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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1246 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

..updated for 18z aviation discussion...

Update...
issued at 950 am CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Elevated convection continues to roll southeast across east-
central Kansas. Activity appears to have developed along an elevated
instability gradient in the progressive northwest flow aloft
regime. 12z Topeka sounding indicates around 2000 j/kg of elevated
cape from parcels lifted from 800-700mb...along with modest deep
layer shear. Consequently...small hail...gusty winds and locally
heavy rain are possible as this activity continues to roll
southeast into southeast Kansas. Even though activity should tend to
weaken and become less widespread with time...see no reason why it
won't hold together into far southeast Kansas. Additional convection
currently over southwest NE may also hold together and get into
central Kansas by afternoon...as it rolls southeast along elevated
instability gradient.

Adk

&&

Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 237 am CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Temperatures will be lower today as the surface front pushes south
of the area into Oklahoma but still should see humid conditions.
Thunderstorm chances continue to look rather low and may remain
south of Kansas along the frontal boundary. Otherwise...warm air
advection late tonight along 700mb temperature gradient looks to
spark off some thunderstorms...but that activity should remain north
of central Kansas. The upper level ridge will shift eastward on
Thursday and flatten out come Friday...with the heat building again
over Kansas. Heat indices could approach advisory criteria by Friday
afternoon for central/south central Kansas.

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 237 am CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Another hot and humid day expected for Saturday with a frontal
boundary pushing southward into Kansas on Sunday. We will maintain
low end thunderstorm chances for Sunday as precipitation signal
still looks weak. Meanwhile...confidence remains high that cooler
air will spread southward into Kansas for next week...as models show
upper level trough deepening and becomes entrenched over the Great
Lakes.

Jakub

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1246 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Two areas of thunderstorms affecting the region early this
afternoon. One exiting far southeast Kansas...another progressing
southeast over northern Kansas. Anticipating the latter activity to
possibly affect rsl-sln for a time this afternoon...but for now
only went thunderstorms in the vicinity at sln. Diurnal cooling in concert with moist low-
level upslope flow may result in MVFR visibilities later tonight through
early Thursday...with Stout/gusty southeast winds ramping up by
middle-morning Thursday...as low pressure strengthens across the
western High Plains.

Adk

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 95 70 96 75 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 94 70 97 75 / 10 10 10 10
Newton 93 69 95 74 / 30 10 10 10
Eldorado 93 69 93 73 / 40 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 95 71 95 75 / 10 10 10 10
Russell 93 70 98 74 / 20 10 10 10
Great Bend 93 70 98 74 / 20 10 10 10
Salina 94 68 98 75 / 40 10 10 10
McPherson 94 69 97 75 / 20 10 10 10
Coffeyville 94 70 93 71 / 30 10 10 10
Chanute 91 68 92 70 / 50 10 10 10
Iola 90 67 91 70 / 50 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 92 69 92 71 / 50 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.

&&

$$

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