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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
336 am CDT Friday Apr 25 2014

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 334 am CDT Friday Apr 25 2014

Main concern is severe weather Mode and extent across central and
eastern Kansas this weekend. The anticipated upper trough and
eventual weather maker for the Central Plains is still over the
eastern Pacific early this morning and should move onshore late
today. This will be preceded by downstream ridging aloft which
will translate east from The Rockies across the plains. The
developing Lee side surface trough and resultant southerly flow
across the area will portend to a warmer afternoon today with
warmest maximums across central Kansas. Elevated low and middle-level
warm advection and modest moisture transport late tonight may
provide sufficient lift and instability for convection across
southeast Kansas toward dawn Saturday morning. The nose of the
veering low level jet should shift the better coverage east into
western Missouri later Saturday morning. Otherwise warming aloft
should effectively cap chances for surface based convection across
much of the area until late in the day. The combination of strong
diurnal heating and convergence along the surface dry-line should
promote at least isolated deep convection across west-central
Kansas toward 00z Saturday evening. The strong deep layer shear
and instability would favor super-cell storms...however the
tornado risk is conditional on the quality of the low level and
near surface moisture return...which may be delayed until later in
the evening or overnight. Even so...the risk for very large hail
and damaging winds could still result in a higher end severe risk
Saturday evening. Stronger forcing for ascent will arrive late
Saturday night as the deepening upper trough begins to take on a
negative tilt as it moves out across the Central High plains. This
may allow for more numerous convection with the slightly backed
and somewhat more unidirectional middle-level flow resulting in a
transition to a quasi-linear convective Mode into early Sunday
morning across eastern Kansas. The effective dry-line will sweep
east across the forecast area on Sunday as the deep tropospheric
cyclone occludes to our north across Nebraska. This will shift the
risk for convection and severe weather into southeast Kansas and
perhaps just east of the area by early Sunday evening.


Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 334 am CDT Friday Apr 25 2014

The deep closed low looks to remain the dominant weather
feature across the Midwest through at least early next week.
This will result in a cooler and potentially unsettled
weather pattern with at least slight to modest chances for
showery/light precipitation.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1120 PM CDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Light and variable winds this evening will become south-southwest and
increase after 15z on Friday. Sustained speeds of 15 to 20 knots
are anticipated during the afternoon hours before diminishing
toward early evening. VFR is anticipated through the 24-hour period.


Fire weather...
issued at 334 am CDT Friday Apr 25 2014

Strong south to southwest winds are expected across the area to
the south of the developing deep cyclone over the weekend. This
will elevate the fire danger in the absence of convection into the
very high to perhaps extreme category across portions of central



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 81 57 87 64 / 0 10 10 50
Hutchinson 82 55 88 63 / 0 10 20 50
Newton 81 56 87 63 / 0 10 10 50
Eldorado 80 55 86 64 / 0 10 10 50
Winfield-kwld 81 57 87 64 / 0 10 10 50
Russell 82 53 89 61 / 0 10 20 40
Great Bend 82 54 89 61 / 0 10 20 40
Salina 82 55 88 64 / 0 10 20 50
McPherson 82 55 88 63 / 0 10 20 50
Coffeyville 79 55 85 66 / 0 20 20 50
Chanute 78 54 84 65 / 0 30 20 50
Iola 78 53 84 65 / 0 30 20 50
Parsons-kppf 79 55 84 66 / 0 30 20 50


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for ksz032-033-047-048-050-067-082.