Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
424 am EDT Wednesday Sep 3 2014
high pressure will build into the region...with drier conditions
expected through Wednesday night. A rise in moisture will begin
again on Thursday and Friday...with chances for storms increasing
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
areas of fog have persisted so as to prompt dense fog advisory
through 9am...though certainly some sensors in the advisory area
have higher visibilities. Enough Airport and dot sensors and web cams are
socked in enough though. Improvement after 8am. Weak high pressure
to control weather today...with only high clouds in the southern forecast
area. Daytime highs more seasonable with a break from the
southerly flow and ll moisture.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
middle/high clouds will continue to work their way into the periphery
of the weak high pressure...with gradually increasing moisture and
surface temperatures beginning tonight as the high begins to depart
and a return to southerly flow on the back side. While NAM still
bringing spotty showers to the northern forecast area on the periphery of
the surface ridge...ll moisture and forcing is lacking so have opted
to keep area dry until slight chances begin with the return of ll
southerly flow/moisture on Thursday night in the northwest forecast area.
Also with the departing high will come increasing temperatures and ll
moisture...with middle/upper 80s on Thursday and upper 80s to near 90 on
Friday. Some model timing differences with approaching cold front
and associated showers/thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. Have opted for a
blend of European model (ecmwf)/GFS and keeping the likely showers/thunderstorms but
delayed timing a bit from previous forecast.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
an upper level disturbance will move through on Saturday allowing
for additional showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation is
expected to taper off Saturday night. Cooler conditions will be in
place on Saturday with precipitation across the area.
Cooler and dry conditions will be in place for Sunday and Monday
with high temperatures in the 70s. Southerly flow will allow for
slightly warmer conditions on Tuesday with high temperatures in the
Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/...
fairly widespread IFR or lower fog has developed across the area this
morning. Given the abundant surface moisture and light flow regime...would
expect visibilities to continue to drop off through the early morning hours.
That being said...visibilities have been bouncing around a bit so far...perhaps
due to some of the high level clouds that continue to stream up from
the southwest. Either way...will hang on to fairly low visibility restrictions
through daybreak...with conditions then improving as the fog lifts through
middle morning. We could see a few cumulus develop from late morning into early
afternoon...but VFR conditions are expected through the later part of
the taf period.
Outlook...thunderstorms possible Friday into Saturday.
Ohio...dense fog advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for ohz045-046-
Kentucky...dense fog advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for kyz089>100.
In...dense fog advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for inz050-058-