Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
246 am CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 238 am CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

The heat and humidity combination will send the heat index values
soaring again today...with all areas likely reaching heat advisory
levels thus will include entire area for headlines. Otherwise still
expecting the surface front to migrate southward into Kansas for
tonight. Thunderstorms look to develop along the surface front
later this afternoon across northern Kansas and could migrate
southward into central/eastern Kansas tonight...however forcing
remains weak aloft and at the surface which should limit the
coverage further south. Wednesday's daytime highs will be lower
than Tuesday but still remain a little warmer than normal...we
could see a few airmass thunderstorms try and materialize later in
the day across mainly southern Kansas. Warm and humid conditions
will continue for Kansas on Thursday as upper level ridge expands
eastward across the Central Plains.

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 238 am CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

The heat will continue across the Heartland for Friday and into the
weekend...and heat headlines could come back into the picture given
the synoptic pattern. There are some model differences on frontal
positioning/timing for Sunday as GFS and European model (ecmwf) models show different
solutions. We will maintain some slight precipitation chances for
Sunday but model signal is not all that great along the surface
front. Meanwhile...if longer range models maintain current trends of
a deepening upper trough over the Great Lakes and upper ridge
axis retrograding into The Rockies. This would result in a
noticeable cool down for Kansas next week as surface high
pressure settles over the region...with cooler than normal
temperatures again.

Jakub

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1154 PM CDT Monday Jul 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area for the next 24
hours. The only concern will be southerly winds diminishing
overnight...then becoming gusty for the daytime hours Tuesday.

A cold frontal boundary will begin to venture into northern Kansas after
00z/Wed. Late afternoon/early evening heating and convergence along
this front may lead to isolated convection developing well to the
north of I-70 for the evening hours. Not sure how far south this
convective chance will get...unless a significant cold pool can help
push it south into central Kansas after 02z/Wed. So will leave a thunderstorms in the vicinity
mention out of the krsl/ksln taf sites for now...but could see it
added to later taf issuances...if convergence along the front
becomes more defined.

Frontal boundary will may push into central Kansas by around 06z/Wednesday and
further south late Tuesday night. But will not shift any winds...until
later forecasts. Will also keep any precipitation mention out of the tafs
further south across southern Kansas as well.

Ketcham

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 99 74 96 71 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 101 74 95 71 / 10 10 10 10
Newton 100 74 93 70 / 10 20 10 10
Eldorado 99 74 93 70 / 10 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 98 75 95 71 / 10 10 20 20
Russell 102 73 94 70 / 10 20 10 10
Great Bend 102 73 94 71 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 105 74 94 69 / 10 20 10 10
McPherson 103 74 94 70 / 10 20 10 10
Coffeyville 97 74 95 70 / 10 10 30 30
Chanute 97 74 93 69 / 10 20 20 20
Iola 97 74 92 68 / 10 20 20 20
Parsons-kppf 97 74 94 69 / 10 10 20 20

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
ksz032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations