Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
133 PM EDT sun Mar 9 2014
high pressure will slide east across the area today...resulting in
dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures. As the high
moves east...increasing southwesterly flow across our area will
lead to a warm up for Monday and Tuesday with above normal
temperatures expected both days.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
high pressure will allow for dry conditions across the forecast area today.
Cloud cover continues to erode across the forecast area however quite a bit
of cloud cover remains across southeast portions of the forecast area. Made minor
adjustments to temperatures based on current trends.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/...
the surface high will push off to the south tonight into Monday as
northwest flow persists aloft. It looks like the models are trying
to hint and some sort of weak convergent boundary possibly setting
up somewhere across our forecast area Monday night into Tuesday in
association with a pseudo warm frontal boundary. Moisture is very
limited so will maintain a dry forecast...but would not be
surprised to see a few sprinkles/light rain showers possible sometime
later Monday night or Tuesday across the area. In developing west
to southwest low level flow...temperatures should warm nicely both
Monday and Tuesday with highs ranging from the middle 50s north to
the lower and possibly middle 60s in the south.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
500 mb trough in the northern stream digs down out of Canada and into the
upper MS valley Tuesday night. In response...a low pressure center
develops on the fnt and rides eastward towards the forecast area. The GFS/European model (ecmwf)
take the low across Kentucky...while the Canadian hemispheric model is
stronger and quicker as it takes the low across central Ohio. The
00z European model (ecmwf) had been much warmer with the thermal fields than the
GFS...but the 12z European model (ecmwf) has now trended towards the cooler GFS.
Will run a GFS/European model (ecmwf) blend for the storm system Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Upped probability of precipitation late Tuesday night to categorical across the
southern half of the forecast area. Temperatures should be warm enough for
the precipitation to begin as rain...but then as the night progresses
colder air will filter in and the rain/snow line will dip south.
As the low quickly passes to the east Wednesday morning...critical
thicknesses will continue to drop south and the rain/snow line will
follow them. Went with an early high on Wednesday with temperatures
falling during the afternoon.
Some convective cold air advection snow showers will be possible Wednesday night on
the backside of the system.
By Thursday high pressure will build across the Ohio Valley. By the
end of the week a low will pass across the northern Great Lakes...but it
will drag a cold front into the region late Friday night into Saturday.
Right now it looks like the moisture with the front will be
limited...so left the forecast dry.
As mentioned above the storm system Tuesday night into Wednesday
will bring cold air back into the region. Lows Tuesday night will
range from around 30 in the northwest to around 40 along the Ohio River.
Temperatures on Wednesday will go up a few degrees before
beginning to fall back in the afternoon. Highs on Thursday are
forecast to only reach the middle 30s to lower 40s. Thanks to high
pressure on Friday temperatures should be back up around normal.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
low clouds will continue to dissipate in coverage through the
afternoon. MVFR ceilings will start out the taf period at Kiln and
kluk however expect MVFR ceilings to be short lived. VFR conditions
will then be present for the remainder of the taf period. High and
middle clouds will move into the area tonight into Monday. Winds will
pick up during the day on Monday with some wind gusts around 20 to
25 knots possible.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Tuesday night