Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1035 PM EDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015
a cold front will move through late tonight into Wednesday morning
bringing showers to the area. High pressure will then move into
the region during the day on Wednesday and keep dry conditions
across the area through the day on Friday.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
upper level low centered over the northern Great Lakes will migrate
slowly east influencing our weather the next couple of days.
Short wave energy rotating southeast around this low will drop through Ohio overnight.
Secondary surface cold front combined with 50 knots low level jet will provide
low level forcing leading to showers overnight. The best coverage
of rain showers will occur across the south where best forcing and
moisture come together.
Previous forecast had good handle on probability of precipitation distribution and thus have
kept...with categorical probability of precipitation across the southeast late tonight.
Good temperature gradient across the region with lows from the upper
30s northwest to the upper 40s southeast.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/...
winds will pick up during the day on Wednesday although not
expecting wind gusts as high as Tuesday. Expect wind gusts around
35 miles per hour. Rain showers will move out of the forecast area during the morning
hours and surface high pressure will begin to work into the area.
With cool airmass in place and decent cloud cover for a majority
of the day...temperatures will be limited to the upper 40s to
Clouds will begin to clear out late in the day leaving clear to
mostly clear conditions across the area Wednesday night. Wind
gusts will decrease in the evening however expect the winds to
stay up a little bit across most locations Wednesday night. Winds
will have the potential to limit some of the frost however expect
more frost along and south of the Ohio River where winds will be
lighter. Although the greater frost potential will be across
southern portions of the forecast area there is a greater potential for
freezing temperatures across northern portions of the forecast area. Decided
to hold off on a freeze watch at this time due to expected
temperatures being so close to freezing. Added patchy frost
mention in across the entire forecast area for Wednesday night into the severe weather potential statement
and added freeze mention in the severe weather potential statement for across the north.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
a cool pattern is indicated by models showing a persistent upper
trough over the eastern Continental U.S.. dry weather is expected for Thursday
and Friday when high pressure is forecast to extend across the Ohio
Valley along a northwest upper flow. Low pressure and a rather large
swath of moisture is indicated for Saturday...producing rain
showers. Another dry period is shaping up for Sunday and Monday with
the return of high pressure. Showers may return on Tuesday with a
trough of low pressure...but model solutions are not in good
agreement and confidence is low for this event.
Temperatures may stay below normal through the period. Highs are
forecast to be in the 50s most locations Thursday through Saturday.
Frost may occur Thursday night when lows in the 30s are expected.
Highs in the low to middle 60s may be attained Sunday through Tuesday.
Normal highs for this period are in the middle and upper 60s.
Aviation /03z Wednesday through Sunday/...
upper level low will migrate slowly east through the northern Great Lakes
through the taf forecast period. Short wave energy will rotate southeast around this low
through Ohio overnight into Wednesday. Secondary surface cold front to drop southeast
through the Ohio Valley late tonight/early Wednesday. Axis of low level
convergence associated with 50 knots low level jet develops which aids forcing
and showers development.
VFR conditions will prevail through the evening with mostly middle
level clouds. Low level moisture will develop with aforementioned
front late tonight.Showers and possibly a period of MVFR ceilings
will be observed. After showers end VFR low clouds to persist
into Wednesday afternoon.
West southwest winds will diminish to around 10 kts overnight and
then west winds will increase some and become gusty on Wednesday but
not as strong as today.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.