Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
643 am EDT sun Aug 30 2015
upper level energy will combine with abundant low level moisture
to bring a chance of showers or thunderstorms for the next few
days. Temperatures will be near normal.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
showers and thunderstorms that has been affecting the region from
near Dayton to Columbus is finally beginning weaken. Scattered
convection will continue through sunrise however. Convection will
refire later in the day as 500 mb shortwave swinging through the Great
Lakes interacts with the low level moisture. Best chance of
showers and thunderstorms later today should be across the north
closer to the short wave.
Near seasonal temperature in the lower to middle 80s are expected
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/...
tonight will see 500 mb energy...lifting north from the deep South...Reach
the region. This will cause convection to linger into the evening.
Monday into Tuesday sees 500 mb ridge trying to build into Ohio
Valley. Some upper level energy manages to slip under the ridge
and into the region. This should provide enough energy to keep a
mention of a 20 pop Monday and Tuesday afternoon.
Highs on Monday will warm into the middle 80s. Temperatures will be a
little warmer on Tuesday...reaching the middle to upper 80s. Lows
continuing in the middle 60s.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
short wave to drop southeast into the Ohio Valley at middle week with ridge axis
re-establishing to our west. Given this scenario have included
chance probability of precipitation for showers/thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.
With the middle level ridge positioned to our west through the end of the
week...a northwest flow will prevail across the Ohio Valley. Enhanced forcing
will be lacking but can not rule out diurnally driven convection. Do
to the lack of significant forcing have limited probability of precipitation on Thursday and
Friday to slight chance during the afternoon. Warm temperatures to
continue with highs in the middle/upper 80s.
The middle/upper level ridge to build east next weekend. This will act to
keep temperatures warm and limit shower and thunderstorms activity.
Have opted to keep the forecast dry next weekend with highs generally in
the upper 80s.
Aviation /10z Sunday through Thursday/...
convection will fire again during the heat of the day as an upper
level trough west of the area combines with convergent flow over
the taf sites ahead of it. LIFR fog at kluk will lift this morning
and other taf sites may see some MVFR fog for an hour or so after
Models continue to be sparing on the distribution of storms later
today and focus them on one or more of a few a narrow lines
running SW-NE...most likely where the surface convergence is
strongest. Kept vicinity showers in the afternoon which will
likely be changed to a thunderstorm when and if the develop over
or upstream of a taf site. Models diminish activity significantly
after 0z and humidity profile also becomes quite scattered with
the potential for some clear skies towards daybreak which could
allow a drop in visibilities in fog to the MVFR category.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.