Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
402 PM EDT Friday may 22 2015
high pressure will build into the region tonight and Saturday and
then move off to the east on Sunday.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
weak boundary near I-70 will pass through the rest of the area
through the early evening. Isolated showers have developed in
central Ohio along the boundary. Could still seem some activity
in the far eastern counties through the rest of the afternoon.
High pressure will build in overnight. There will be some high
clouds that will spread east across the area. But do not expect
this to have much if any influence on diurnal cooling. Have gone
below guidance for lows.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to build across the
area Saturday. Surface high will slide east during the latter
portion of the weekend. But upper heights will still be building.
Expect dry conditions through the period. There will be some middle
and high clouds from time to time. Temperatures will be warming.
Dew points will be gradually increasing as well particularly
Sunday and Sunday night. MOS looked reasonable for highs but
undercut it slightly for lows.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
an unsettled pattern will be in place for Monday through Thursday.
Warm southerly flow will lead to high temperatures generally in the
80s and low temperatures in the 60s. Multiple disturbances will
work through the area through this time leading to shower and
thunderstorm chances during the Monday through Thursday time frame.
A break in the thunderstorm activity is expected on Friday with high
pressure across the area. Models are similar with the main features
in the long term although there are some minor strength and timing
issues. Due to this have used a model blend for the long term time
Aviation /20z Friday through Wednesday/...
cumulus has started to fill in across the region this afternoon ahead
of a cold front dropping down into the area. An isolated shower will
be possible as we progress through the period of peak heating
later this afternoon...but with forcing weak and moisture
limited...coverage should remain isolated at best. Otherwise...the
combination of drier air moving in behind the front and the loss
of daytime heating will allow for cumulus to dissipate by early this
evening. We will then see some middle and high level clouds will
begin to work in from the west through the later part of the taf
period. With light winds overnight...some patchy valley fog will
be possible again so will include a tempo group for some MVFR
visibility restrictions at kluk late tonight.
Outlook...thunderstorms possible Monday through Wednesday...with
MVFR ceilings/visibilities possible.