Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
125 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014
a large area of high pressure will control the weather through
the weekend. Dry conditions are expected...with little in the way
of clouds...and gradually increasing temperatures.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
dry atmosphere will lead to continuation of clear skies. Forecast
highs look reasonable based on morning sounding.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/...
the iln County Warning Area will remain stuck rather firmly between two north-northeast-moving
streams of moisture through the middle of the week. Surface low
pressure moving up the East Coast may get close enough to spread a
few high clouds over eastern Ohio on Wednesday and Thursday.
Cirrus from whatever is left of a weakening shortwave over the
plains could move over Indiana during the same time frame. If
neither of these sources of clouds end up moving over the iln
County Warning Area...it may well remain completely clear through the end of the
week. At some point...things may moisten up just enough to allow
for a few cumulus to development...but relative humidity profiles do not suggest
this is likely until Thursday or Friday at the very earliest.
As opposed to the chilly temperatures early Tuesday morning...with
a warmer starting point Tuesday afternoon...temperatures should
stay a bit warmer on Tuesday night / Wednesday morning. This will
lead to another increase of a few degrees in high temperatures for
Wednesday. Through the rest of the week...model 850mb/925mb temperatures
are relatively stagnant. Also...the surface flow pattern is light
and easterly...neutral to very slightly cool in terms of
advection. Thus...the maximum temperatures through the rest of the week are
forecast to remain pretty steady in the middle to upper 70s...near to
slightly above climatological normals.
Long term /Friday night through Monday/...
middle/upper level ridging will remain in control through the long term
period. The models are hinting at some moisture possibly trying to
work up from the south early next week with a short wave digging underneath
the established upper ridge. Have kept a dry forecast with a slight
increase into low chance probability of precipitation on Monday.
As the airmass slowly modifies...expect a gradual warming trend
through the end of the week with high temperatures running a few
degrees above normal. Erred on the warm side of daytime highs and
the cool side of nighttime lows given the dry airmass. This still
puts temperatures about 7-8 degree above normal on highs and 4-6 degree above on
lows. Guidance really only had a 2-4 degree range on both highs and
lows through the entire extended period...indicating fairly high
confidence in the overall pattern and the forecast temperatures.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Saturday/...
dry air will remain in place. Could eventually be a few cumulus on
Wednesday in the Cincinnati area. Expect localized fog to affect
kluk overnight otherwise VFR continues with light easterly winds.
Outlook...no significant weather is expected.