Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
820 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS ALLOWED FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO PULL EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR
WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...MOIST...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO BRING THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB. CLOUD COVER ALSO LOOKS TO HANG AROUND
MONDAY MORNING SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME
DISLODGED MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EAST AND THE
CHANCE OF RAIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH A
LINE OF PVA SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THIS THIN LINE OF PVA WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THIS LINE OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOWER END INSTABILITY
WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS ALL SUPPORTS
CHANCE POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE WINDY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
SOME OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLY SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE
20 KTS.

BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE OF PVA THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE RAIN. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY HELP TO CLEAN UP THE FLOW AND MOVE THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PUSH TO THE EAST
PUTTING THE AREA INTO A RRQ. SPC HAS THE SW PART OF THE CWA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR TUESDAY HAVE CAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG. INSTABILITY IN
THE SOUNDING STILL IS TAKING ON A SKINNY CAPE. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FOR WIND BUT THIS THREAT STILL REMAINS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE 
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE PCPN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE 
TIMING OF ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...WILL TRY TO SHOW SOME DIURNAL 
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN CHANCES FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 

THE  FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIALLY THIS 
WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY 
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES. A 
BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE 
WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL 
EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO 
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER ON THE TIMING 
OF THIS FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO AM HESITANT TO GO ANY 
HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE POPS AT THIS POINT. 

HIGHS WILL  REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH 
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 
60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SOME MORE SEASONABLE 
READINGS MAY RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LOW OVER ROCKIES
AND A RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE SE US. THIS RIDGE AXIS
TO SHIFT A LTL EAST WITH FLOW BACKING SWRLY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL 
CLOUDS LATE. INITIAL S/W AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL ALLOW A 
VORT LOBE TO PIVOT NE THRU OHIO MONDAY AFTN. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTBY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE LIMITED
MENTION IN TAFS TO VCSH BETWEEN 17Z AND 24Z. 

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE MONDAY DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations