Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
651 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 300 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Upper trough over the Lower Plains will begin shifting slowly
eastward to the Mississippi Valley by tonight. A northwesterly
downslope wind will allow for drier low-level air and seasonal
temperatures today with mostly sunny skies. Upper ridging will build
across the central/Southern Plains Thursday into Friday...downstream
of an upper trough over the western states. The NAM remains the most
ambitious with the northward moisture transport and elevated
instability into our southwestern counties very late tonight into
Thursday...to the north of a Southern Plains developing warm front.
The rich 850 mb moisture has been shunted well south to southeast Texas
early this morning and has a long way to return. So not planning to go
bullish on precipitation chances this far out. Will continue with low
probabilities 20-40% in our southwestern counties Thursday-Thursday
night given the indicated isentropic ascent on all models and steep
middle-level lapse rates. A few of these storms could pose a hail
threat if the NAM were to prove correct.
The warm front will pass northward across our area Thursday night
into Friday with low level moisture/instability advection occurring.
With middle-level temperatures still relatively cool...there will be a
chance of showers/thunderstorms as the front moves through.
Jmc
Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 300 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
The upper ridge over the Central Plains is prognosticated to move east late
in the weekend into early next week...as the western states upper
trough advances very slowly eastward. A Lee low and dryline will be
situated mainly west of our forecast area over the High Plains
during the period. The Gulf will be open with gusty southerly winds
on a daily basis...typical for late may. Confidence is high in above
normal temperatures in this pattern. Small chances for thunderstorms
look reasonable this weekend into early next week...mainly for any
activity coming east off the High Plains at night or early morning.
Jmc
&&
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 650 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Only potential problem is over central Kansas where lower-deck wrap-around
associated with departing low pressure will spread occasional 2,500ft
ceilings across krsl & ksln this morning. At the rate the departing low
pressure is moving east toward the Great Lakes VFR ceilings should reside over
both terminals by 17z. Northwest winds ~13kts/15mph should be realized over
both terminals by 18z.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 78 54 74 58 / 0 10 20 30
Hutchinson 77 52 72 57 / 0 10 20 20
Newton 76 51 71 56 / 0 10 20 20
Eldorado 76 53 73 56 / 0 10 20 20
Winfield-kwld 79 56 74 58 / 0 10 30 30
Russell 75 50 72 56 / 0 10 20 20
Great Bend 77 51 71 56 / 0 10 20 30
Salina 74 50 73 56 / 0 10 10 20
McPherson 76 51 72 56 / 0 10 20 20
Coffeyville 76 55 75 57 / 0 10 20 20
Chanute 74 53 73 55 / 0 10 10 10
Iola 74 52 73 54 / 0 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 76 54 74 57 / 0 10 10 20
&&
Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
