Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
624 am EDT Sat Mar 28 2015
an unseasonably cold high pressure system will push east across
the area today into tonight. Increasing southerly flow ahead of an
approaching cold front will allow for more seasonable temperatures
on Sunday. Rain showers will develop Sunday afternoon and continue
into Sunday night as the cold front moves through the region.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a few snow showers are still lingering along and south of the
Ohio River...but skies have otherwise become mostly clear across
much of the rest of the forecast area early this morning. Expect the snow
shower activity to continue to taper off across the far south
through daybreak. Surface high pressure will build into the area
through this afternoon with mostly sunny skies expected. With the
cold airmass in place...only expect highs today in the low to middle
30s despite the sunshine. This could put the record low maximum
temperature for this date at Cincinnati of 37 degrees in jeopardy.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/...
expect mainly clear skies tonight as the surface high slides east
across our area. Southerly low level flow will be on the increase
through the day on Sunday as we start to get into some return flow
and a cold front approaches from the west late in the day. In
developing warm air advection...expect highs to push up into the middle 40s north to
lower 50s south. The cold front is associated with short wave
energy moving through the southern Great Lakes which will allow
for showers to develop west to east across our area later Sunday
afternoon and continue into Sunday night. Forecast soundings are
suggesting precipitation should remain rain across our area until possibly
late Sunday night across our far north. By this time though...precipitation
should be tapering off from the west so will keep precipitation as all
rain. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region
for Monday with highs generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
an area of low pressure will move across Northern Ohio on Tuesday.
Limited precipitation chances to northern portions of the forecast area on
Tuesday. The GFS is trying to bring some precipitation into the forecast area
on Wednesday however not seeing a strong signal for this and the
European model (ecmwf) keeps Wednesday dry across the forecast area. Southerly flow will allow
for temperatures to climb into the 60s across the forecast area on Wednesday.
Late Wednesday night through Thursday night another system
approaches and moves through the region. There is some limited
instability with this system and therefore have a chance of thunder
in the forecast. Models are in better agreement with this feature
and have increased precipitation chances for Thursday. There is
still some disagreement on the ending of the precipitation. Went
with the more progressive solution and have precipitation moving out
Aviation /10z Saturday through Wednesday/...
kcmh and klck have recently gone MVFR and have been bouncing
around the last hour or so as thin bands of stratocumulus can be
seen on low light this morning. Overall still expect clearing
skies as the day progresses though as surface high pressure
approaches from the northwest. Sunday morning surface high
pressure will move overhead allowing for mostly light winds and
VFR conditions. As the sunrises Sunday morning high pressure will
quickly start to pull off to the east. Low level winds look to be
Stout Sunday ahead of the next upper level disturbance. Looks like
gusty southerly winds will be likely Sunday.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday night.