Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
448 am EST sun Nov 23 2014
a deepening low pressure system will pull a large swath of
moisture and showers northward into the region today into tonight.
A strong cold front will swing across the area Monday bringing
additional showers along with windy conditions. Colder air will rush
in behind the front and will linger for the middle of the week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
area of showers associated with a 500 mb vorticity maximum is beginning to pull
out to the north. Focus now shifts to short wave energy that will lift out of the
lower Mississippi Valley and into the region tonight. Strong 800 mb
jet noses in this afternoon...helping focus the lift. Models are
still indicating that showers will overspread the area from the
south mainly during the afternoon hours. Kept categorical probability of precipitation
across S...but tapered probability of precipitation down to high chance in the northeast counties.
The strong warm air advection today will push highs into 55 to 60 degree range.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/...
area of categorical probability of precipitation will push north across the region this
evening. Then as the nose of the 800 mb jet pushes north the showers
will become scattered from S to north.
Models are still showing some spread with the strength of the surface
low that lifts through the western Great Lakes Sunday night into
Monday. This affects the timing of the associated cold front. The
GFS remains deeper with the low and quicker with the front. The
consensus of the other models to be a little weaker with the low
and to push the front across the region Monday morning. This
solution looks reasonable. NAM is showing some surface instability so
added a mention of thunder with frontal passage Monday morning. Highs on
Monday will occur early in the day and will range from the upper
40s in southeast Indiana to around 60 in the extreme east. Strong winds
aloft will get pulled down just behind the front in the cold air advection. Gusts
over 40 kts will be possible.
Some light wrap around precipitation will be possible Monday night. Precipitation
amounts will be very light and kept probability of precipitation low. Temperatures will
fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s Monday night. A weak surface
ridging tries to build in for Tuesday. Highs will range between
the middle 30 and middle 40s.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
iln/S forecast area between systems on Wednesday as surface high pressure shifts east
on Wednesday. Below normal temperatures to continue with highs ranging
from the middle 30s north to the lower 40s south.
Clipper type system to drop southeast through the Great Lakes with associated
cold front sweeping east through iln/S forecast area early Thursday. Will bring
snow in Wednesday night and continue into Thursday. Some precipitation mix with be
possible across the south. Have leaned toward the colder European model (ecmwf) solution
and have limited any mix to the southeast. Best probability of precipitation across the north closer
to the surface wave. Early highs on Thursday to range from the lower 30s
northwest to near 40 southeast.
In northwest flow and cold air advection some lingering snow showers possible Thursday
night. Surface high pressure to build in on Friday providing continued cold
temperatures and dry conditions. Highs on Friday to range from the
lower 30s northwest to the upper 30s southeast.
Surface high pressure to build across the region as middle level flow backs
westerly. A quick return low level flow to develop on the back side
of the retreating high. Will hold off on any warm air advection precipitation until Saturday
Aviation /09z Sunday through Thursday/...
area of showers will skim kday and kcmh/klck with a brief MVFR
shower possible at kday before daybreak. Area moves east-northeast and
a brief lull in showers over the region is found until about noon
with MVFR ceilings. Scattered showers in the afternoon may precede
the main body of heavier rain which should enter before nightfall.
Prevailing rain with IFR ceilings/visibilities and a potential for LIFR
conditions at times will be found through the end of the valid taf
period with the exception of a dry punch noted to begin at
kcvg/kluk 4-5z. VFR showers will still be possible in the expected
lull that should last through daybreak in most locations. South
winds overnight will see gusts to 25 and 30kt.
Outlook...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities to continue into
Monday as a strong cold front moves through the region. Gusty
southwest winds around 35 knots likely Monday into Monday night.
MVFR ceilings possible Monday night into Tuesday. MVFR/IFR
conditions possible Thursday.