Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
132 am EDT Monday may 4 2015
southerly flow will result in a gradual warming trend through the
first part of the week. A chance of thunderstorms will develop
Monday into Tuesday as a frontal boundary sags slowly south into the
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
scattered to broken middle and high clouds west of the region will
track across the area overnight. Light southerly flow will occur.
Forecast lows look reasonable.
Short term /6 am this morning through Tuesday night/...
a weakening cold front will wash out over the southern Great
Lakes/Northern Ohio valley during the day Monday. The main forcing
with this frontal system will be well out of the region in
northeast Canada and moving away. The influx of slightly more
moist air on southerly winds and sunshine combined with the front
indicates that showers and a few thunderstorms should pop along
and near this boundary.
The better chances for rain will exist north of the I-70 corridor
with little if any chance of a passing shower in the immediate
Ohio River valley and southward into Kentucky. This area of
enhanced shower potential will remain here through Monday night
and Tuesday...diminishing significantly Tuesday night.
Outside of the cloud cover that should be more dense and in
greater extent in northern County Warning Area...temperatures should continue to
build a bit each day as they rise to within a few degrees of 80 for
most locations by Monday afternoon and Tuesday...highest along
Ohio River and slightly lower to the north.
Did not make any sweeping changes to temperatures in the forecast as
bias corrected guidance of the mav and the met blended with the
current forecast yielded minor adjustments.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
period begins with the boundary remaining near the northern edge of
the forecast area. On Wednesday the 500 mb ridge continues to build northward.
There is enough lingering instability across the north on Wednesday to
keep a mention of a 20 pop.
By Thursday...the upper ridge is centered across the forecast area on Thursday.
With the ridge there should be some subsidence to retard convection
from developing. The GFS however probability of precipitation diurnal convection each day.
The other operational models keep things dry Thursday and
Friday...so will lean towards the consensus.
Over the weekend the western edge of the ridge weakens. A few storms
could work into western sections of the forecast area on Saturday. By Sunday there
should be a chance for all locations.
The building ridge will bring warming temperatures. Temperatures
will warm to the lower to middle 80s Thursday...Friday and
Saturday. The chance of precipitation on Sunday in the west means
slightly cooler high temperatures...in the upper 70s. Eastern locations
should stay in the lower 80s.
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
all sites currently VFR this morning with a chance of some fog
again at kluk. Winds are not as favorable tonight and the dewpoint
depression is also higher currently than last night at this time.
Still cant rule out reduced visibilities though. The main story
will be the chance of rain Monday. Over the last couple of days
models were showing raining remaining north of the terminals. On
the latest set of model runs showers and thunderstorms are making
it further south. This appears due to an upper level disturbance.
For now have introduced vcsh only to the northern taf sites.
Forecast soundings from the NAM do support thunder though. Will
wait for next set of model runs as confidence remains low at this
point before introducing thunder and/ or rain to the taf sites.
Outlook...thunderstorms are possible Monday night and Tuesday.