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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
704 am EDT Sat Nov 1 2014

strong north winds will continue to usher cold air into the
region. Snow showers mixed with some rain showers will come to an
end as high pressure begins to build into the Ohio Valley today.
The colder air will remain in place through the weekend with a
hard freeze expected tonight. High pressure will slide off to the
east by Monday leading to a warming trend. A cold front will bring
a chance for showers Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
upper level low to continue digging southeast through the Tennessee Valley and into
the southeast US today. Precipitation has transitioned over to snow in
all but the far eastern counties where a mix and even rain was
being reported. As colder air advects in the rain will change over
to rain at all sites. Precipitation showing signs of diminishing in
coverage and this trend will continue through the morning into early
afternoon when all precipitation comes to an end as favorable forcing comes to
an end. Warm ground above freezing should limit any accumulation to
grassy areas and generally a few tenths of an inch or less. In
tight pressure gradient winds will continue to gust up to 35 miles per hour
and then will diminish late this afternoon. In low level cyclonic flow
expect clouds to hold into the afternoon and then to begin to break up
in the west late. Temperatures will be greater than 15 degrees
below normal with highs ranging from the upper 30s northwest to the lower
40s southeast. Have continued the freeze warning across all but the far
east this morning.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/...
middle/upper level trough axis to shift east tonight placing the Ohio
Valley in northwest flow. Surface high pressure to build southeast with ridge axis
to the Indiana/Ohio state line by Sunday morning. Skies will clear
from the west tonight...with temperatures falling below freezing
everywhere. Expect a hard freeze with lows in the middle and upper
20s. Have replaced freeze watch with freeze warning for entire forecast area
overnight into Sunday morning.

Surface high pressure to build across the region Sunday. After a
cold start to day...high temperatures are expected to be in the
middle and upper 40s.

As surface high shifts east...a return southerly low level flow will
develop in its backside Monday. Expect partly cloudy conditions
with an increase in warm air advection middle/hi level clouds. Temperatures will
moderate with highs from the middle 50s NE to around 60 SW.


Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
temperatures will be significantly warmer than previous days
ahead of a cold front that will cross on Tuesday and Tuesday
night. An elongated axis of rain will occur along the front as the
low pressure spawning it strengthens and occludes over Hudson Bay.

Tuesday will be the warmest day ahead of the front as temperatures
rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s. If cloud cover holds
back...strong advection ahead of the front could support a 5 degree
jump in highs on this day. Wednesday and Thursday will be near seasonal
normals and then see a drop as high pressure in the central U.S.
Ushers in cooler air. GFS and Euro differ on the evolution of the
high with the GFS further west and stronger pushing in cooler
air...and the Euro actually over the region permitting a warm up with
more westerly winds.


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
moisture associated with an upper low continues to provide less
than ideal flight conditions with lowered ceilings and vicinity
showers. All locations have MVFR ceilings. Scattered snow showers
will change to rain showers while decreasing in coverage and
intensity as the upper low moves farther south. MVFR will persist
until 23z when high pressure and a dry airmass will bring mostly
clear skies. Winds will be rather strong...gusting over 20 knots
out of the north...before subsiding under 10 knots late in the
forecast period. significant weather expected.


Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...freeze warning until 10 am EDT this morning for ohz026-034-035-
Freeze warning from midnight EDT tonight to 10 am EST Sunday
for ohz026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
Kentucky...freeze warning until 10 am EDT this morning for kyz089>100.
Freeze warning from midnight EDT tonight to 10 am EST Sunday
for kyz089>100.
In...freeze warning until 10 am EDT this morning for inz050-058-059-
Freeze warning from midnight EDT tonight to 10 am EST Sunday
for inz050-058-059-066-073>075-080.


near term...Arkansas
short term...Arkansas
long term...franks

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