Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
715 PM EDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015
a cold front will move through tonight into Wednesday morning
bringing showers to the area. High pressure will then move into
the region during the day on Wednesday and keep dry conditions
across the area through the day on Friday.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
winds have dropped below Wind Advisory criteria and therefore have
let the Wind Advisory expire. Winds will continue to gust around
30 miles per hour the next couple of hours however expect wind gusts to
continue to decrease this evening.
A cold front will approach and move through the forecast area tonight into
Wednesday morning. Precipitation chances will increase along and
ahead of this feature. Have precipitation chances ranging from a
chance across the far northwest to categorical across the southeast half of the
forecast area. Instability is limited therefore kept thunder mention out of
the forecast however an isolated thunderstorm will be possible. As
colder air moves in a few snowflakes may mix in across extreme
northern portions of the forecast area however believe this will be isolated
and decided not to include in the forecast at this time.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/...
winds will pick up during the day on Wednesday although not
expecting wind gusts as high as Tuesday. Expect wind gusts around
35 miles per hour. Rain showers will move out of the forecast area during the morning
hours and surface high pressure will begin to work into the area.
With cool airmass in place and decent cloud cover for a majority
of the day...temperatures will be limited to the upper 40s to
Clouds will begin to clear out late in the day leaving clear to
mostly clear conditions across the area Wednesday night. Wind
gusts will decrease in the evening however expect the winds to
stay up a little bit across most locations Wednesday night. Winds
will have the potential to limit some of the frost however expect
more frost along and south of the Ohio River where winds will be
lighter. Although the greater frost potential will be across
southern portions of the forecast area there is a greater potential for
freezing temperatures across northern portions of the forecast area. Decided
to hold off on a freeze watch at this time due to expected
temperatures being so close to freezing. Added patchy frost
mention in across the entire forecast area for Wednesday night into the severe weather potential statement
and added freeze mention in the severe weather potential statement for across the north.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
a cool pattern is indicated by models showing a persistent upper
trough over the eastern Continental U.S.. dry weather is expected for Thursday
and Friday when high pressure is forecast to extend across the Ohio
Valley along a northwest upper flow. Low pressure and a rather large
swath of moisture is indicated for Saturday...producing rain
showers. Another dry period is shaping up for Sunday and Monday with
the return of high pressure. Showers may return on Tuesday with a
trough of low pressure...but model solutions are not in good
agreement and confidence is low for this event.
Temperatures may stay below normal through the period. Highs are
forecast to be in the 50s most locations Thursday through Saturday.
Frost may occur Thursday night when lows in the 30s are expected.
Highs in the low to middle 60s may be attained Sunday through Tuesday.
Normal highs for this period are in the middle and upper 60s.
Aviation /23z Tuesday through Sunday/...
gusty west southwest winds will persist through 00z. Gustiness
should diminish quickly after that with sustained winds decreasing
a bit. VFR conditions will prevail with mostly middle level clouds
for the first half of the period. Lower level moisture will move
in with the next disturbance that will swing through late tonight.
Expect some showers and possibly a period of MVFR conditions.
After showers move out lower clouds will remain for the latter
part of the period. At this point it appears this will be a VFR
ceiling. West winds will increase some and become gusty although
not nearly as strong as today.
Outlook...west to northwest winds gusting up to 30 knots expected