Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
930 PM EST Friday Feb 5 2016
high pressure will move east tonight into Saturday as a weak
weather disturbance aloft passes across the Great Lakes. A
stronger weather system is then forecast to dig southeast into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will
warm into the weekend followed by much colder temperatures for
much of next week.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
a trough axis is crossing the Ohio Valley this evening...resulting
in some additional cloud cover over the northern half of Ohio with
middle level stratocu. Trough I shown by the wind shift to west-
northwest and increased dewpoints behind it but should go
unnoticed by most tonight. With the upper level trough axis over
the region as well...a good bit of cirrus is apparent but not as a
continuous deck which should result in some partly cloudy skies
over the region...possibly seen by some as a clear sky if the cirrus
is thin enough. Minor changes to temperature/dewpoint traces should also
Lows will range from the lower to middle 20s.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday/...
for Saturday into Saturday night...surface high pressure will move
off the middle Atlantic/southern New England coast. Meanwhile...a
weak disturbance will pass across the Great Lakes. Moisture with
this system is not overly deep...and there is also a lack of
forcing. Therefore...will continue with a dry forecast with a
varied mix of clouds through the period. Southerly flow on
Saturday will warm temperatures into the 40s region wide.
Temperatures will drop back into the upper 20s to lower 30s by
For Sunday...models continue to advertise a digging upper level
low into the upper MS River Valley and western Great Lakes. We should
see another dry day ahead of this system with increasing/thickening
clouds through the day. Southerly flow and filtered sunshine will
boost temperatures into the middle 40s to lower 50s.
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
forecast period will have Ohio Valley in large trough with at or
below normal temperatures through the period. Sunday night and Monday will
see front push across area with rain showers mixing with or changing
to snow showers. Some uncertainty as to extent of precipitation coverage
and amount but generally light quantitative precipitation forecast should lead to only minor snow
accumulations if any with temperatures mainly above freezing through much
of the day. Colder air arrives more in earnest Monday night into
Tuesday with disturbances bringing flurries and snow showers. Again
nothing significant but minor accumulation should be the rule.
Series of disturbances finally get pushed off to the east by late
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Should dry out for Thursday. Some
indication of a disturbance with limited moisture late Thursday into
Thursday night but will keep benign weather in for now with cold
temperatures. Temperatures generally near guidance with little rise or
steady for Monday.
Aviation /02z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will be found through the taf period with cirrus
overtopping the region and some scattered to potential broken SC around
4-5kft possible through midnight over the northern taf sites.
Winds will relax overnight and go southerly under 4-5kt.
Daybreak will see cirrus exiting west-east with a SW increase in wind speed
to 7-8kt and some very disorganized few-scattered cumulus possible from
4-8kft in the afternoon. Skies will clear with nightfall and winds
should relax again as they turn southerly and lighten
significantly for yet another overnight period. The daytime clouds
will be caused by an upper trough passage but the stronger
forcing of this feature appears to be situated well SW and well north
of the Ohio Valley. Trough axis crosses in the afternoon but
appears to be disjointed with the moisture fields for less clouds
in the forecast.
Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible from Sunday night into