Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
925 am EDT Monday Apr 27 2015
a weak upper level disturbance dropping south through the eastern
Great Lakes will allow for a slight chance of rain showers across
central and eastern Ohio today. Slightly below average
temperatures are expected through the middle of the week before
low pressure tracks south of the area...providing a slight chance
of rain showers along and south of the Ohio River on Wednesday. By
the end of the week...surface high pressure will begin to build
back into the area...providing warmer temperatures and dry
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
upper low off the East Coast with east-west elongated middle level trough
extending back into the Great Lakes. A pair of embedded shortwaves
to pivot around the western periphery of this trough dropping south
through the Ohio Valley today.
Initial short wave dropping south through the Ohio Valley this morning
resulting in an increase in middle level clouds.
Second short wave over the northern Great Lakes to drop south through eastern Ohio
this afternoon. Airmass is relatively dry but there is currently light
rain occurring in cleveland's area.
Kiln 12z sounding again supports high temperatures in the upper
50s. 850 mb temperatures are currently around one degree c with some weak
cold air advection expected this afternoon behind the shortwave. This in
combination with more clouds than yesterday might hold down temperatures
a bit from yesterdays high. Made only minor adjustments to maximum T
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/...
Ohio Valley in northerly middle level flow between ridge building into
the western Great Lakes and sprawling low off the East Coast. In the
wake of this afternoon/S short wave expect some lingering clouds mainly this
evening with surface high pressure nosing in from the north.
Temperatures will be on the cool side with patchy frost possible
mainly across the far east in protected areas. Lows tonight to range
from the middle 30s NE to the upper 30s SW.
In split flow regime...Northern Ridge to build into the Great Lakes with
surface high pressure controlling our weather Tuesday as southern system moves
into lower MS valley. Temperatures will moderate slightly Tuesday but
still remain below normal...with highs from near 60 north to the
lower 60s south.
Southern system to slide east through the Tennessee Valley with surface low along the Gulf
states Tuesday night/Wed. Best moisture and lift are well to our
south. Will continue to limit any mention of precipitation to slight chance probability of precipitation
in far southeast Wednesday afternoon. Clouds will help keep temperatures a little milder
Tuesday night with lows from near 40 NE to the middle 40s SW. Highs on
Wednesday will generally be in the lower and middle 60s.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
upper low in the southern stream will open up and slowly move
through the Tennessee Valley while northern stream short wave drops
southeast across the western Great Lakes. These systems will
interact to become a long wave trough just east of the region by
Friday. Overall there is weak forcing across the forecast area but
cannot rule out a few showers into Thursday primarily across the
southern and eastern counties. But at this point expect any
precipitation to be light. Highs will be a bit below normal with
lows close to seasonal average. Ridging builds in at the surface and
aloft for the weekend. This will result in temperatures rising above
normal. Chance of any showers or storms looks minimal at this time.
Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/...
VFR conditions are expected under surface high pressure. Clouds
associated with an upper trough will increase this afternoon but
ceilings will likely remain above 3000 feet. Isolated showers may
develop near cmh and lck but kept them out of the forecast for now
due to low confidence that taf sites will experience any precipitation.
Clouds will decrease tonight behind the upper trough leaving
mostly clear skies. Winds will stay out of the north with speeds
increasing to around 12 knots this afternoon. Cvg will see
VFR and northeast winds after 12z Tuesday.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.