Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
408 PM EDT Monday Aug 31 2015
an upper level disturbance will remain near the area through
Wednesday. A ridge will then begin to build into the region for
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will dissipate across
the area this evening. A few of these showers and storms will be
capable of producing funnel clouds late this afternoon into the
early evening hours. This type of funnel cloud is typically short
lived and very rarely touch down. The atmospheric conditions of
these funnels is not supportive of strong damaging tornadoes. On
the rare occasion that these funnels do touch the
ground...little...if any damage occurs.
With the upper level disturbance near the area some cloud cover
will linger through the overnight hours. Went close to guidance
for low temperatures with lows in the middle to upper 60s.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night/...
an upper level low will move across the region Tuesday into
Wednesday before beginning to exit the area. This feature will
allow for an increase in cloud cover primarily during the daytime
hours in addition to isolated to scattered shower activity.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible during the daytime hours.
Went on the cool side of guidance for temperatures on Tuesday with
upper low and decent cloud cover. Went close to guidance for high
temperatures on Wednesday. High temperatures will generally be in
the 80s and lows in the 60s.
Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
large middle/upper level ridge over the nations middle section to build a
little east and dominate our weather from the end of the week into next
Numerical model solutions generally similar with mainly dry and warm
weather through the long term forecast period. This ridge will act
to inhibit widespread thunderstorm activity due to a lack of
enhanced forcing. For the period Thursday through next weekend... can
not rule out diurnally driven isolated convection but due to limited
coverage and probability...have opted to keep the forecast dry except
for slight chance probability of precipitation Friday afternoon.
Short wave moving through the northern tier of states pushes into Great Lakes by
next Tuesday. This feature will flatten the northern portion of the
middle/upper level ridge with surface front expected to push into Ohio
Tuesday. Uncertainty increases at this time frame with timing
differences in deterministic model solutions. Have slight chance probability of precipitation Monday
afternoon ahead of this system with a better threat for precipitation next
Above normal temperatures to continue with highs generally in the
upper 80s. A few spots will likely hit 90...especially over the
south and southeast.
Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/...
a weak upper level low will close off and drift westward toward
the east central Illinois/west central Indiana border through 12z
while a middle level ridge builds to our east. Thereafter...the
closed low will drift back to the east on Tuesday. Meanwhile...a
surface ridge will remain over the Ohio Valley.
There will be little in the way of airmass change between today
and Tuesday. Once again...diurnal convection has developed in the
heat of the day. Due to the weakly forced synoptic scale
environment...there is little in the way of focus with a slow
moving nature noted to the precipitation. Have employed thunderstorms in the vicinity/cumulonimbus
once again at all taf sites through 01z Tuesday. Thereafter...we
should see a fairly quick dissipation to the convection with skies
become partly cloudy to mostly clear. Light to calm winds and
lingering low level moisture will bring MVFR...local
IFR...visibilities to the taf sites overnight. Kluk will see
lower conditions (below airfield minimums) due to river fog. On
Tuesday...fog will dissipate between 13z and 14z...giving way to
scattered-broken cumulus/moderate cumulus/cumulonimbus once again. There will be a
threat of a diurnal shower or thunderstorm...to small to mention
in the tafs at this time.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.