Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
553 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Synopsis...
issued at 355 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

Scattered thunderstorms that have been occurring from northeast Colorado to
central & eastern Nebraska have been occurring along a slow southeast-moving
cold front curving from the eastern Dakotas to the Colorado/nm border. The
driving mechanism has been a broad middle-level trough extending from the
western Dakotas to extreme northeast nm. This pattern is producing yet
another very warm night across the weather forecast office Wichita premises where south 15
to 25 miles per hour winds have held temperatures to the lower 80s in all areas.

&&

Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 355 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

Today:
the large middle-upper high covering the Gulf Coast region that has been a
topic the past 3 nights is behaving as expected...spreading slowly west
across the lower MS valley. This would force the broad middle-level trough
situated over the Western Plains NE across Nebraska where it'll shear
quickly today. The result: more dry weather for the neighborhood today.

Tonight:
the focus shifts to thunderstorm potential. Persistent surface troffing
along the Front Range will continue inducing fairly rich moisture to
migrate NE across western & central Kansas but middle-level dynamics are a bit
feeble & with warm middle levels...thunderstorm potential would be limited
with any chances confined to central Kansas.

Friday & Friday night:
after another hot & breezy day a few thunderstorms may venture into the
neighborhood from western Kansas late tonight as a more robust middle-level
shortwave quickly strengthens over the Nebraska Panhandle & northeast
Colorado but with the massive middle-upper high continuing to spread/retrograde
toward the Southern Plains the shortwave would be forced NE toward the
Nebraska/South Dakota border. As such the better chances of thunderstorms would
occur across the western half of Kansas. Have assigned 20-30% probability of precipitation to areas
primarily along & west of I-135.

Sat & Sat night:
with the afore-mentioned intense middle-level shortwave being "forced" to
mvoe due north over the Dakotas on Sat hot & dry weather will again grip
all areas on Sat. Thunderstorm potential should begin to increase Sat
night as intense cyclogenesis ensues over the Montana/ND border. A middle-level
shortwave will scoot due east around the base of cyclone toward...then
across...the Colorado/Kansas border. This would force a cold front east-southeast across the
Colorado/Kansas border late Sat night. Thunderstorms developing over the Western
Plains would surge east/NE toward...then across...central & south-central
Kansas late Sat night & early Sun morning.

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 355 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

While thunderstorms are certainly anticipated for sun & Sun night the
better chances are still expected to occur from Monday night through Tuesday
night when the strongest/most intense middle-upper wave surges east across
Kansas & Nebraska.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 548 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

Brunt of convection early this morning should remain across
eastern Nebraska...with activity much more isolated to widely
separated in north central Kansas. Otherwise...Lee trough will yield
breezy southerly flow again today with gusts of 25-30 knots.
Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop this evening/overnight
near/east of Lee trough axis...with northeastward movement expected.
At this time...most susceptible taf sites appear to be rsl and sln where a
thunderstorms in the vicinity mention will be included. Otherwise...VFR to prevail outside
of any storms.

Jmc

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 98 77 97 75 / 0 10 10 10
Hutchinson 98 76 99 75 / 10 20 10 20
Newton 97 76 97 75 / 10 10 10 10
Eldorado 98 77 98 75 / 0 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 98 77 97 76 / 0 0 10 10
Russell 97 74 97 74 / 20 20 10 30
Great Bend 97 74 97 74 / 20 20 10 20
Salina 98 77 99 75 / 10 20 10 20
McPherson 98 76 98 75 / 10 20 10 20
Coffeyville 99 76 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 98 76 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 97 76 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 98 76 97 74 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations