Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
411 PM EST sun Nov 29 2015
high pressure centered north of the Great Lakes will bring
continued drying across the Ohio Valley tonight. A surface low
will track north through the Tennessee Valley and Kentucky on
Monday...increasing the threat for showery activity through the
day and particularly overnight. A strong cold front will wring out
moisture pulled in by this surface low as it crosses to the east
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
though the skies will remain cloudy...northeast winds will usher
in drier air in the lower levels tonight and see temperatures
bottom out in the low 30s north of I-70...low 40s south of the
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night/...
daytime will see winds gradually shift from NE to southeast and an
increase in moisture. The chances of rain are probably right on
with the forecast but it needs to be stressed that any precipitation on
Monday will be very light in nature...and could become a more
persistent sprinkle late in the day for areas along and S of the
Temperatures will be hard pressed to rise much with a moist and
cloudy atmosphere. Expect readings to rebound to within a few
degrees of 50...possibly 55 in northern Kentucky.
With The Crossing of the warm front in the evening...showers will
be on the increase overnight as moisture gets ushered in on
increasing southwest flow with strong cyclogenesis in
Iowa/Minnesota. Overnight lows will only be about 3-5 degrees off
of the high temperatures on Monday.
On Tuesday...the cold front will push east and rain will end from
west-east in the afternoon and early evening. Readings will fall through
the day and lows Tuesday night will be in the middle 30s with a clearing
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
colder air will work for Tuesday night dropping temperatures back
into the 30s. On Wednesday as 500 mb low pushes east across the Great
Lakes...cold air advection and wrap around precipitation will work into the forecast area. Once again
the GFS is a little stronger with the 500 mb low and more developed
with the wrap around. Actually prefer this solution for Wednesday.
Critical thicknesses will be low enough for some rain/snow mix
Wednesday morning. Highs will be more seasonal on
Wednesday...randing in the 40s.
Large surface high pressure then takes control for the rest of the
forecast period. A warming trend will occur for the later half of
the week...with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Thursday into Saturday.
Aviation /20z Sunday through Friday/...
low ceilings will continue to move southward and out of the taf sites
this afternoon however expect them to begin to return to the taf
sites on Monday as the frontal boundary begins to push back
northward towards the area.
Dry conditions can be expected for most of the taf sites through
most of the period. Have a vcsh mention in at kcvg and kluk
tomorrow morning with some weak isentropic lift. Also added in
additional vcsh at the longer kcvg taf as frontal boundary pushes
closer to the region.
Outlook...IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are likely Monday
night into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible
again Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.