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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1141 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014

..updated for 06z aviation discussion...

Synopsis...
issued at 353 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014

An upper level system is moving northeast into the Central Plains
this afternoon. Precipitation has been over Oklahoma and moving
northward into southern Kansas throughout the day. Snow and sleet
have been falling over extreme southern Kansas since about 2pm.
Temperatures have struggled to get above freezing and will keep snow a
bigger threat through the overnight hours.

Billings Wright

&&

Update...
issued at 841 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014

Light snow showers have lifted north of the Wichita area while
lower levels of the atmosphere remain saturated. Areas of freezing
drizzle are expected to expand across the area while little
additional snowfall is expected...freezing drizzle will result in
slick spots...especially on elevated and untreated surfaces. For
locations north and west of the Kansas Turnpike or along a line
from near near Stafford to Salina...moderate snow will develop
over the next several hours with 2-4 inch accumulations likely
across much of the area. This was handled well in the previous
forecast with minimal changes expected at this time. Light
freezing drizzle will slowly expand north and east across much of
central Kansas after midnight.

&&

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 353 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014

The biggest threat/concern remains the wintry weather tonight
through Thursday morning. The forecast has moved slightly
cooler...making snow accumulation a bigger concern across the
area. As mentioned in the synopsis...precipitation including
freezing rain/sleet and snow has developed and pushed through the
bottom two rows of counties along the Kansas/Oklahoma border as of
3pm. This will continue to spread northward...and with
temperatures barely reaching freezing...snow will be the primary
precipitation type over central and portions of south central Kansas. The
main area for a wintry mix will be the bottom two rows of
counties. Expect the wintry mix to cease by evening becoming all
snow. During the overnight hours...feel cloud ice will be lost and
freezing drizzle will be more of a concern. By morning main
concern will be light snow or freezing drizzle.

Forecast snow totals are between 1 and 3 inches across central
Kansas with the higher amounts over eastern sections into
northeast Kansas. Some isolated areas may see up to 2 to 5 inches
of snow. Freezing drizzle and some light ice accumulations may be
possible over extreme southeast Kansas by morning.

Regardless of wintry precipitation type...roadways could become
slick and hazardous and have extended the Winter Weather Advisory
to include the remainder of the area.

Temperatures remain cool...but increasing slightly with skies beginning
to clear by Saturday. Highs will be in the 30s tomorrow...and in
the 40s for Friday and Saturday.

Billings Wright

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 353 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014

While a couple of upper waves traverse the area...the next one to
bring a chance for precipitation will be Sunday night through Tuesday.
The next front will move through on Tuesday...but at this time
temperatures look to be warm enough that the precipitation will remain liquid.
Highs will be in the 40s and low 50s by Monday and cooling
slightly for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Billings Wright

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1135 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014

Light to moderate snow will drive ceilings and visibilities into
the IFR/LIFR through the early morning hours over central and
portions of south central Kansas. After the snow
diminishes...areas of freezing drizzle and fog will result in
continued IFR/LIFR through 15-17z before conditions begin to
improve from west to east. MVFR ceilings may be short-lived,
especially across southeast Kansas where they may linger through
the afternoon hours. Areas of fog may return Thursday night
across much of the area...with the highest probabilities across
southeast Kansas.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 31 38 31 40 / 80 30 10 10
Hutchinson 28 35 28 39 / 90 30 10 10
Newton 28 36 29 38 / 80 40 10 10
Eldorado 30 38 31 39 / 80 30 10 10
Winfield-kwld 32 39 32 40 / 70 30 10 10
Russell 25 34 25 39 / 80 30 10 10
Great Bend 27 34 26 40 / 90 30 10 10
Salina 28 35 28 38 / 90 40 10 10
McPherson 28 35 28 38 / 90 40 10 10
Coffeyville 33 41 34 41 / 80 30 20 10
Chanute 31 39 32 38 / 90 40 10 10
Iola 31 38 31 38 / 90 40 10 10
Parsons-kppf 32 40 33 40 / 80 30 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Thursday for ksz032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

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