Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
issued by National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
1141 am EST Wednesday Jan 28 2015
high pressure will bring dry conditions and temperatures averaging
about 5 degrees below normal today. A cold front will approach
tonight and move through the region on Thursday. This system will
bring wintry precipitation at least at the onset in some
locations. As the low pressure system departs any lingering
showers should turn to snow showers from late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. High pressure will begin to build back into the
area on Friday and remain in control of the weather into the start
of the weekend.
Near term /through tonight/...
dry conditions can be expected today due to high pressure across
the region. Temperatures have been slow to climb across the
central and northern part of the County Warning Area where snow is on the ground
and are currently in the upper teens to lower 20s. Temperatures
remain slightly warmer across the SW corner of the forecast area where
temperatures are in the middle 20s at present. Southerly flow
developing this afternoon and continuing into tonight should still
allow temperatures to rise into the middle to upper 20s across the
northern half of the area to the low to middle 30s across the southern
half of the area. There will be an increase in high and middle clouds
through the day ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Cloud cover will continue to increase this evening in advance of
the next system tonight. Temperatures will generally be steady
during the evening hours with guidance suggesting min temperatures
around midnight in many locations outside of any decoupled
valleys in eastern and southeast part of the County Warning Area. Southerly flow
will increase tonight. As southerly flow increases temperatures
will begin to slowly rise through the overnight hours.
Precipitation will hold off for most of the overnight hours. Light
precipitation will begin to move into southwestern portions of the
forecast area around sunrise.
Short term /Thursday through Thursday night/...
In the SW part of the area...expect temperatures to already be
above freezing near dawn and expect precipitation to be in the
form of rain. There will be a brief window Thursday morning across
the rest of the forecast area where temperatures may be at or just below
freezing as precipitation moves into the area. Due to this a brief
period of freezing rain will be possible considering the cold and
initially frozen ground that should be in place across the area
due to the recent colder weather. Any freezing rain is expected to
be light. Continued to mention freezing rain potential in the severe weather potential statement.
In addition to the freezing rain...cannot rule out some brief
sleet or even a touch of snow in the north as well.
Warmer air will continue to surge into the area by middle to late
Thursday morning and as it does temperatures will rise above
freezing across the forecast area. A cold front move through the forecast area during
the afternoon and early evening hours on Thursday bringing
additional precipitation chances to the area. As the colder air
begins to work into the region precipitation will changeover to
light snow showers. Light snow showers will continue Thursday
night due to a combination of a weak disturbance and winds off of
Lake Michigan. Snowfall accumulation is expected to light and an
inch or less. Any remaining light snow shower activity will taper
off Friday morning.
High pressure will begin to work into the forecast area later Friday
afternoon into Friday night. Cloud cover will decrease through the
night Friday night and winds will be light. With this combination
expect temperatures to drop down into the single digits to the
teens across the forecast area.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
low level flow will begin to back around to the west and then
southwest Saturday into Saturday night as the high pushes off to
the east and short wave energy approaches from the west. The
models appear to be having some difficulty in resolving how much
to phase the northern stream short wave with the energy moving
across the Gulf Coast states. As a result...there are some
differences between the 12z GFS/CMC/ECMWF in the placement and
timing of the associated surface features and their resulting
thermal fields. That being said...they are all still in general
agreement spreading a decent chance of precipitation across our area late
Saturday night into Sunday. At this point it looks like we would
be cold enough for mostly snow...but will introduce a rain
snow/mix across the south as both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are suggesting
that a little warmer air may sneak up into our area.
Precipitation will begin to taper off Sunday night as the wave moves off to
the east. However...developing cold air advection and a fetch off of Lake Michigan
will allow for some lingering snow showers later Sunday night into
Monday morning. In good cold air advection...expect only a minimal rise in temperatures on
Monday...ranging from the middle teens north to middle 20s south. Surface
high pressure will build east across the region Monday night into
Tuesday. With clearing skies Monday night...low temperatures will
likely end up being dependent on how much snow is possibly on the
ground from the system on Sunday.
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
high pressure will bring initial VFR which should prevail in most
locations through at least 12z on Thursday. High clouds should
overspread by this evening and overnight with a middle deck to
follow...moving in after 9z on Thursday.
Outlook...from 11z to 17z on Thursday...MVFR ceilings and or visible should
develop and some at least brief periods of IFR ceilings and visible
are possible 18z Thursday through at least 6z Friday. A gradual
improvement to VFR should occur in all areas 6z to 18z Friday with
the VFR continuing into Sunday. At the onset of the precipitation
on Thursday...a period of freezing rain will be possible generally
north of the Ohio River or mainly for locations north and east of
luk and cvg. Ceilings and visibilities are anticipated to deteriorate
again on Sunday...to MVFR and then to IFR and perhaps Airport mins
by Sunday evening.