the kday and kcmh
taf sites. There are breaks in between these patches and therefore
did not include the IFR ceilings in at the tafs. Have a scattered
mention of the lower clouds however it is not out of the question
that IFR ceilings briefly move into kday...Kiln...and kcmh. In
addition MVFR visibilities have also developed north of kday. With the
winds starting to pick up kept kday with VFR visibilities. Winds will
continue to pick up for the daytime hours with some gusts around
18 to 20 knots. A few cumulus will be also be possible during the day
today. Wind gusts will subside this evening and skies will clear out.

Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Monday
night into Tuesday.

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Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...
near term...Hickman
short term...
long term...
aviation...Novak