Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
243 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014
an upper air disturbance and a surface boundary will push across
the area today. High pressure and drier air will build in for
Wednesday. A vigorous cold front will move toward the area on
Thursday...and then push through on Friday...bringing widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with digging 500 mb short wave
and cold front are skimming the northern counties this morning. Latest
mesoscale scale models are suggesting that the precipitation should be east of the
region by 18z...so have sped up the ending of it.
Behind the fnt...an expansive area of stratus is working in. This
will keep temperatures down this afternoon. Lowered highs about 5
degrees across the northern half and a couple in the south,
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday/...
isolated showers may affect southeast counties this evening as the
disturbance and surface boundary move southeast. Otherwise expect
high pressure to build in behind the departing system. Dry weather
is expected Wednesday as the ridge of high pressure builds in at
the surface and aloft.
For Thursday...vigorous cold front will be pushed toward the area
from the west by an extensive upper trough. Though clouds will be
increasing...have backed off on timing of arrival of showers to
come in line with the latest models. Went with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms for western counties by Thursday evening.
High temperatures in the 70s are forecast for Wednesday as warm
advection starts Wednesday afternoon. Look for highs mainly in the 80s
Thursday when warm advection will strengthen in the increasing
southerly flow ahead of the front.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
short wave ahead of a deepening upper trough will help push a cold
front across the area on Friday. Expect showers and embedded
thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday.
Upper trough will become established across the region for the
weekend and as disturbances rotate through there could be a few
showers. Temperatures will be below normal. There is some
uncertainty how fast the trough will lift out. For now have trended
temperatures towards seasonal average with dry conditions on Monday.
Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/...
precipitation associated with the quick moving 500 mb short wave has pulled east of
kcmh/klck. Meanwhile Post frontal IFR stratus has slowed its
southward progress and is now looking like it wont reach the southern
tafs. That leaves the big question of what will happen to the
stratus this afternoon and into tonight. Models are showing their
typical spread of either clearing things out or lingering the
stratus into tomorrow.
Based on the cold air pool behind the fnt...have decided to linger
the stratus across the northern tafs through the night...while allowing
kcvg/kluk to scattered out overnight. Kiln will be the tricky
location. Does the stratus expand down into Kiln overnight as the
southern edge is just to the north. Decided to keep the stratus north
of the Kiln...but brought MVFR/IFR fog in after 06z. In the northern tafs
lowered visibilities down to IFR towards Sunrise. Valley fog should bring
kluk down to IFR conditions overnight...with possible MVFR fog
Expect improving conditions late Wednesday morning.
Outlook...thunderstorms possible Thursday night and Friday. MVFR
ceilings possible Friday night and Sunday.