Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
842 am EDT Sat Sep 5 2015
an upper level disturbance over the Great Lakes will weaken and
move north through tonight. This system will be replaced by an
upper level ridge. Very warm and humid conditions will continue
through the Labor Day weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
an upper level closed low continues to rotate over the lower
peninsula of Michigan this morning. This low is sandwiched between
an upper high to our east and to our west. High resolution models
suggest that some convection may occur this morning near our northwest
zones due to its proximity to the low and a weak low level
boundary. Radar shows convection increasing in coverage so raised
probability of precipitation for this morning. For this afternoon...upper level low will
open up and shear as it begins to lift north. Despite the
weakening trend...there could still be a pop up shower/storm in
the heat of the day for all locations. It will continue to be very
warm for early September with highs in the upper 80s to the lower
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
upper level ridging will stretch from the Southern Plains
northeast through our region...then to New England through the
remainder of the Labor Day weekend.
Any shower/storm this evening should quickly dissipate by
sunset...allowing skies to become mostly clear overnight. Lows
will drop into the middle and upper 60s.
For Sunday into Monday...upper level ridging should keep a lid on
any pop up shower/storm...so will continue with a dry forecast. It
will be very warm again with highs in the upper 80s to the lower
For Monday night into Tuesday night...upper level ridging will
slowly become suppressed southward as a cold front slowly
approaches the region from the northwest. We should see another
dry day on Tuesday followed by increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday night into our northwest/western zones.
Temperatures will remain above seasonal normals.
Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...
precipitation chances will increase on Wednesday as the frontal
boundary moves across the forecast area. With an increase in cloud cover and
precipitation...temperatures will be limited to the lower 80s.
Models continue to diverge for precipitation chances for the
Thursday into Friday time frame. Without a lot of continuity
decided to limit precipitation chances to the slight chance to
chance categories. Temperatures will be cooler however with highs
in the 70s to lower 80s.
Aviation /13z Saturday through Wednesday/...
although generally VFR conditions are expected today...there will
again be a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Unlike on
Friday...overall storm coverage is not expected to be as
widespread today. Thus...the tafs will still be limited to a thunderstorms in the vicinity
for several hours during the peak afternoon and early evening
timing. There is also a slim chance that a few showers could drift
into the Columbus area this morning...but chances are greater that
these will stay north and west of the central Ohio airports.
Winds today will be light and variable...though a light
southeasterly flow will eventually develop during the evening and
into early Sunday morning. With a very slightly drier air mass on
Saturday night into Sunday morning...fog potential is
uncertain...and will only be included for kluk for this forecast
Outlook...showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday.