Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
748 PM EDT Tuesday may 26 2015

a warm and humid airmass will remain in place over the next few
days. Multiple disturbances will bring several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms to the region through the week.


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
showers and thunderstorms will continue to work through the forecast area
this evening. Dropped the remainder of the watch as the severe threat
has moved through that area. An isolated strong to severe threat
continues across eastern portions of the forecast area this evening. Some
showers and thunderstorms will linger into the overnight hours
before tapering off. Went close to guidance with low temperatures
in the 60s.


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/...
dry conditions are expected for the start of the short term. A
frontal boundary will approach the area Wednesday afternoon. This
system will weaken Wednesday evening as it continues to move
through the area. There is the potential for isolated strong to
severe storms...primarily across northwest portions of the forecast area. As the
frontal boundary sags south shower and thunderstorm activity will
taper off across northern portions of the forecast area Wednesday night. Some
lingering activity will remain across extreme southern portions of
the forecast area by the end of the short term.

Warm southerly flow will allow for temperatures to climb into the
80s again for the day on Wednesday. Temperatures will drop down
into the 60s Wednesday night.


Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
an unsettled pattern is forecast to persist through the period.

Period starts with an upper ridge in place. A humid and unstable
airmass circulating around a surface high centered to the east will
result in a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday mainly over
southeast counties. Similar conditions Friday may result in a few
more thunderstorms...possibly aided by cooling aloft as the upper
ridge begins to erode.

Organized and widespread convection will be possible Saturday
through Monday when a slow moving frontal boundary is pushed
southeastward to iln by a broad upper trough. The chance for
thunderstorms will persist over parts of the area on Tuesday when
the frontal boundary is prognosticated to linger to the south.

Warm conditions with highs in the 80s are in store for Thursday
through Saturday in a southerly flow ahead of the front. Readings in
the 70s are expected Sunday through Tuesday in the cooler airmass
behind the front.


Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...

Moist southwesterly flow aloft in place across the Ohio Valley. An
embedded short wave pivoting through region combined with moderate instability led
to the development of scattered storms late this afternoon. Some of these
showers and thunderstorms will linger into the early evening
before coming to an end.

Model forecast soundings continue to show an increase in low level
moisture late tonight. Have mainly MVFR conditions developing in
fog with IFR at kluk and IFR conditions can not be ruled out at
all taf locations. The fog/status will improve Wednesday morning
with another chance for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon as a frontal
boundary approaches the region from the northwest. At this time have a
mention of thunderstorms in the vicinity.

Outlook...thunderstorms possible Wednesday evening and again
Saturday into Sunday.


Iln watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...Novak
short term...Novak
long term...coniglio

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations