Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
125 am EDT Sat may 25 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure will slowly slip eastward over the weekend. Very
cool temperatures at the start of the weekend will slowly
moderate. By Memorial Day...a warm front will begin to approach
the region and will bring a chance of precipitation.
&&
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
clear skies with very light winds and dewpoints in the 30s will
allow temperatures to rapidly drop late this evening and into the
early morning Saturday. Temperatures in the west have been cooling
a little slower than forecast...while temperatures in the east
appear on par with their current forecast. With several hours of
cooling ahead...it seems reasonable that current minimums will be
reached for the majority of locations. Therefore made only
near term tweaks to hourly temperatures and kept the previous
forecast minimums for tonight.
Previous near term discussion at 257 PM...
Dry air aloft associated with high
pressure building in has pushed much of the diurnal cumulus east of the
region. Any remaining cumulus should quickly dissipate over the next
several hours. This should leave the skies clear for the beginning
of the night and allow temperatures to cool rapidly. Some scattered cirrus
should try and build in after midnight...but it shouldnt have any
affect on holding temperatures up.
Forecast lows for tonight have the coolest temperatures in the
east...with the rural counties around cmh dropping into the middle to
upper 30s. Have issued a frost advisory for much of the rural
portions of central Ohio and the middle Scioto valley. Have some
patchy upper 30s speckled across the forecast area...but did not put frost
across the western half of the forecast area.
&&
Short term /6 am this morning through Sunday night/...
models continue to show a 500 mb ridge across the plains...which
leaves the Ohio Valley in northwest flow. Models drop upper level energy
down the east side of the ridge on Saturday. Several models are still
showing some precipitation working into the tri-state Saturday afternoon. Toyed
with the idea of adding a mention of sprinkles. But the lower
levels still look dry...so will pass the Buck to the next shift
and will leave the forecast dry.
Upper level energy drops S of the Saturday night allowing the high
to remain in control of the area.
On Sunday upper ridge begins to break down and warm front begins
to develop and work towards the area. Isentropic lift gradually
increase and by late Sunday into Sunday night...it looks like
there will be a chance of some scattered rain showers. Added low end chance probability of precipitation to
the forecast.
After a cool start Saturday morning....have the highs making the
middle 60s on Saturday. Looks like temperatures will fall back into
the 40s Saturday night...before making the upper 60s to around 70
for Sunday.
&&
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
a warm front with showers and thunderstorms will move into the Ohio
Valley from the west on Monday and then lift north overnight and
early Tuesday. Showers on the north side of the feature will prevail
but the models are showing a wide variation on when these start.
On Tuesday...temperatures will be 10-15 degree warmer than Monday as
flow turns south and warmer air of a more climatological nature gets
pulled in. With the warmer air is higher dewpoints which will
naturally bump nighttime lows significantly. Surface high pressure
offshore and a mean building ridge over the eastern third of the
country will keep highs in the low to middle 80s and lows in the lower
60s through the remainder of next week.
Aside from rain with the frontal passage early in the forecast...things should
remain dry for the remainder of next week.
&&
Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure sprawled from the Great Lakes to the Tennessee
Valley will bring VFR to taf sites...except at luk where br may
reduce visibility tonight. Otherwise...clear skies will give way to
middle and high clouds arriving on a northwest upper flow. Winds will
stay under 10 knots from the northwest.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.
&&
Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for ohz046-056-064-
065-073-074-082.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...sites
near term...latto
short term...sites
long term...franks
aviation...coniglio
