Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1043 am EDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Synopsis...
a weak cold front will move through the region today. High
pressure will build in for the weekend.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a weak cold front will slide across the forecast area today.
Moisture and lift continue to be quite limited and the chance of
measurable rain looks minimal at best with a somewhat better
chance in the north. But at this point do not think it even
warrants a mentionable pop. There will be a fair amount of clouds
between those associated with the front and those with a system
moving through the southeast. However...still expect temperatures
to warm to near or slightly above persistence.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/...
high pressure tracking across the upper Great Lakes will build
into the region through the weekend. This should result in mainly
clear skies. Temperatures will cool slightly for Saturday but then
rebound into the 70s on Sunday.

&&

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
southerly flow between departing high and an approaching cold
front will allow for above normal temperatures to continue into
Monday. 00z models in decent agreement moving a cold front through
the area Monday night/Tuesday morning. Have generally gone with
Middle Range probability of precipitation. However given time of day the chance of thunder
looks limited. Another high will build in behind this front. There
will be a temporary cool down on Wednesday with a quick recovery in
readings on Thursday.

&&

Aviation /15z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. A weak cold
front will work into the area today. Moisture is limited with this
feature. A few sprinkles are possible however kept precipitation
mention out of the tafs due to the isolated nature of any light
precipitation. High pressure will move into the region tonight and
into the day on Saturday.

Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...
near term...Hickman
short term...
long term...
aviation...Novak