Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
134 am EDT Monday Apr 27 2015
surface high pressure will allow for dry conditions across the
area tonight. A weak upper level disturbance will bring the chance
for a few light showers across eastern portions of the region on
Monday. High pressure will work back into the area for Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
in low level cold air advection pattern...cumulus has had a difficult time dissipating
across western portions of our area and has transitioned into more
of a scattered-broken SC field. Meanwhile...a middle level trough axis will
pivot down across our area overnight with a secondary middle level
trough axis/short wave approaching from the north toward daybreak.
This will make for a difficult cloud forecast as there are some
clear skies across our east at this time. There is a scattered axis of high
SC/low ac across far Northern Ohio this evening and think this
may continue to fill in overnight as it works south into our area
given the initial trough axis and some middle level moisture. More
widespread cloud cover should then approach/move into our area from
the north late tonight into Monday morning as the secondary trough
axis approaches. As a result...will go ahead and allow for some
clear skies across the east through this evening and then becoming
partly cloudy overnight with primarily just partly cloudy skies
across our west. As we begin to decouple this evening...temperatures
should drop off fairly quickly in areas with clear skies. Toyed
with a frost advisory across parts of the east...but with the
uncertain cloud forecast...will just continue with patchy frost
wording most areas.
Short term /6 am this morning through Tuesday night/...
a weak disturbance will allow for quite a bit of cloud cover and a
few light showers across eastern portions of the forecast area on Monday.
This will limit temperatures to the middle 50s to around 60. Cloud
cover will gradually decrease Monday night with temperatures
dropping down into the 30s across most locations. This will lead
to the potential for some patchy frost.
Cool northerly flow will continue for Tuesday. This will limit
temperatures to generally the low 60s. A system moving up from the
south will bring an increase in cloud cover Tuesday night. This
should keep temperatures from falling into the 30s and have low
temperatures in the low to middle 40s across the forecast area.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
upper low in the southern stream will open up and slowly move
through the Tennessee Valley while northern stream short wave drops
southeast across the western Great Lakes. These systems will
interact to become a long wave trough just east of the region by
Friday. Overall there is weak forcing across the forecast area but
cannot rule out a few showers into Thursday primarily across the
southern and eastern counties. But at this point expect any
precipitation to be light. Highs will be a bit below normal with
lows close to seasonal average. Ridging builds in at the surface and
aloft for the weekend. This will result in temperatures rising above
normal. Chance of any showers or storms looks minimal at this time.
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
VFR conditions are expected under surface high pressure. Clouds
associated with an upper trough will increase especially this
afternoon but ceilings will remain above 3000 feet. Isolated showers
may develop near cmh and lck but kept them out of the forecast for
now due to low confidence that taf sites will experience any
precipitation. Clouds will decrease tonight behind the upper trough
leaving mostly clear skies. Winds will stay out of the north with
speeds increasing to around 12 knots this afternoon.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.