Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1200 PM CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

..updated for 18z aviation discussion...

issued at 255 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

Water vapor imagery shows a circulation approaching the central
rockies with a much more potent shortwave lifting over the
northeast Seaboard. At the surface...Lee troughing extends from
western ND down into the OK Panhandle with high pressure centered
over the Ohio Valley.


Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 255 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

The upper impulse approaching The Rockies is expected to move out
across Nebraska/northern Kansas. As this occurs a surface trough will
slide through the forecast area which will gradually flip winds
around to the west and then northwest. While 850mb temperatures won't be as
extreme as they were Tuesday...increased downslope and mixing will
allow full heating potential which will result in much of the area
seeing highs in the 70s again. Much cooler air will spill south
behind the cold front tonight into Thursday. Even though highs will be
around 20 degrees cooler...they will still be a few degrees above
normal. By Friday our next system will be coming on shore over
Southern California/Baja California and will bring our next chances for precipitation this

Long term...(friday night through tuesday)
issued at 255 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

Precipitation will spread from SW to NE Friday night as isentropic lift and
low level warm advection increases ahead of the upper low over the
SW Continental U.S.. the European model (ecmwf) and GFS both agree on tracking additional
energy out of the northern rockies and tracking it across the
Central Plains for Sat. This will allow precipitation to linger over the
area Sat into Sun morning. Latest model runs did warm up the lower
layers compared to the earlier runs which should lead to a bit
more rain then snow. Central Kansas still looks to have the best shot
to see some measurable snow which most of it occurring Sat night
into Sun morning when the much colder air spills south.

For the first time in a while highs on sun will be well below
normal with most locations not getting to the freezing mark. This
cooler air should remain into the start of the work week.



Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1159 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area for the first
18 hours as a surface trough moves across the area. This surface
trough will gradually shift the winds to the west and eventually northwest
as the evening progresses into the overnight. Could see some SW
wind gusts to 25kts ahead of this trough. Also could see some gusty
winds out of the northwest early on cooler air starts to
filter into the plains. This cooler air may also lead to some
strato-cumulus moving south across portions of central and southeast Kansas for Thursday
morning. Ceilings will generally be around 3500 feet above ground level...but could see
the ceilings as low as 3000 feet above ground level for ksln and kcnu.



Fire weather...
issued at 255 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

Grassland fire danger index will be in the very high category
today across the entire forecast area today.

Winds will gradually come around to the west and then northwest
over central Kansas this afternoon while they remain out of the south
for areas along and east of I-135. The strongest winds will be
over southeast Kansas where gusts in the 30-35 miles per hour range will be possible. Afternoon
rh's will range from between 20 and 25% over central Kansas to around
30% over southeast Kansas.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 74 39 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 72 38 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 72 39 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 73 40 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 76 40 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 72 35 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 73 37 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 72 35 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 72 38 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 74 41 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 73 40 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 71 40 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 74 41 48 25 / 0 0 0 0


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations