Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
426 am EDT sun Apr 26 2015
surface high pressure will build into the region from the
northwest providing drier conditions today. Dry weather will
continue into the first part of the work week. While below average
temperatures are expected today...a warming trend will be observed
through the first half of the upcoming workweek.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
middle level flow features a ridge over the plains with elongated trough
over New England extending west into the Great Lakes. This places
the Ohio Valley in a northwest flow regime. Embedded short wave and surface
low to track off to the southeast with surface high pressure nosing in today.
Any lingering light showers will come to an end early this morning.
Expect considerable morning cloudiness with decreasing clouds this
afternoon. Temperatures look to be close to 10 degrees below normal...with
highs ranging from the middle 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/...
expect some clouds and wind overnight which may mitigate the
formation of frost. Tonights lows are expected to generally be in
the upper 30s.
Models showing a short wave rotating through the eastern Great Lakes Monday
around large upper low off the East Coast. This short wave is weakening and
with dry air in place have maintained a dry forecast with best moisture
to the northeast. Temperatures still below normal with highs
on Monday from the middle 50s northeast to the lower 60s southwest.
Another cool night Monday night with lower in the upper 30s to near
System to stay to our south Tuesday with surface high pressure over the
Great Lakes. Temperatures will moderate slightly but still remain
below normal with highs from near 60 NE to the lower 60s SW.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
short wave rotating around upper low over the Canadian Maritimes at
the beginning of the period will bring a substantial amount of cloud
cover especially to eastern counties but at this point it appears
that any precipitation will remain east of the forecast area. High
pressure will start to build in on Tuesday. Temperatures will be
below normal with the forecast near or slightly below guidance.
Northwest flow will prevail until late in the week when an upper
ridge starts to build in. Strongest short wave moving through the
flow will pass across the region on Wednesday. Have kept the
forecast dry for now although there are some indications that a few
showers could eventually develop. Beyond that the chance of rain is
minimal. Temperatures will slowly warm through the latter half of
the week with readings getting above normal by Saturday.
Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/...
MVFR ceilings at cvg and luk will persist for a few more hours
until low pressure departs to the east. Rest of taf sites will
see continued VFR...with clouds eventually decreasing in coverage
at all sites as high pressure and drier air work in from the
north. Winds will shift from northeast to north...with a few gusts
near 20 knots possible until later in the forecast when speeds
will subside under 10 knots.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings possible Monday.