Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
631 am EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015
a cold front will push to the east today. High pressure will build
in with dry conditions and cooler air through Thursday. Another
front will move through Thursday night with showers. The coldest
air of the season so far will settle in behind this front for the
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
cold air advection filtering in behind cold front which has pushed to the east.
Low clouds that developed just behind front will push to the east.
Short wave rotating around trough will pivot across area today with cold air advection and
moisture enough to bring clouds back in during the day. Models
indicating these clouds will cover much of the forecast area by
afternoon with some breaks in the far south and southwest. Temperatures
will struggle to recover much today and went near guidance for
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
clouds will linger especially in the north and east through much
of the night. Some breaks should occur in the southwest. Lows
tonight near guidance. High pressure ridge builds as trough pushes
east for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures near guidance with colder
readings Wednesday night under clear skies and light winds. Should
rebound some for Thursday as high moves off to the east and colder
air retreats to the north and east.
Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will push off to
the east through the day on Thursday. As it does some warm air advection will
develop through the afternoon hours...allowing for temperatures to
push up into the middle to upper 60s. Meanwhile...short wave energy
dropping down across the southern Great Lakes will help push a
cold front through the Ohio Valley region later Thursday night
into Friday morning. Models have increased moisture some and thus
have decided to increase probability of precipitation for Thursday night...especially
closer to the better forcing across northern portions of our forecast area.
High pressure will build into the area behind the front through
the weekend. This will provide for dry but seasonably cool
conditions. In developing low level cold air advection...highs on Friday will be
in the upper 50s to lower 60s...with highs Saturday and Sunday
only in the 50s. Frost/freeze conditions will be possible Friday
night/Saturday night and possibly Sunday night. Saturday
night/Sunday morning looks to be the coldest as the surface high
should be pretty close to overhead by early Sunday morning.
Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
a large scale middle level trough will push east across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. An embedded disturbance rotating southward
around the main trough will team up with 850 mb moisture/cold pool
aloft to bring considerable stratocumulus/cumulus development
during the morning hours...with mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions
expected by afternoon. Ceilings should range between 3500 and 4500
feet. Locally breezy conditions with west/northwest winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts up 25 knots are expected.
For tonight...area will remain under a northwest flow pattern
aloft. Another disturbance will dig southeast into the region. Not
much in the way of moisture with this feature and it is weakly
reflected at the surface by a trough axis. Models suggest that
850 mb moisture will likely linger into the overnight hours...especially
near the kcmh/klck terminals...so have held on to broken ceilings
between 3500 and 4500 feet for now.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.