Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1024 PM EDT Thursday Oct 8 2015
a cold front will move through the region on Friday. High pressure
will then work into the area for the weekend. An upper level
disturbance will bring a chance for rain showers to the region
Monday into Monday night.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
a cold front will approach the area tonight. A few showers will
occur during the overnight hours ahead of the front. There is also
a chance of fog in the valley ahead of the front as winds have
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...
the cold front will move through during the day on Friday.
Precipitation chances will be greatest across eastern portions of
the forecast area middle day into the afternoon hours. Instability is limited
and limited thunder mention to a slight chance across the southeast half
of the forecast area. Precipitation will taper off Friday evening. Lingering
cloud cover Friday night will keep temperatures from dropping off
too quickly overnight.
High pressure will be in place for Saturday and Saturday night
allowing for dry conditions. Cumulus is expected to develop during the
day on Saturday however skies will be mostly clear for Saturday
night. Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures
to drop down into the low to middle 40s. Cannot rule out a few
temperatures in the upper 30s in outlying areas across eastern
portions of the forecast area.
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
progressive pattern will predominate through the period. Ridging
over the region on Sunday will allow temperatures to rise above
normal. A short wave and associated cold front will move across the
region Monday afternoon and evening. Even with limited moisture
there appears to be enough lift to bring a chance of showers.
A progression of weaker short waves will pass Wednesday and
Thursday. At this point it appears too dry to result in any further
precipitation. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals for the
middle to late part of the week.
Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions across the terminals this evening as a cold front
approaches from the west. The cold front is currently located in
Iowa and pushing east. Ahead of the front there is a potential for
some patchy fog overnight as winds at kluk have already
decoupled. Widespread cloud cover will keep fog limited only to
normal problem areas. High res models indicate the front pushing
through Dayton between 5 to 7 am while closer to 8 to 10 am at
Columbus and Cincinnati. Forecast soundings for tomorrow dont
support much in the way of thunder (esp. The gfs) while the NAM is
slightly more bullish. Overall think the chance of thunder is
limited. Ahead of the front expect southwest winds with winds
veering to the northwest behind the front. Speeds are forecasted
to increase just above 10 knots on Friday...with gusts to 20 knots
possible at day and iln.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday night.