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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1028 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES. 

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT 
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR 
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A 
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX 
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS 
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING 
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN 
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE 
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.  

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND 
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER 
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK 
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG 
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD
INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...

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