Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
134 PM EDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will allow for dry conditions across the area today.
A few sprinkles will be possible tonight as a warm front lifts
northward across the area. An upper level disturbance will move
across the region Thursday night bringing rain showers to the area.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
high pressure centered over WI will nose into the region today.
This high will allow for dry conditions across the forecast area. Northerly
flow will lead to cooler than normal temperatures today. High
temperatures are only expected to range from the middle 50s north to
the lower 60s far south.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/...
a warm front will lift northward tonight. Moisture is limited
with this feature and therefore limited precipitation mention to a
chance of sprinkles across western portions of the region. Across
eastern portions of the area east of kcmh there will be less cloud
cover tonight and winds will drop off more. Due to this
temperatures will drop more across this area down into the middle
30s. Kept temperatures just above freezing due to some
uncertainty with the amount of clouds. Added a patchy frost
mention in tonight in the counties east of kcmh.

Temperatures will warm quickly on Thursday and winds will increase
across the area. Southerly flow will bring above normal
temperatures to the region on Thursday. Due to a combination of
dry fuels...gusty winds...and relative humidity values less than
25 percent there will be the potential for an enhanced fire danger
Thursday afternoon.

An upper level disturbance moves through Thursday night. Increased
precipitation chances for Thursday night. Any instability is
pretty limited and therefore decided against having any thunder in
the forecast. This feature and the associated precipitation will
move out of the area by Friday morning. There will be another
chance for some rain showers Friday night as another weak
disturbance works through. High pressure will work back in for
Saturday. Cool northerly flow will limit temperatures to the upper
50s to upper 60s on Saturday.

&&

Long term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
there continues to be considerable model variation for the latter
half of the weekend and early next week. Of note...the steadier
European solution shifted its mass fields a good bit with the 12z
cycle. The northern hemispheric pattern supports the development
of several closed lows aloft. One is projected to form east of The
Rockies...while the other evolves from our Friday system over
southeast Canada. An east to west baroclinic zone will develop
between the two lows...although its position has been wavering and
of course this could affect our local weather. Only minor
adjustments were made to the temperature forecasts through the
period...with cooler air expected to win out at this time. However
its possible there could be quite a gradient in temperatures
across the area. Sky cover was increased...although it may be
mainly middle and high level moisture at times. While probability of precipitation have been
increased a little...did not go too high due to timing and
placement uncertainties. Not to mention...middle level ridging
between the lows may assert itself on Sunday and Monday. Chances
of rain will increase on Tuesday as the vertically stack low
pressure system slowly gets closer to our area. Also included
thunder Tuesday due to increased dynamics and the possibility that
instability could be drawn northward into the area...but did not
get fancy trying to delineate where this may set up. Thunder may
have to be added to Monday for later forecast cycles depending on
how the possible warm sector evolves.

&&

Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...

VFR conditions will continue through the taf period. Few to
scattered cumulus clouds will dissipate with loss of heating.
High and then middle clouds will increase across the region this
evening ahead of a warm front. These clouds will thin some on
Thursday. North-northwest winds at or below 10 knots will weaken and
veer after 00z eventually becoming light east tonight and then
southeast around 10 kts Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday night.

&&

Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Novak
near term...Arkansas
short term...Novak
long term...Snyder
aviation...Arkansas