Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
448 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014
high pressure will keep dry conditions across the region through
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
clear skies will continue through the overnight hours with light
to calm winds across the area. Temperatures will drop off quickly
this evening. Went on the cool side or slightly cooler than
guidance for low temperatures overnight with good radiational
cooling setup. Kept low temperatures in the 40s however cannot
rule out an isolated overnight low in the 30s. Dry airmass is in
place however some River Valley fog will still be possible
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night/...
high pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region
through the short term. High temperatures are expected to be in
the 70s with low temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Not expecting
much in the way of cloud cover through this time period. Clear
skies will give way to a few middle and high clouds later in the
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
a ridge of high pressure will linger at the surface and aloft Friday
through Sunday. This pattern will allow clear...dry weather to
persist during the first half of the long term.
The high pressure system will start to move east on Monday...while
an upper trough and weak surface low develop to the west. The low is
expected to lift across the area on Tuesday. Moisture...isentropic
lift...and instability will increase on a southeast flow ahead of
the low...bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms starting
Monday afternoon in southwest counties...spreading across the area
Guidance indicates highs close to 80 Friday through Monday...
slipping a bit into the middle and upper 70s Tuesday under clouds and
precipitation. Normal highs will be in the lower to middle 70s.
Aviation /20z Tuesday through Sunday/...
dry air will remain in place. Could eventually be a few cumulus on
Wednesday in the Cincinnati area. Expect localized fog to affect
kluk overnight otherwise VFR continues with light easterly winds.
Outlook...no significant weather is expected.