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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
624 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 245 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Westward propagating outflow has allowed low level flow to remain
backed which may provide sufficient convergence for deep moist
convection this afternoon across much of central and portions of
south central Kansas as a shortwave trough moves eastward across the
region. Steep middle level lapse rates on the moist side of the boundary
may support large hail in addition to heavy rain with the strongest
updrafts. As you move further west...a more deeply mixed planetary boundary layer may
would support gusty winds with any storms that develop given tall
skinny cape profiles.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to spread slowly eastward across
Kansas and NE tonight and although the more robust low level moisture
transport/middle level warm air advection and low level jet convergence will remain north of
the forecast area...maintained higher probability of precipitation across much of central
Kansas where confidence in deep moist convection remains higher given
moderate instability coupled with 35 to 40 knots of 1-7km bulk shear.
Further south and east...increasing cinh may preclude more
widespread activity. Storms may linger through the day on Friday
across south central Kansas gradually working eastward into
southeast Kansas late in the afternoon and continuing into the evening
hours before moving east of the area. Limited insolation and a
subtle frontal passage will keep highs just below climate normals with most
locations reaching the middle 80s. With weaker cinh/shear the threat
for severe weather appears low at this time although some pockets
of heavy rain will remain possible.

A dry Post-frontal regime is anticipated on Saturday-Sunday behind
the departing upper trough as a ridge of high pressure builds over
the area supporting highs in the middle and upper 80s on Saturday. By
Sunday...return flow is prognosticated to develop supporting highs in
the upper 80s/near 90.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 245 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

A persistence type forecast will prevail through the entire
period as an elongated middle-level ridge remains parked across the
southern/Central Plains to the Great Lakes during the period. This
will result in dry weather conditions and seasonably mild
temperatures with highs in the low 90s and lows in the upper 60s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 624 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Thunderstorms will be the main threat throughout the next 24
hours. The front is slow to make its way through the area...but
energy associated with the upper wave will move across causing
thunderstorms tonight...during the overnight hours and throughout
Friday as a more potent wave moves through. Winds will generally
be southerly...switching from southeast to southwest during the
period...and eventually at krsl by the end of the forecast...the
actual wind shift from the front will move through. Think there
will be a first round of convection this evening...with some
scattered remnant...activity over southern Kansas. The main
activity will be during the early morning Friday and throughout
the day.

Billings Wright

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 71 85 65 87 / 30 30 10 10
Hutchinson 69 85 63 87 / 40 20 10 0
Newton 71 85 65 86 / 40 30 10 0
Eldorado 70 86 65 85 / 30 30 20 10
Winfield-kwld 71 86 66 88 / 20 30 20 10
Russell 66 88 61 89 / 70 20 10 0
Great Bend 66 88 61 89 / 60 20 10 0
Salina 70 87 62 87 / 60 20 10 0
McPherson 69 85 63 86 / 50 20 10 0
Coffeyville 70 87 66 88 / 10 20 40 10
Chanute 68 86 65 84 / 20 30 30 10
Iola 68 85 65 84 / 20 30 30 10
Parsons-kppf 69 86 65 87 / 10 20 30 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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