Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1009 PM EDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

Synopsis...
high pressure will allow for dry conditions across the area
tonight. An area of low pressure will approach the region
Wednesday into Wednesday night before moving just south of the
area on Thursday.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
thunderstorm complex moving east through Kentucky will stay south
of the forecast area tonight. Cirrus blow off should gradually thin as the storms
weaken overnight.

With the better cloud cover across southern portions of the forecast area...went
warmer temperatures there. Temperatures will range from the upper 50s to
the middle 60s northern Kentucky.

&&

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/...
an area of low pressure will begin to approach the region
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Dry conditions will start the
short term however expect precipitation chances to increase
through the day and into the night Wednesday night...especially
across SW portions of the forecast area.

Ffg values are around an inch in three hours across some
locations near and south of the Ohio River. Decided to hold off on
a Flash Flood Watch however with most of the precipitation not
expected until late Wednesday night into Thursday and due to some
uncertainty with the exact placement of the heaviest rainfall.
This will continued to be monitored to see if a Flash Flood Watch
will be needed at some point for the Wednesday night into Thursday
time period.

&&

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
potent low pressure containing copious moisture will be traveling
through Kentucky on Thursday. This will bring widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms to the southern part of the forecast area...with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the northern half farther
from the low. Models are not in great agreement with respect to this
system. Went closer to the moister solution of the NAM and European model (ecmwf) and
away from the drier GFS which has the low tracking farther to the
south. With the low center tracking to the south of the Ohio
River...severe weather will be limited by marginal instability in a
rather cool regime of clouds and precipitation. However...flooding will be
possible in a prolonged period of showers.

Weather will settle down by Friday when the low is forecast to scoot
east...leaving weak high pressure and dry conditions which may
persist through Saturday. A frontal zone is prognosticated to set up late
Sunday through Monday...providing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in a humid airmass. Drier conditions may return
Tuesday with high pressure.

Cooler than normal temperatures will accompany the low on
Thursday...when highs are forecast to be in the low to middle 70s.
Highs will start to rebound Friday...rising into the upper 70s. The
rest of the period should see near to slightly below normal highs in
the low to middle 80s.

&&

Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/...
high pressure will be building in tonight at the surface.
Meanwhile northwest to westerly flow aloft will keep a broken cirrus deck across
the tafs for the first part of the night. Cirrus deck will drop to the
S by sunrise...but an ac deck is expected to work into cvg/luk
after 12z. This deck should linger across the southern tafs for the
afternoon.

Could see some visibility restrictions late tonight... especially
at kluk where shallow fog will likely lead to LIFR. Conditions
will quickly return to VFR area wide shortly after 12z. Winds will
be 10 knots or less throughout with the direction gradually veering
with time.

Outlook...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible late
Wednesday night into Thursday evening.

&&

Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Novak
near term...sites
short term...Novak
long term...coniglio
aviation...sites

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations