Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
432 am EST Sat Feb 13 2016
Arctic high pressure will slowly build in today and cross the area
tonight. A warm front will lift into the region Sunday afternoon
and night. Low pressure will pass southeast of the area on Monday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
streamer off of Lake Michigan is still sagging south with some
snow showers/flurries. This will weaken as flow backs. However it
appears that fetch will stabilize with another band of moisture
becoming established across far northern counties this afternoon.
So more snow showers/flurries will be possible in those areas.
Otherwise will see variable cloudiness with clearing pushing in
from the west in the afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to rise
much today with highs only in the teens. Wind chill this morning
will be marginal but will let advisory continue.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
some flurries may still be lingering in parts of central Ohio at
the beginning of the period. But they will come to an end as the
center of the high moves across the area. This will also provide
good radiational cooling conditions with only some high clouds
starting to advance ahead of the next system. Have continued to
undercut guidance lows.
Short wave will track from the upper Mississippi Valley into the
Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night. As this occurs a warm front
at the surface will approach Sunday afternoon and lift through the
area Sunday night. As a result of these two sources of lift
widespread light precipitation will break out. This will be in the
form of snow with accumulations from 1 to 3 inches.
Forecast becomes more complicated beyond this time frame. Next
short wave will track from the middle south into the Appalachians
Monday into Monday night. Associated surface low will pass well
south and east of the region. 00z guidance continues trends of
this being progressive and less amplified. But differences remain
concerning how far north of the low the shield of precipitation
develops...whether there will be a break after the warm frontal
precipitation...and how much warming there will be which may
affect precipitation type. Given uncertainty have used a blend
that should be middle of the Road within the envelope of model
solutions. So additional light accumulations will be possible
during this time period although that could be minimal if
precipitation mixes with or changes to rain.
Temperatures will remain below normal Sunday but there will be
little if any drop early Sunday evening before readings rise
through the remainder of the night. Stayed closer to cooler
guidance for Monday highs given new snow cover from Sunday night
and expected clouds and precipitation during the day.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
next short wave moving through a long wave trough will pass
through the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will bring
another chance of snow/rain with chances looking a bit higher in
southern counties. Upper flow then becomes progressive with
ridging moving across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. But
then another short wave will move into the area Friday bringing
rain showers ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will remain cool
during middle week and then rise above normal by the end of the
Aviation /09z Saturday through Wednesday/...
the heaviest snow shower activity has moved out of the taf sites.
Expect some residual lighter snow shower activity overnight. Some
MVFR ceilings will work into the region for a time overnight and
impact most of the area taf sites except for kcvg and kluk. Cloud
cover will decrease by morning however expect this to be short
lived as additional cloud cover and a few light snow showers will
develop for the afternoon hours. These clouds are expected to be
in the MVFR category and will dissipate during the evening hours.
Wind gusts have already started to dissipate across the region
however expect winds to stay up some overnight and through the
daytime hours on Saturday. Winds will continue to decrease
Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with precipitation
from Sunday through Tuesday.
Ohio...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for ohz026-
In...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for inz050-