Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
123 PM EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014
high pressure will remain in control of the weather in the Ohio
Valley today. An upper level trough will cross the region tonight
but should be only noted by the increased cloud cover. A weak cold
front will cross the region Saturday and could spark some showers
during the day before passing eastward.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
areas of dense fog are persisting across northwest portions of our
forecast area this morning. This should lift through the remainder of the
morning with skies becoming mostly sunny. With full sun...12z iln
sounding is supporting a high of 59 degrees today. Will range highs
from middle to upper 50s north to upper 50s/lower 60s in the south.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
high pressure will remain in control of the region with just a few
exceptions. The upper trough crossing tonight will only affect the
cloud cover and bring in slightly warmer low temperatures to
northwest County Warning Area. Eastern County Warning Area will maintain a relatively clear sky
cover and the Hocking hills east of Columbus may drop down to
support frost overnight and early Friday morning. The lower Scioto
valley will likely not drop as much and do not expect frost here.
The rest of Friday will be pleasant with highs in the lower to
middle 60s. A cold front will cross the region Saturday...and some
light showers may be forced out of the atmosphere as it passes.
Upper level flow is zonal northwest and does not provide any real
upward motion from the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere.
What showers that do occur Saturday should be short lived and
widely scattered in nature.
Even with expected increase in cloud cover Saturday...highs should
be 4-5 degree warmer than previous day and reach the upper 60s in
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
high pressure will remain near the area through Monday night.
This will keep dry conditions across the forecast area. Southerly flow
develops on Monday which will allow temperatures to warm into the
70s across most locations. This southerly flow continues into
Monday night and therefore low temperatures will only drop down
into the 50s.
Southerly flow increases more on Tuesday in advance of the next
system with wind gusts in excess of 30 miles per hour possible at times. There
are some differences in model timing and strength with the system
moving through Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Have precipitation
chances increasing through the day with the greatest chance of
thunderstorms Tuesday evening and then gradually tapering off across
the forecast area. Cooler air will usher into the area with the passage of the
cold front and high temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 50s and
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
a few cumulus have developed across primarily eastern portions of our
area this afternoon. These cumulus should dissipate fairly quickly
through late afternoon as ridging works in from the west. As the
middle level ridge axis pushes east across the area this
evening...high level moisture will begin to spill in from the west
and continue to thicken up through the overnight hours. This
should help limit fog development later tonight. Increasing isentropic
lift ahead of a weak approaching middle level short wave will result
in some lower VFR cloud development and perhaps a few sprinkles in
the later part of the taf period.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.