Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
940 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY 
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN
AREAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH SOME RAIN MAKING IT INTO NEWARK. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT MAKE IT A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
TODAY BUT WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES. LATEST KILN SOUNDING SHOWS PWATS RIGHT AROUND 1.33"
THIS MORNING WITH 850 TEMPERATURES AT 15 DEGREES C. WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID
80S THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY CHANGES WHERE TO BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN A
BIT AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS. 

PREV DISCUSSION->
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO
EASTERN KY WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT
A MORE CLOUDS IN THE EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH UPR LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS EVENING...
ILN/S FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. SO WILL END ANY
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY AND ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING 
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT 8H JET. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TYPICAL BIAS 
WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG DUE TO WIDESPREAD SFC TD/S OF 75 OR MORE.
GFS INSTBY LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES AROUND 1500 
J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 

PW/S INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING. 
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND WARM MID LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD 
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING 
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE 
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT. 

WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS NW BY LATE TUESDAY 
AFTN INTO TUE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. 

WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF WESTERLIES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT 
STALLING OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. WILL 
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.   

TEMP WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER/MID 
80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI- 
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT 
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. 

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER 
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE 
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY 
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO 
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH 
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME 
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER 
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. CLOUDS
HAVE SHOWN A DECREASING TREND AS THE SHIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS. BR THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BURN OFF BY
13Z. BR IS FORECAST TO FORM AGAIN AT LUK LATE IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY. CVG WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations