Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
232 PM EDT Friday Oct 24 2014
dry weather will continue through the weekend and into much of next
week. High pressure will continue to build into the area from the
west...moving offshore early next week. Seasonable temperatures will
warm several degrees above normal next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 2 PM Friday...mid/upper trough axis moving toward the western
Carolinas this afternoon will move off the coast tonight. Mainly
high clouds associated with this system will push through resulting
in mostly clear skies during the early morning hours. Radiational
cooling will become more efficient overnight as the high clouds
abate. Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 40s with near
40 possible across the typical cold spots if the clouds exit earlier
than currently forecast.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
as of 300 PM Friday...an upper level shortwave will exit the
coast Saturday morning. Subtropical ridging over Texas will
migrate eastward to Florida by Sunday night with continued deep
dry northwesterly flow over the Carolinas. Clear skies are expected
through the period. With relatively warm thicknesses prognosticated on
the models we should run a couple degrees above normal on high
temperatures...especially Sunday. Except for adding a weak
seabreeze (backed wind directions) along the coast south of Cape
Fear both Saturday and Sunday afternoons...changes from the
previous forecast were exceedingly minor.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
as of 300 PM Friday...flattening middle level ridge will be located just
off the coast on Monday as will large surface high pressure. Both
progress ever so slightly east heading into Tuesday while deep
occluded system slides east north of the Great Lakes. A weak dipping
in the southern branch of the jet will start to spread cyclonic middle
level into the Carolinas on Wednesday which may help lead to the
formation of a weak Piedmont trough. This will also give a slight
southward push to the cold front trailing from the aforementioned
storm system well to our north...with this boundary likely coming
through the area late Thursday or Thursday night. The unimpressive
moisture flux ahead of this boundary does not Bode well for much in
the way of rain chances with its passage. The current slight chance
probability of precipitation seem just fine and will remain as-is. Despite the weak moisture
the upper system may be a bit stronger than previously thought as
implied by a higher quantitative precipitation forecast now seen in the GFS. Plenty of time to see
if this trend holds and there is a need for higher rain chances.
Temperatures will run above climatology with most days featuring middle to
upper 70s for highs. Cooler air should be filtering in behind the
front for Halloween.
Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
as of 18z...VFR this taf valid period. Wind speeds this afternoon
will be light and directions difficult to ascertain...thus vrb05kt
is indicated in tafs. Extensive high clouds will thin out this
evening/overnight as a trough passes. Winds will be mostly calm this
evening and overnight as high pressure remains entrenched over the
terminals. The airmass appears too dry at this time to support fog overnight
despite excellent radiational cooling conditions. After sunrise
light winds continue with scattered high clouds.
near term /through tonight/...
as of 2 PM Friday...Ridge of high pressure will prevail across the
local waters as an area of low pressure in the vicinity the Bahamas
moves off to the northeast. Light onshore flow from a weak sea
breeze this afternoon will become light and variable this evening
then northerly again tonight.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
as of 300 PM Friday...high pressure to our west will maintain a
dry northwesterly flow across the Carolinas through the period.
With only a small 9-second southeasterly swell plus small
northwesterly wind waves away from shore...seas should average 1-2
feet through the period. A weak seabreeze is expected to develop
both Saturday and Sunday afternoons...especially south of Cape
Fear. Changes from the previous forecast were generally minor.
Long term /Monday through Tuesday/...
as of 300 PM Friday...light onshore flow on Monday with center of high
pressure right along the immediate coast. The eastward progression
of the center of the high will lead to a gradual veering. A
southerly flow should become established by late in the day if not
by Monday night. Southwesterly flow will last for the remainder of
the period as the high shows only a slow eastward progression off
the coast. As the wind speed remains capped at 10 knots through the
period and in the absence of any swell energy seas will remain at 2
feet or less.