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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
155 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015

high pressure will continue to build across the region tonight
through Friday. A weak upper level disturbance will result in the
chance for a few showers and thunderstorms...primarily Saturday
night into Sunday. Seasonable temperatures are expected through
the weekend.


Near term /through today/...
cumulus have just about dissipated with loss of daytime
heating...leaving only scattered cirrus for sky cover. Surface high
pressure pushing east across the southern Great Lakes should result
in mostly clear skies persisting overnight. With good radiational
cooling...expect lows tonight down into the low to middle 50s with a
few upper 40s possible in outlying areas.


Short term /tonight through Saturday night/...
surface high pressure will push off to the east Friday into
Friday night...with return flow then developing. This will help
push temperatures up into the upper 70s to lower 80s for Friday.

Southwest low level flow will continue to increase Saturday into
Saturday night ahead of an approaching upper level trough. As
temperatures climb into the low to middle 80s on convective available potential energy
will push into the 1000-1500 j/kg range through the
afternoon...especially across northwest portions of our forecast area. The
combination of this and a 20-30 knot low level jet rotating up
across Indiana into Northwest Ohio...may be enough to produce
isolated shower and thunderstorm development across mainly the
northwest portions of our forecast area Saturday afternoon. As the upper
level trough approaches...will then allow for slight chance probability of precipitation
across the remainder of the forecast area Saturday night.


Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
the 27.12z models are starting to come into a little better
agreement with upper level flow patterns for at least the first half
of the extended period. Given the continued significant spread
amongst the gefs members however...confidence is still below normal
so have generally used a blend of the GFS/European model (ecmwf) and wpc guidance.

An approaching cold front will wash out across our area on Sunday as
a slow-moving middle/upper shortwave weakens over the lower Great
Lakes. These features will allow for a chance of showers and storms
mainly Sunday into Sunday night. Once the shortwave dissipates...the
GFS/European model (ecmwf) differ in their treatment of the associated lingering vorticity
maxes and produce noisy quantitative precipitation forecast fields through Monday evening as a
result. Have therefore gone with broad brushed slight chance probability of precipitation
for much of the County Warning Area on Monday. The remainder of the extended period
looks generally dry at this time.

There is general agreement on a developing upper ridge over the
plains early next week that will broaden as it shifts eastward over
the eastern Continental U.S.. this will lend itself to warmer than normal
temperatures given gefs 850mb temperature and 500mb height anomalies
are around 1 to 2 Standard deviations above normal for parts of the
area. Expect high temperatures to warm by a degree or two each day
Monday through Wednesday with highs generally in the middle to upper
80s. Would not be surprised by some 90s near and south of the Ohio


Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/...
high pressure over the area will slide east and winds will shift
to the east-southeast and remain on the light side <5kt. Low
pressure in the plains will track to the upper Midwest and cirrus
cloud deck is expected to stream into the region this morning and
last through the day...lowering to a deck around 15kft at the tail
end of the valid period. significant weather expected.


Iln watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...coniglio/jgl
short term...jgl
long term...kurz

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