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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1247 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING. LOWERED
CLOUD COVER SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH IT SHOULD CU UP A LITTLE BIT MORE
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH. PREV AFD BELOW -

IT APPEARS THAT FETCH WILL STABILIZE WITH ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. SO MORE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS. OTHERWISE WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH CLEARING
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOME FLURRIES MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STARTING TO ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED TO
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE LOWS.

SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS A WARM FRONT
AT THE SURFACE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SOURCES OF LIFT
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT. THIS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TRENDS OF
THIS BEING PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED. BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN
CONCERNING HOW FAR NORTH OF THE LOW THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WHETHER THERE WILL BE A BREAK AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION...AND HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE WHICH MAY
AFFECT PRECIPITATION TYPE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE USED A BLEND
THAT SHOULD BE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS. SO ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALTHOUGH THAT COULD BE MINIMAL IF
PRECIPITATION MIXES WITH OR CHANGES TO RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BUT THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY DROP EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE READINGS RISE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER
GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY HIGHS GIVEN NEW SNOW COVER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WITH CHANCES LOOKING A BIT HIGHER IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE WITH
RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BUT
THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
DURING MID WEEK AND THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CU FIELD IS THICKENING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
REMAIN VFR EVEN IF A BKN DECK PRESENTS ITSELF. WINDS SHIFTING WEST
WILL PUSH RELATIVELY WARMER AIR INTO THE OHVLY AND ERODE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CU THIS AFTERNOON. BY THE LATE DAY...THE REST
OF THE REGION WILL SEE ANY CU DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL OHIO WHERE KCMH/KLCK MAY HANG ON TO A VFR
DECK THROUGH ABOUT 2Z. 

HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MAKES
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY TURN THEM SOUTHEAST BY
MORNING. 

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INHIBIT CU FORMATION ON SUNDAY BUT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. KCVG MAY SEE A
BEGINNING MVFR SNOW SHOWER FLY BEFORE THE 36 HOUR TAF ENDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS

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