Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
647 am EST Friday Feb 12 2016
an Arctic cold front will move through the area late this
afternoon and this evening. High pressure will eventually build
across the area Saturday night. A warm front will lift into the
region Sunday into Sunday night.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
short wave over southern Illinois early this morning will track
south of the region today. There is light snow north of this
system and some of that may move across far southern counties this
morning. Confidence in measurable precipitation is not very high.
Thus probability of precipitation remain in the chance category.
An Arctic cold front will push into the northwest counties late in
the day. As it does scattered snow showers will develop into the
area. In addition tightening pressure gradient will result in
increasing winds and some gusts.
MOS looked like it had a reasonable handle on highs.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
cold front will push through the remainder of the forecast area
during the evening. Scattered snow showers and flurries will
continue. Appears that the most organized snow showers will be
along the front as it moves through Northern Ohio...which may
brush by some of the northern parts of the forecast area. There is
some potential for the activity to be more squall like along the
Expect a streamer to develop off of Lake Michigan with some of
that activity moving into the northwest counties. This may end up
being flurries more than snow showers by the time is gets this far
southeast. This plume off of the the lake will gradually shift...
lifting north across the forecast area...as the winds back on
Saturday. Any activity will end Saturday night as high pressure
builds across the region.
Winds will be gusty along and behind the front with some
diminishing in speed later in the night. However that will still
be enough in combination with cold temperatures to result in wind
chill falling below zero late tonight into Saturday morning. There
will be a rather limited rise in air temperatures on Saturday. So
wind chill readings will get no higher than the single digits and
then fall back below zero Saturday evening until wind becomes
light and variable as the center of the high moves across. Some
areas are forecast to be around the -10 threshold for Wind Chill
Advisory. But not enough confidence to issue an advisory at this
The high moves off early Sunday and a warm front approaches Sunday
afternoon and then lifts into the area Sunday night. Snow will
develop out ahead of this front late in the day Sunday and
continue into Sunday night. At this point light accumulations
appear likely. Temperatures will be rising Sunday night.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
long wave trough will be across the region until middle week and then
move off to the east. Various pieces of energy moving through the
trough will bring chances of precipitation. But uncertainty in
timing and strength of these systems make forecast more
At this point believe that warm frontal snow will move off early
in the period with a bit of a lull in activity. But a large shield
of precipitation along and north of an area of low pressure that
will track form the Gulf Coast states to the middle Atlantic will
push into the region later in the day. Global models are
indicating different solutions in regards to how far north and
west precipitation spreads and also in thermal fields. A blend
seemed to fit the ensemble mean and appeared to be a prudent
approach to the forecast. Precipitation will increase again Monday
afternoon and pass off to the east Monday night. This may be a
rain/snow mix especially in southeastern counties. A secondary
system coming down in northwest flow is currently timed to move
through late Tuesday into early Wednesday. High pressure will then
build in Thursday.
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR and dry conditions will start out the taf period. A weak
disturbance will move just south of the taf sites this morning.
Although an isolated flurry is possible decided to leave out of
the kcvg and kluk tafs at this time. Better chances for snow
shower activity occur this evening into tonight as an Arctic cold
front move through the region. Lake effect snow showers will then
be possible through most of the overnight hours.
Winds will pick up through the day with wind gusts around 30 knots
by this evening into tonight. Winds will then start to decrease by
the end of the taf period.
Ceilings will gradually lower through the day today. MVFR ceilings are
then expected for most of the overnight hours. Visibilities will be
reduced with some of the snow shower activity.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings are possible Saturday into Saturday
night. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with precipitation from
Sunday through Tuesday.