Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1027 am EDT Thursday may 28 2015
a weak front will extend across the area today and dissipate
tonight. Warmer and more humid air will return on Friday and
Saturday...with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Another cold front will move into the area on Sunday and
Monday...continuing the chances for storms into early next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a weak boundary extends from southeast Indiana east northeast into
central Ohio. Stratus along and south of the boundary will
eventually break up into a scattered to broken cumulus field. High
resolution near term guidance suggests that there will be little
movement to the front through the day. There is some slight
moisture pooling along it. This combined with heating could result
in a isolated activity developing. Instability looks meager so may
not even get thunder if any echoes do develop. Forecast
temperatures look reasonable at this point.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
high pressure will be moving into the northeastern states on
Thursday night...with a return to southwesterly flow beginning
over the middle Ohio Valley by Friday morning. Some of the models
seem a little too aggressive in bringing precipitation back into
the region on Friday...but with increasing moisture amid weak
isentropic ascent...it does appear that shower/storm chances will
be necessary by Friday afternoon...especially in the west /
southwest portions of the forecast area. Given the nebulous
forcing...timing/location for this activity is not going to be an
exact forecast. With shear on the weak end of the scale and
instability only marginally more impressive...strong storms appear
As the pressure gradient begins to tighten on Saturday...the
southwesterly flow will become a little more pronounced...helping
to increase instability ahead of an approaching cold front. With
high confidence in fairly widespread precipitation from Saturday
afternoon into Sunday...probability of precipitation have been increased to the likely
category County Warning Area-wide (with some categorical probability of precipitation at peak diurnal
timing in the far north on saturday). Wind support is going to be
fairly weak through the period...but persistent moisture
transport and near-surface convergence definitely support the
higher precipitation chances (even if the threat for any strong
storms is uncertain).
Temperatures on Saturday will moderate slightly from
Friday...though the vast majority of the day will still be solidly
south of the frontal boundary (something that will certainly
change by sunday). Highs should still reach the 80s for most
locations...though where precipitation chances are higher...there
should be more of a temperature gradient north of Interstate 70.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
appears as though front will be slow to make progress and thus at
least scattered rain showers and thunder will continue into Sunday mainly
south parts of County Warning Area. Some better drying across the north. The front
will linger into Monday with scattered rain showers and thunder again
mainly near the Ohio River. Some discrepancy about extent of
drying for Tuesday and Wednesday. Will opt for token small pop for
now. Temperatures cooling down Sunday and Monday but went at or just
above guidance with clouds at night. Near guidance for Tuesday and
Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/...
stratus affecting terminals except central Ohio will continue to
lift and eventually scatter over the next several hours. Once this
occurs expect VFR to prevail through the rest of the day and into
the evening. Cannot rule out some visibility restrictions
developing at kluk late in the taf period.
Outlook...thunderstorms will be possible Friday through Monday.