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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
629 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 235 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Shortwave trough over Kansas/Oklahoma this afternoon will push east
of the area tonight...with any lingering light rain chance in the
far southeast Kansas counties early this evening. Large-scale subsidence
will set in behind the wave tonight into Friday. Skies will clear
from northwest to southeast this evening. Patchy early morning frost
will be possible in south central/southeast Kansas early Friday
morning...where light/variable winds are projected within surface
ridge axis. Friday will be sunny with warmer temperatures...and
gusty southerly winds developing in central Kansas by afternoon.

Shortwave trough just off of the Southern California coast this
afternoon...is prognosticated to move across the Southern Plains late
Saturday through Sunday. Southerly flow ahead of this system...will
draw marginal Gulf moisture/instability northward into
western/central Kansas on Saturday...with slight improvement in moisture
quality by Sunday. Maximum diurnal MLCAPES of ~1500 j/kg will
combine with weak shear to support scattered thunderstorms...with
relatively higher chances arriving Saturday night-Sunday. Above
seasonal average temperatures are expected Saturday...with highs
dropping back to near average Sunday with more clouds/precipitation.

Jmc

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 235 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Shortwave trough is prognosticated to push east away from the Southern
Plains Monday...with any lingering convection diminishing/ending
in the southeast. Upper ridging will shift east across the plains Monday
night into Tuesday with pleasant...dry weather ahead of an
upstream strong upper trough pushing into the western states. The
medium range models still show some disparity on how quickly this
upper trough moves into the north central Continental U.S. Middle-late
week...with the European model (ecmwf) continuing to be faster. A dryline will
become well established Wednesday from western Kansas to western
OK...with very strong/gusty southerly winds advecting upper 50s to
lower 60s dewpoints northward into Kansas. A strong
instability/shear setup should be in place Wednesday-Thursday
ahead of the dryline. Degree of capping may be a limiting factor
Wednesday with a fairly strong eml overspreading the region. The
European model (ecmwf) offers a better chance for isolated supercell-type storms to
initiate east of the dryline Wednesday...with a weak impulse
ejecting northeast across the Central High plains. On
Thursday...the Pacific front/dryline should shift into southeast
Kansas and possibly out of southeast Kansas if the faster European model (ecmwf) verifies.
So main storm chances...with perhaps more coverage...would be over
our southeast counties Thursday. Confidence is high that
temperatures will be above seasonal averages during this extended
period.

Jmc

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 629 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Patchy MVFR fog visibilities are expected overnight across portions of
south central and southeast Kansas. Partial clearing and light
winds in vicinity of a weak surface ridge is expected to promote
light radiational fog. Some return moisture in the developing
southerly flow toward dawn could also result in scattered-broken stratus
ceilings in the MVFR category as well...mainly just southwest of
the terminal forecast sites in central and south central Kansas.

Ked

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 235 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Lee trough development is expected Friday and Saturday...with gusty
southerly winds and warmer temperatures elevating the grassland fire
danger. Very high fire danger values are likely in portions of
central Kansas Friday and across much of the area on Saturday
afternoon. Saturday will feature the highest fire danger values with
winds gusting to 35 to 40 miles per hour. Minimum relative humidity is forecast
to be around 40% Saturday...and 40-45% Sunday.

Jmc

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 36 71 51 77 / 10 0 0 10
Hutchinson 35 71 51 77 / 0 0 0 20
Newton 35 70 50 76 / 10 0 0 10
Eldorado 35 70 50 76 / 10 0 0 10
Winfield-kwld 36 72 51 77 / 10 0 0 10
Russell 36 72 52 80 / 0 0 0 30
Great Bend 35 71 52 79 / 0 0 0 20
Salina 35 72 52 79 / 0 0 0 20
McPherson 34 70 51 77 / 0 0 0 20
Coffeyville 35 71 48 77 / 20 0 0 10
Chanute 35 71 47 77 / 20 0 0 10
Iola 34 71 48 76 / 10 0 0 10
Parsons-kppf 35 71 48 77 / 20 0 0 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$