Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1240 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015
low pressure traveling through the region will bring precipitation
this afternoon and tonight. Much colder air will be pulled into
the region late tonight into Monday. Snow and rain will be
possible Wednesday when a disturbance is forecast to cross the
Near term /through tonight/...
using the latest NAM...rap...and GFS...deepening low pressure to
our southwest is expected to track just slightly farther
northwest across the far northwest zones this evening...then northeast to
northeast Ohio overnight. This will bring warmer air even a little
farther north. Widespread precipitation will over spread the area this
afternoon ahead of a strong low level jet. Most areas will see
rain...except perhaps the far northwest where a little rain/snow mix may
occur. Even with the rain/snow mix...little to no accumulation is
expected. Highs will range from the middle 30s north to the middle 40s
For tonight...high resolution models and latest NCEP operational
models indicate a developing dry slot pushing in overnight.
Trailing deformation band may end up staying just to our north.
The result of warmer temperatures and the fact the deformation
band may remain just to our north...have drop all advisories.
Where Winter Storm Warning where in effect...we now have only
three counties in an advisory tonight for 1 to 3 inches of snow
when colder air filters back into the region. Lows will bottom out
in the middle teens northwest to the lower 30s southeast as gusty northwest winds
push colder air into the area.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
the low will be moving be in western PA by 12z Monday. Precipitation will
transition to all snow area wide before diminishing quickly in
cold advection behind the departing low.
Cold temperatures and wind chills are in store for Monday and
Monday night. Temperatures wont be recovering too much Monday in
the northwest and will be falling in the southeast. High pressure will build in
for Monday night. Lows will rang from the negative single digits
north to the middle teens south.
Dry conditions are expected Tuesday with highs in the upper 20s to
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
flow backs westerly a head of digging trough over the Great Lakes...
with a quick morning system moving through the region Tuesday
night/Wed. Will have chance probability of precipitation for this period with the best
chance across the north. Precipitation will likely mix with and change to rain
in the south prior to cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday
night to range from the lower 20s NE to the upper 20s SW. Highs on
Wednesday from the lower 30s north to the Lower/Middle 40s far south.
Reinforcing shot of cold air with high pressure of Canadian origin
to build southeast becoming centered over Ohio Thursday. Cold and dry
weather on tap with Wednesday night/S lows from the single digits across the
northwest where snow pack will exist to near 20 southeast. Highs on Thursday
to be around 15 degrees below normal...ranging from the upper teens
northwest to the upper 20s southeast.
This surface high builds slowly east to the East Coast by the end of the
week. Cold temperatures to continue with lows Thursday night from
the single digits below zero northwest to near 10 southeast.
As the high moves off to the east a return flow develops with some
some moderation to temperatures into the weekend. Highs on Friday
from near 20 north to the lower 30s far south and warming on
Saturday from the upper 20s north to around 40 south. Model solution
spread large next Saturday regarding timing and placement of next
system. Have kept forecast dry through Sat afternoon at this time more like the GFS solution
but this may change with later updates.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
low pressure will deepen as it moves from the Mississippi Valley
to kind by this evening...then northeast across Northern Ohio
tonight. The track continues to be a little farther north than
previous model runs. As a result...widespread rain moving into the
region this afternoon ahead of a strong low level jet is expected.
Ceilings will gradually drop into IFR as the atmospheric column
moistens. Visibilities will range between MVFR and IFR due to light
rain/moderate rain. For the overnight period...as the low heads
off to the northeast...the pressure gradient will tighten as much
colder air filters into the region. It looks like we may see a dry
slot work into the area this evening before some light snow or
flurries wrap around behind the low. Winds will shift to the west
then northwest at 15 with gusts to 30 knots.
On Monday...low pressure moves away as Arctic high pressure
approaches from the northwest. Light snow/flurries come to an end
and ceilings will return to VFR by Monday evening.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday into Thursday.
Ohio...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 am EST
Monday for ohz026-034-035.