Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1257 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2015
periods of rain can be expected today into tonight as a cold
front sags slowly southeast through the Ohio Valley. Drier air
will push down into the region for Sunday. The front will lift
back north across the area as a warm front Sunday night and
Monday...bringing another chance for showers to start the work
Near term /through tonight/...
cold front is situated south of Cincinnati this morning. Winds in
general will be lighter near and south of the front. There is a
wide range in temperatures across the front with northwest portions of
the forecast area in the middle to upper 30s and southern portions of the forecast area in
portions of Kentucky and southeast Ohio are in the middle 50s. Do not
expect temperatures north of the front to rise much today.
Temperatures north of the front will generally remain steady
although slight increases or decreases in temperatures will be
possible. Colder air will move into the remainder of the area
tonight with lows in the lower 30s north to the lower to middle 40s
across portions of northern Kentucky and southeast Ohio.
Isentropic lift will keep decent rain chances across the region
today. Tonight the better chance of rain will generally be southeast of
Interstate 71. On the northern fringe of the rain expect more in
the way of drizzle. Precipitation values will be lighter tonight
especially on the northern fringe of the precipitation where the
drizzle is expected. Some patchy fog will also be possible with
the low level moisture. One limiting factor to fog would be that
in many cases the winds will stay up some overnight. Clouds will
stick around for most of the night except for some breaks possible
north of Interstate 70.
Short term /Sunday through Monday/...
the models have trended a little farther south with the front on
Sunday. Outside of some lower chance probability of precipitation across our far
south....think most of the area will be dry during the day on
Sunday with highs generally in the middle to upper 40s.
The boundary will begin to lift back to the north as a warm front
Sunday night into Monday...bringing an increasing chance for showers
south to north across the region. This will also allow for
slightly warmer temperatures on Monday with highs ranging from
the upper 40s north to the lower and middle 50s south.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as the warm sector becomes established...scattered showers will
continue to be possible going into Monday night...and continued
warm advection will lead to non-diurnal temperatures (with rising
temperatures early Tuesday morning).
On Tuesday morning...a cold front will approach the region from the
west. This front will be attached to a relatively unimpressive
surface low over Wisconsin...a little too far away to allow the
frontal forcing or cold advection to be particularly strong. Drier
conditions behind the front will allow for an end to precipitation
chances...before the upper low moves across the southern Great Lakes
on Wednesday morning...spreading some scattered precipitation into
the northern half of the forecast area. Based on the impressions of
the cold front from the 12z model cycle...temperatures from Tuesday
through Wednesday were all raised slightly. This may also cut into
the chances of snow on Wednesday morning...though a rain/snow mix
will be maintained in the forecast.
Phase differences between models in this lumbering upper pattern
start to become problematic as the upper low moves through the
area...casting some doubt on exact predictions through the rest of
the week. Temperatures should remain within a few degrees of
normal...with very low chances of precipitation after Wednesday.
Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
rain and drizzle will be present across the taf sites today into
tonight before drier air works into the region allowing precipitation
to taper off. Ceilings will generally be IFR for much of today into
tonight before gradually becoming MVFR. Some MVFR fog will also be
possible at times. VFR conditions are expected to return during
the daytime hours on Sunday.
Outlook...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Monday into Tuesday.