Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY CLEARING MAY BE BRIEF
AS MID CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHING INTO WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOWS ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURRING IN EARNEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
ONWARDS. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING EAST SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
MID CLOUDS WITH IT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES FALLING
OUT OF THIS DECK ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALL DEVELOPING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION. CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS LOW ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD INCREASE A FAIR AMOUNT HEADING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECIDEDLY NON-DIURNAL. EXPECT A SMALL DROP
OFF IN READINGS FRIDAY EVENING...MORE SO IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER. THEN STEADY OR PERHAPS SLOWLY
RISING READINGS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE
MORNING AND STRONG ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
JUMP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT READINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM.  MOISTURE WILL 
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 
50S TO LOW 60S ON SUNDAY.  

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE 
DURING THIS TIME.  COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON 
MONDAY AND THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES 
THROUGH THE DAY AND RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  THERE ARE SOME 
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE 
AREA.  DUE TO SOME RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND 
AT THIS POINT IN TIME.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN 
END MONDAY EVENING HOWEVER SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER 
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH 
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE TO DISAGREE FOR THIS 
TIME PERIOD.  CONTINUED FORECAST THINKING FROM YESTERDAY AND WENT 
CLOSE TO THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  THIS 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.  
GOING WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR 
WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR 
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
CYCLONIC/CAA LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR
ACROSS INDIANA ARE PUSHING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA ATTM. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER OFF THE 12Z NAM
SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR A VCSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND A TEMPO PERIOD FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS TO THE
WEST HAVE OCCASIONALLY DROPPED TO IFR BUT THINK THIS WOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT THIS POINT. WILL HANG
ON TO MVFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND WE START TO GET INTO SOME WAA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations