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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1155 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

..updated for 06z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 243 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

Tonight-Monday night:
as surface ridge moves across the area tonight...anticipate good
radiational cooling with low temperatures near normals. Dry air
and good insolation will allow big temperature rebound on Monday...so
well above normal temperature streak will persist. Increasing low
level moisture and return flow will keep temperatures a bit warmer
Monday night.

Tuesday-Tuesday night:
moisture increases on Tuesday with small chances for precipitation
developing late in the afternoon near OK border. Modest cape would
allow for some thunderstorms...but with little surface
convergence and only modest upper lift...good chance that lift
will not be enough to break cap. Chances will expand a bit as low
level moisture spreads north Tuesday night...but pattern still does
not appear favorable for widespread precipitation.

Wednesday-Wednesday night:

Lack of surface convergence and fairly Stout cap should preclude
convection for most of daylight hours. Fairly big differences in
models on timing of cold front potentially reaching far northwest
sections late afternoon. Slower timing and dry daylight forecast
seems more probable...but consensus forced keeping a mention in
Russell County after 2100 UTC. Instability appears to be on the
order of 1000-2000 j/kilogram...with 30kts of bulk shear...so if
something develops...probability of severe is pretty good early
on. Chance for elevated showers/thunderstorms increases during
the night as the front pushes across the area. Biggest concern
this period is fire weather potential with increasing
mixing/surface gradient and warmer temperatures. Fire weather
section has more details. -Howerton

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 243 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

Uncertainty has increased this period with European model (ecmwf)/GFS diverging
even more over the past two runs with timing/depth of shortwave
moving through zonal flow. Where/how deep/what track this wave and
associated surface feature will take will significantly impact
precipitation chances and temperatures for much of this period. At
this point made only minor tweaks to initialization grids.
-Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1144 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

Light and variable winds will impact all terminals through 13-16 UTC
as surface high pressure moves directly overhead. A weak surface
trough will develop in the Lee of The Rockies bringing south
southwesterly winds to all terminals Monday morning. Broad
subsidence with clear skies will promote gusty winds beginning
late Monday morning/early afternoon. Krsl and ksln will likely see
the highest gusts as wind speeds around 850 mb will provide higher
momentum to mix down to the surface. Have left mentions of gusts
out of the kcnu terminal as higher 850 mb wind speeds will not
reach southeast Kansas until after sunset...limiting the potential
for gusty winds. Southerly winds will decrease Monday evening.

Jmr

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 243 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

Winds will diminish this evening...and will let red flag warning
expire on schedule. On Monday...winds will be lighter...with only very
high GFDI in central and parts of south central Kansas. Much lighter
winds on Tuesday will further reduce threat.

Another potential red flag day is in the making for Wednesday with 20+
knots sustained winds in the afternoon and dry low level airmass.
Forecast GFDI roughly north of a Hutchinson to Eureka line is
extreme. Will hold off on hoisting watch until event gets closer
given model uncertainty. -Howerton

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 41 73 47 81 / 10 0 0 10
Hutchinson 37 73 46 80 / 0 0 0 10
Newton 40 71 47 80 / 0 0 0 10
Eldorado 40 72 49 80 / 10 0 0 10
Winfield-kwld 41 75 48 81 / 10 0 0 20
Russell 40 78 46 80 / 0 0 0 10
Great Bend 40 77 46 80 / 0 0 0 10
Salina 38 75 45 79 / 0 0 0 10
McPherson 38 73 46 80 / 0 0 0 10
Coffeyville 38 70 48 77 / 10 0 0 10
Chanute 36 69 47 77 / 10 0 0 10
Iola 35 68 47 77 / 10 0 0 10
Parsons-kppf 36 69 47 77 / 10 0 0 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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