Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1258 am EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015
rain will continue mainly across southern locations tonight as a
cold front becomes nearly stationary along the Ohio River. As
colder air filters in from the north...a wave of low pressure will
allow for heavy snow Wednesday into Thursday. A very cold airmass
will arrive Wednesday night through Friday behind the front.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
band of moderate to heavy rain continues to run from cvg to
Highland County to Hocking County. This band has caused some minor
flooding due to the rain and snow melt. The band that is moving
through Dayton with the higher dbz looks like it maybe bright
banding...so not issuing flood products in it right now.
As cold front pushes south the heavier rain should be shunted south
with it. We should continue to see drying from the northwest tonight.
Temperatures should begin their slow fall...but warmed up the
temperatures several degrees based on the current observation. The
combination of the warmer temperatures and the sharper back edge to
the precipitation should lower the snow chances for tonight.
Short term /6 am this morning through Thursday night/...
slow moving cold front will be sagging south across the area on
Wednesday. Copious moisture will continue to be advected along the
boundary in an environment of strong slantwise vertical motion. As
temperatures fall due to cold advection behind the front...rain
will transition to snow. Deep layer of saturated air combined with
favorable temperature profiles for ice Crystal formation in strong
upward motion will lead to heavy snow. The change from northwest
to southeast will start Wednesday morning in northwest
counties...spreading to Cincinnati by around noon...with all
locations seeing snow by late Wednesday evening. A wave of low
pressure traveling up the front late Wednesday will slow the
progress of the front while enhancing snowfall back toward I-71.
The steady snow will continue Wednesday night before tapering off
Forecast snowfall amounts require a Winter Storm Warning along and
south of I-71. High quantitative precipitation forecast totals yield up to a foot of snow south
of the Ohio River...with perhaps 6 to 8 inches from Cincinnati to
Wilmington to Lancaster. Went with a Winter Storm Watch for a
tier of counties to the north of the warning including Columbus
where there is greater uncertainty at the edge of the band of
heavy snow. At this point it appears Dayton will be northwest of
the heaviest snow...so left them out of headlines for now. West
central Ohio may be spared the worst with lighter snow
accumulations expected. A shift in anticipated location of the
heaviest snow may warrant northward adjustments to the winter
storm headlines. The snow will end on Thursday as the front slides
southeast. High pressure and a very cold airmass will follow for
Very cold temperatures are in store Thursday and Thursday night.
Record low highs in the upper teens are forecast for
Thursday...while record lows in the negative single digits are
forecast for Thursday night. Also mention in severe weather potential statement wind chills as
low as minus 15 Thursday night.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
for Friday morning...Arctic high centered along the Ohio River with
area having to rebound from near record low temperatures. Flow
becomes more from the SW and begins some weak warm air advection through the day on
Friday...but still well below normal. Generally went on the low side
of a blend with the high temperatures and mostly sunny skies.
Shallow cold air will remain and boundary layer temperatures will
For Friday night...there is a secondary cold front and associated
weak shortwave dropping through the Great Lakes on the northern edge of
the ridge. With fairly dry lower levels and the ridge slow to
progress east of the region...lows Friday night will generally be in
For Saturday into Saturday night...have continued to go with a blend
and the latest runs of the GFS/European model (ecmwf) are in pretty good alignment
with the front making its push further into the area
Saturday/Saturday night. Only with slight chances as moisture will
Rebounding temperatures into early next week but still below normal.
Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
rain will continue through the early part of the taf period
although there will be some breaks in the IFR ceilings.
Precipitation will sag south during the morning...so there will be
a break from kday to kcmh/klck with ceilings improving slightly to
MVFR. Elsewhere IFR ceilings will persist. Precipitation will go
through a brief transition period around 18z and then be snow for
the remainder of the taf period. Snow will be heavier at kcvg/kluk
resulting in lower conditions there. Still expect some light snow
to spread back further north into Dayton and Columbus but it may
remain MVFR there.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings likely late Wednesday night into Thursday.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday.
Ohio...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 1 PM EST Thursday for
Flood Watch through this afternoon for ohz063>065-071>074-
Winter Storm Watch from noon EST today through Thursday
afternoon for ohz054>056-062-070.
Kentucky...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 1 PM EST Thursday for
Flood Watch through this afternoon for kyz089>100.
In...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 1 PM EST Thursday for
Flood Watch through this afternoon for inz075-080.
Winter Storm Watch from noon EST today through Thursday
afternoon for inz066.