Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
114 PM EST Monday Nov 30 2015
a warm front will lift north across the area this afternoon into
tonight before a cold front pushes east across the Ohio Valley
during the day on Tuesday. This will lead to an increasing chance
of showers through the first part of the work week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
dry conditions are in place across the forecast area this morning. Hi res
models are indicating the potential for some light preciptiation
across eastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon and there is some
weak lift across the area. Models seem to be overdoing
precipitation however given current radar and therefore limited
preciptiation chances to generally a slight chance for the daytime
Made minor adjustments to temperatures for today. With plenty of
cloud cover went on the cool side of guidance for high temperatures
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/...
showers will become more widespread this evening as the
isentropic lift continues to increase and deeper moisture
overspreads the region ahead of an approaching cold front. Precipitation
will then continue into Tuesday morning as the cold front pushes
into our forecast area and east of our area by middle afternoon. Precipitation should
taper off from west to east across the area as drier air moves in
behind the front. Will go with some non diurnal temperature
trends given the warm air advection tonight into Tuesday morning and then
developing cold air advection behind the front on Tuesday afternoon.
A middle/upper level trough axis will push east across the Great
Lakes region through the day on Wednesday. The combination of
this...some cyclonic low level flow...and increasing low level
lapse rates...should lead to isolated to possibly scattered
shower development later Wednesday morning into Wednesday
afternoon. The best chance for this will be across northern
portions of our forecast area...closer to the deeper wrap around moisture.
Low level thermal fields mostly support rain...but if the precipitation
does become somewhat convective...suppose some wet snow may mix in
with some of the rain showers. Expect highs on Wednesday mainly
in the 40s.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
large surface high pressure then takes control for the rest of the
forecast period. A warming trend will occur for the later half of
the week...with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday into
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
low ceilings will continue to push northward into the taf sites this
afternoon and evening. Expect them to remain across the region
through the night before slowly beginning to improve from west to
east on Tuesday.
Although a few showers will be around this afternoon and into the
first part of the night...better lift and moisture do not arrive
until late in the overnight hours and into the day on Tuesday.
Limit precipitation mention to a vcsh before this time and then bring in
the rain mention.
Reduce visibilities into the MVFR category overnight and into the day on
Outlook...MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected into Tuesday afternoon.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday morning.