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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
331 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO THE CAROLINAS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD STALL 
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CUMULUS FIELDS MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THAN 
YESTERDAY BUT SO FAR DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN THE EXCEPTION RATHER 
THAN THE RULE AS OPPOSED TO SHALLOWER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER 
ITS MUCH TOO EARLY TO RULE OUT ANY DEEPER CONVECTION AS SOME DEEPER 
(EVEN SPS-WORTHY) CONVECTION DEVELOPED AFTER THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 
EVEN SO, COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND WANE CONSIDERABLY WITH THE 
LOSS OF HEATING FOR A RAIN-FREE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 
COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE-INDUCED FLUX OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD KEEP 
READINGS A BIT WARM. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT 200 AND 300 MB THE RIDGE WILL
BE TO OUR NORTH...AT 500 AND 700 MB THE RIDGE WILL RUN ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGE SHOULD BE
DISPLACED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS GEORGIA. ANY UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE FORCED ON A PATH WELL NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS.

850 MB TEMPS SHOULD STABILIZE AROUND +19C...PERHAPS APPROACHING
+20C INLAND ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS BOTH DAYS
IN THE MID 90S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH 89-93 NEAR THE
COAST.

WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS PLUS HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
ENHANCE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
TYPICAL PRESSURE DROP FROM THE COAST TO THE PIEDMONT REGION OF THE
CAROLINAS BY 2-3 MB ABOVE TYPICAL WITH A BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE...
WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING SEABREEZE WIND
SPEEDS AND OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JETTING. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD WARMER LOW TEMPS THAN WHAT MOS
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR QUITE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE'LL HAVE
THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY PLUS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT THESE
FEATURES ALONG DON'T IMPLY MORE THAN ABOUT 10-15% CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THE 12Z NAM IS GOING ON OUR A LIMB INDICATING AN MCS
DIVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT THIS SPECIFIC IDEA IS NOT INDICATED IN THE BULK OF
OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM 
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL 
PLAINS BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST 
COAST AND INLAND TROUGH WILL PREVAIL. DURING THE WEEKEND THE TROUGH 
MAY SHIFT OFF THE COAST TEMPORARILY...HOWEVER IN THE MEANTIME THE 
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL EXIST EACH DAY WITH 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES SATURDAY GIVEN THE POSITION OF SURFACE TROUGH
...AND MORE-SO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE 
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. REGARDING MAX/MIN TEMPS DID NOT 
STRAY TOO FAR FROM MEX NUMBERS WHICH ARE APPROXIMATELY A CATEGORY 
ABOVE CLIMO. THE HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100F EACH 
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH A THERMAL/PIEDMONT TROUGH 
AND A SEA BREEZE RESULTANT THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND AROUND 
NOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST NEAT THE COAST. 
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE 
LOW LEVELS. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL END BY EARLY EVENING...WITH A QUIET 
NIGHT EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND 
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH 
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK 20KT JETLET FORMS THIS
EVENING AT AROUND 925MB BUT IT APPEARS TO BE A BIT ONLY TO THEN
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST LATER ON. WHILE THERE COULD BE A
FEW GUSTS THAT HIGH THIS EVENING IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THOSE
SPEEDS WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AS THEY HAD TROUBLE LAST NIGHT
IN A SIMILAR SETUP. THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE THE VERY NEAR TERM
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF 10-15KT FLOW WITH 2 TO
4 FT WIND WAVES/SWELL MIX IN AN AVG PERIOD OF 8-9 SEC.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AS INLAND TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S WE
EXPECT A STRONG SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP BOTH DAYS WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT AND VEER MORE WESTERLY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE LOW. THE MORNING HOURS MAY
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS...WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE SWEEPING UP ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY AND THROWING IT WELL
INLAND. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 3-5 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEAST 10-SECOND SWELL AND LOCAL 4-SECOND WIND WAVES...HIGHEST
DURING THE EVENINGS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY...THEN THE 
FLOW MAY VEER TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH 
MOVES OFF THE COAST. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME 
ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK 
AROUND 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN BY 
SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE SEAS 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MBB/DL

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