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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
556 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 337 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Current synoptic pattern/satellite water vapor imagery shows upper
level low spinning over the southwestern states with elongated
southwest flow regime stretching all the way into the Great Lakes
and northeastern states...meanwhile another upper level wave was
dropping southward across Canada early this morning towards the
northern states. This northern wave will enhance the upper level jet
winds with-in the upper level southwest flow regime and provide
strong upper dynamics and re-enforce the push of low-level cold air
across the Central Plains. This is a typical synoptic weather
pattern setup for icing events across the region.

Deep isentropic ascent/moisture transport will begin to increase
during the morning hours for areas along and just behind surface
front over central/south central Kansas...with widespread
showers/embedded thunderstorms expected. This activity will spread
into southeast Kansas for this afternoon and continue through the
late evening hours. Heavy rainfall and possible flooding is a
concern over far southeast Kansas due to unseasonably rich Gulf
moisture and training effects in play.

Now the other hazard of concern is freezing rain potential across
much of central/south central Kansas this colder sub-
freezing air undercuts this warmer moist air aloft. The surface cold
front will continue to surge southward today with surface
temperatures dropping below freezing across parts of central Kansas
this afternoon...and ice accumulation from freezing rain/mixed with
sleet at times should begin to impact locations mainly northwest of
a Salina to Hutchinson line late this afternoon. The transition
line will sink southward tonight with the activity gradually
winding down some...however another upper level wave will produce
a second round of freezing rain across mainly south central
Kansas for Friday/Friday night. Expected surface temperatures in
the 20s would create efficient ice accumulation and the gusty
north winds would only worsen the conditions. Expected ice
accumulations across the advisory/warning areas will range from
0.10 to 0.40 inches.

Headlines could be extended into Saturday as the system is still
over the area with lingering freezing rain/sleet still possible.

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 337 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Long range models show main upper level system from the southwestern
states finally lifting northeast across The Rockies and out into
the northern plains for Sunday into Monday. This will bring one last
remaining shot of winter weather to the region...with lighter precipitation
amounts expected across mainly central Kansas and rain across
southeast Kansas. Otherwise...dry weather expected thereafter with
cooler below normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday.



Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 554 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Messy aviation conditions are expected for the next 24 a
strong cold front continues to push south across the forecast area.
The cold front is currently located from kmhk to kewk to kp28. MVFR
to IFR conditions will continue ahead and behind this
abundant Gulf moisture will be located across the region. This Gulf
moisture will lead to widespread showers developing across most of
the region today...with MVFR ceilings/visibilities due to the heavier
downpours...especially over southern Kansas near the kict/khut and kcnu
taf sites. Could even see a few rumbles of will include
a mention of thunderstorms in the vicinity for the kict/kcnu taf sites. Behind front...IFR
conditions will be prevailent with patchy drizzle leading to MVFR

As the front pushes south...much colder air will drop temperatures below
freezing this evening across central and eventually south central
Kansas. This will lead to the moisture overunning the front turning into
freezing rain...intially across central Kansas. Could even see some
sleet mix in with the freezing rain near krsl/ksln as the depth of
the colder air increases late this evneing. Expect a changeover to
freezing rain near kict/khut by around 03-04z.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 59 28 28 27 / 100 100 80 60
Hutchinson 43 26 26 25 / 100 90 80 50
Newton 56 28 28 26 / 100 90 80 50
Eldorado 61 30 31 28 / 100 100 80 60
Winfield-kwld 62 32 32 29 / 100 100 90 70
Russell 35 22 25 22 / 80 60 40 30
Great Bend 36 23 25 22 / 90 70 60 30
Salina 40 25 26 25 / 100 90 70 30
McPherson 44 26 26 25 / 100 90 80 50
Coffeyville 64 36 37 34 / 100 100 90 70
Chanute 62 34 35 32 / 100 100 90 60
Iola 62 34 34 32 / 100 100 90 60
Parsons-kppf 63 35 36 34 / 100 100 90 70


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 am CST Saturday
for ksz049>053-067>070-082-083-091>093.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 am CST Saturday for

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 am CST
Saturday for ksz049-094-098.



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