Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
641 am EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014
high pressure will remain in control of the weather in the Ohio
Valley today. An upper level trough will cross the region tonight
but should be only noted by the increased cloud cover. A weak cold
front will cross the region Saturday and could spark some showers
during the day before passing eastward.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
have trimmed back the frost advisory significantly as cloud cover
is inhibiting tonights drop-off in temperatures. Areas north and
west of Dayton...and over portions of Indiana will still stand a
reasonable chance of dropping to the low and middle 30s this morning
and have been left in the advisory.
Any lingering cloud cover this morning will quickly decrease
today as the upper low exits and high pressure is established over
the region. With a warmer start to the day...have raised
temperatures from the previous forecast a few degrees but
generally made minor adjustments otherwise.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
high pressure will remain in control of the region with just a few
exceptions. The upper trough crossing tonight will only affect the
cloud cover and bring in slightly warmer low temperatures to
northwest County Warning Area. Eastern County Warning Area will maintain a relatively clear sky
cover and the Hocking hills east of Columbus may drop down to
support frost overnight and early Friday morning. The lower Scioto
valley will likely not drop as much and do not expect frost here.
The rest of Friday will be pleasant with highs in the lower to
middle 60s. A cold front will cross the region Saturday...and some
light showers may be forced out of the atmosphere as it passes.
Upper level flow is zonal northwest and does not provide any real
upward motion from the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere.
What showers that do occur Saturday should be short lived and
widely scattered in nature.
Even with expected increase in cloud cover Saturday...highs should
be 4-5 degree warmer than previous day and reach the upper 60s in
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
high pressure will work into the forecast area Saturday night and remain
near the area through Monday night. This will keep dry conditions
across the forecast area. Southerly flow develops on Monday which will allow
temperatures to warm into the 70s across most locations. This
southerly flow continues into Monday night and therefore low
temperatures will only drop down into the 50s.
Southerly flow increases more on Tuesday in advance of the next
system with wind gusts in excess of 30 miles per hour possible at times. There
are some differences in model timing and strength with the system
moving through Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Have precipitation
chances increasing through the day with the greatest chance of
thunderstorms Tuesday evening and then gradually tapering off across
the forecast area. Cooler air will usher into the area with the passage of the
cold front and high temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 50s and
Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
skies have finally cleared as subsidence from building high
pressure has eroded the SC.
Cirrus ahead of a digging 500 mb trough in the plains will slowly
increase today...becoming broken overnight. Some fog is possible
tonight at kluk....possibly down to IFR...but the building cirrus will
In the 30 hour cvg tafs ceilings drop down to 5k feet. There might be a
sprinkle or light shower after 12z Thursday...but feel the chance is to
low to mention right now.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.
Ohio...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for ohz026-034-035-
In...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for inz050-058-059-