Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
629 PM EDT Friday may 22 2015
high pressure will build into the region tonight and Saturday and
then move off to the east on Sunday.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
weak boundary near I-70 will pass through the rest of the area
through the early evening. Isolated showers have developed in
central Ohio along the boundary. Could still seem some activity
in the far eastern counties through the rest of the afternoon.
High pressure will build in overnight. There will be some high
clouds that will spread east across the area. But do not expect
this to have much if any influence on diurnal cooling. Have gone
below guidance for lows.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to build across the
area Saturday. Surface high will slide east during the latter
portion of the weekend. But upper heights will still be building.
Expect dry conditions through the period. There will be some middle
and high clouds from time to time. Temperatures will be warming.
Dew points will be gradually increasing as well particularly
Sunday and Sunday night. MOS looked reasonable for highs but
undercut it slightly for lows.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
an unsettled pattern will be in place for Monday through Thursday.
Warm southerly flow will lead to high temperatures generally in the
80s and low temperatures in the 60s. Multiple disturbances will
work through the area through this time leading to shower and
thunderstorm chances during the Monday through Thursday time frame.
A break in the thunderstorm activity is expected on Friday with high
pressure across the area. Models are similar with the main features
in the long term although there are some minor strength and timing
issues. Due to this have used a model blend for the long term time
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
not many changes in store for the 0z tafs as a cold front
continues to push south through the area. There where some
isolated showers near Columbus but they have started to fizzle.
There is again a chance of some patchy valley fog Saturday
morning as winds will likely go calm overnight. A pretty good
shield of high and middle level clouds have started to push in from
the west though which will help to limit the reductions in
visibilities to mostly MVFR. Winds remain light Saturday and turn
towards the southeast as high pressure quickly pulls east. Mostly
VFR conditions expected through the issuance.
Outlook...thunderstorms possible Monday through Wednesday...with
MVFR ceilings/visibilities possible.