Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1039 PM EDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Synopsis...
a large trough of low pressure will dominate the Great Lakes
region through middle week. This trough will allow unseasonably cool
temperatures and the possibility of scattered shower activity
through Wednesday.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
clouds persist across central Ohio and may continue well into the
night. Radar is indicating a few light returns in this area which
the hrrr also picked up on. So cannot rule out an isolated shower
or sprinkle over the next several hours. Forecast lows look
reasonable at this point.

&&

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night/...
with all models keeping the upper low over the St Johns Bay area
with trough dominating the Great Lakes...have continued diurnal cumulus
and showers through the day in the northern half of the forecast area.
Temperatures will again struggle to reach into the middle 70s. Surface
flow backs to light westerly by overnight Tuesday night...allowing for
not quite as cool overnight lows but still significantly below
normal. Have generally went a little cooler than MOS for overnight
lows.

&&

Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
period begins with upper level energy rotating around the base of
a 500 mb low...located just north of the Great Lakes. This energy
kicks off instability showers across the northern half of the forecast area on
Wednesday.

The upper low begins to fill and rotate NE Wednesday night into
Thursday. Forecast area is in between systems Thursday into Friday as the upper
low continues to lift and the southern stream 500 mb flow runs through the deep
south. Cant rule out a stray shower Thursday into Friday...but feel
the chance is low enough to leave the forecast dry.

Additional upper level energy drops into the eastern U.S. Mean trough over
the weekend. This deepens and sharpens the trough over the forecast area. The GFS
and European model (ecmwf) have swapped scenarios over the weekend as the European model (ecmwf) now
lingers the 500 mb trough deeper and longer than the GFS. This results in
a little more precipitation produced by the European model (ecmwf). There should be enough lift
both Saturday and Sunday for diurnal convection to develop. Will
carry chance probability of precipitation in the east and slight chance in the west on Saturday
and chance probability of precipitation all locations Sunday as the troughs lifts east.

By Monday...the short wave trough has lifted NE of the region...so left
Monday dry.

Temperatures will remain below normal for the later part of the
week...but they will gradually warm. Highs in the middle to upper 70s
on Wednesday will warm to the upper 70s to lower 80s by Friday. The
highs will remain stagnant either side of 80 through the weekend.
Lows will generally be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/...
clouds will continue to diminish during the evening. Cannot rule
out some localized visibility restrictions at kluk towards 12z.
Otherwise VFR will prevail. A broken to scattered deck will
develop with heating on Tuesday and persist through the day. A few
showers are possible after 18z particularly around kday. But
probability and expected impact are too low to include in tafs at
this point.

Outlook...no significant weather is expected at this time.

&&

Iln watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
In...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jdr
near term...
short term...jdr
long term...sites
aviation...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations