Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
651 am EST Monday Dec 29 2014
high pressure will provide dry weather through Thursday. Meanwhile...
temperatures will slip below normal as colder air arrives on a
northerly flow around the high. Complex low pressure may bring
precipitation next weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
clouds have retreated overnight as surface high pressure has continued
to build southeast into the region. Cold advection on the eastern side of the
high will cause cumulus development this afternoon. The best coverage
should be in the north as the cold air comes across the lakes.
Additional low level moisture in Kentucky will combine with high
level moisture to bring additional cloudiness to extreme southern
locations. The central parts of the forecast area could end up seeing the most
Highs will be near normal today ranging from the middle 30s in the
north to the around 40 in the extreme southern counties.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/...
as the center of the high pressure drops down the plains over the
next couple of days...the region will be under cold air advection. Cumulus should
develop each day with the continued cold advection. Temperatures
will drop below normal. Highs will only make it into the upper 20s
to middle 30s Tuesday and the 20s on Wednesday.
Lows should drop into the upper teens across the north tonight with
middle 20s in the south. Colder temperatures are expected Wednesday
morning with lows in the teens and lower 30s.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
the main question for this period is the evolution of the
southwest Continental U.S. Upper level low and associated cyclogenesis east
of The Rockies. The 12z models have slowed the ejection of energy
from the southwest Thursday and Friday...and have also tended to
track the resulting surface low farther south. The eastern Pacific
Ocean upper level ridge almost takes on an Omega block appearance
Wednesday night...which would lend credibility to a slower
progression of the downstream system. This forecast leans toward
the 12z GFS solution as it is slower than the 06z GFS/00z
European model (ecmwf)...but not as dramatically slowed as the 12z European model (ecmwf). Given
this scenario...Friday probability of precipitation have been reduced relative to the
previous forecast since the onset of precipitation should be more
toward Friday night. Snow or a mixture of snow and rain will be in
the forecast for this time. BUFKIT soundings have some indications
of freezing rain Friday night...but too much uncertainty is still
in play for inclusion in this package. Snow and mixed
precipitation should turn to rain on Saturday before diminishing
Some chance for light snow and rain showers is maintained Sunday in
the wake of the departing system.
Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/...
cold advection on north winds at 8-10kt today will help keep the
stratus that was over southern taf sites a little more entrenched than
previously forecast. The drier air should work in from the north
and the cumulus/stratocu that is expected today will decrease in favor
of an as deck tonight.
Outlook...no significant weather is expected at this time.