Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
152 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015
a weak frontal boundary will linger over Kentucky today and
tonight. A cold front will provide the focus for thunderstorm
development later on Wednesday. High pressure and a drier airmass
are expected for Thursday and last into the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
frontal boundary in the vicinity will be the focus for shower and
thunderstorm development today. Expect most of the thunderstorm
activity to be during the afternoon to early evening hours.
Thunderstorm activity will diminish this evening.
Temperatures are already in the upper 70s to low 80s across the
area. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s today.
Dewpoints are in the 60s and 70s. Heat index values in the 90s
will be prevalent today. Some heat index values will approach 100
across SW portions of the forecast area.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/...
showers will diminish significantly in the evening and die out
entirely before daybreak. With the approach of a cold front on
Wednesday...the airmass will be ripe for another round of
thunderstorms spreading in from the west Wednesday evening. Storms
overnight will spread southeast and drier air behind the front
will mark an end to the humid airmass for Thursday into Friday.
Overnight lows through the period will be around 70 with the
higher dewpoints...then drop to the middle 60s Wednesday night in
the Post frontal atmosphere...lower to middle 60s Thursday night
with generally clear skies.
Highs will top out in the upper 80s to around 90...middle 80s
Long term /Friday night through Monday/...
progressive middle level trough/upper low to move from the northern plains/southern
Canada across the Great Lakes at middle week flattening out the northern
portion of the ridge. This will allow an associated surface cold front
to push through the region late Wednesday night/early Thursday.
Will continue mention of low chance probability of precipitation for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
as moisture and moderate instability returns. On the warm side of the
system...warm temperatures to continue Wednesday ahead of the front
with highs from the upper 80s northwest to the lower 90s southeast.
Will bump up probability of precipitation to high chance Wednesday night with the approach and
passage of the front. Model solutions a little faster with the cold frontal
passage. Therefore...will end all precipitation very early in the southeast.
As surface high pressure begins to nose in Thursday...dry conditions
will return. Temperatures will be a little cooler with highs from the
lower 80s northwest to the upper 80s southeast.
Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building across the region
late in the week into next weekend. High temperatures on both Friday
and Saturday will be close to normal with highs in the lower 80s
to upper 80s.
Model solution differences exist regarding precipitation late next weekend
associated with surface front dropping into the Great Lakes. Will limit
probability of precipitation to slight chance across the north Sunday afternoon and then bring
chance probability of precipitation County Warning Area wide Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday will be close
to normal ranging from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
an extensive cumulus field will be in place across the taf sites
through the early evening hours. Although most of the ceilings are
expected to be VFR a brief period of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled
out. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
area this afternoon and dissipate by the evening hours. Have a
vcsh or thunderstorms in the vicinity mention in the tafs to account for these.
There will be a decrease in cloud cover tonight and with light
winds there will be a favorable setup for fog across the area.
Another system will bring the chance for additional thunderstorm
activity late in the longer kcvg taf. Have a rain showers thunderstorms in the vicinity mention in
to account for this.
Outlook...thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday into Wednesday