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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTENING ACTIVITY WILL CROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A MORE ACTIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING IN OVERNIGHT. ZONAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERMIT H5 S/W AND VORT
MAXIMA TO PERTUBATE AND ENHANCE OR INSTIGATE SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. 

WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT...HAVE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A PROLONGED
MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES VERSUS THE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM INDIVIDUAL
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS. 

THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SOME SURFACE AIR
MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND NOT ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. EXPECT LOWS TO BE UNIFORMLY AROUND 70
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE
LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE
LOW. 

A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO
PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED 
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK 
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY 
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO 
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE 
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND 
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF 
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN 
FOR NOW. 

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS 
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN 
FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. 
MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. 

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE CLOSE TO KDAY AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD. HANDLED THESE SHOWERS WITH A VCSH MENTION. SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND THEREFORE HAVE A VCTS MENTION IN AT THE TAFS DURING THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BELIEVE THAT THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. DUE TO THIS HAVE
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TAF
SITES TONIGHT HOWEVER. 

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS AT KDAY AND KILN. IFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TONIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES. 

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER KEPT A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK

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