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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
700 am CDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 249 am CDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015

Low clouds will develop and expand early this morning as warm
front/Richer Gulf moisture moves northward...along with some
elevated showers and storms for southeast Kansas. Could also see
some patchy fog with the increasing low level moisture. Another very
warm day will be on tap across Kansas along with gusty south winds.
Meanwhile...current water vapor satellite imagery shows a healthy
upper level wave over Idaho/Montana. This upper wave will race
eastward across the northern plains for today into tonight...thus
forcing a cold front southward across the Central Plains.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern Nebraska later
this afternoon then zipper southwest along the front into
northern/western Kansas. The storms should quickly form into a line
along the surface cold front...with the line of storms affecting
mainly northeast and central Kansas tonight. The activity will
spread eastward overnight with a few strong to severe storms
possible...however the better shear aloft is lagging behind a bit.

The models show the surface front stalling out across southeast
Kansas or northeast Oklahoma on Thursday...with even Richer Gulf
moisture piling up along and ahead of the front. A second upper
level wave will move eastward across The Rockies for
Thursday/Thursday night...which should set the stage for another
round of active weather Thursday afternoon/night. The Thursday setup
will have much stronger shear aloft and better instability than
Wednesday. This will increase the severity potential of the storms
along the front...which could affect southeast Kansas.
Otherwise...cooler air and gusty north winds will overspread Kansas
on Friday in the wake of thursday's upper level system.

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 249 am CDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015

A warming trend will be in store for Kansas this weekend and early
next the upper level pattern transitions to a southwest
flow regime and brings warmer low level air into the Central Plains.
Could see some slight chances of showers/thunderstorms for Sunday
night and Monday across far southeast Kansas...but the better
chances look to hold off until the next front arrives possibly by
Tuesday if the latest long range models maintain.



Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 659 am CDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015

A rather complicated taf forecast this moisture rich
Gulf air streams north out of the Southern Plains. This increased
moisture may lead to some MVFR/IFR ceilings across portions of southern Kansas
later this morning between 14-18z. So will include this mention in
the kict/kcnu tafs. Latest hi-res models still hinting at this low
cloud chance...but a little behind schedule looking at the latest infrared
satellite image. This increased moisture may also lead to MVFR visibilities
for the kcnu/kict taf sites...but do not think this fog chance will
hang around long as increased surface mixing will mix out the fog.

Expect VFR conditions for the rest of the daytime hours...before
attention shifts to central Kansas as a cold front is expected to push
into central Kansas from the northwest after 02z/Thu. This frontal boundary
may lead to the development of some rain showers/thunderstorms and rain for will
keep the thunderstorms in the vicinity mention in. Not as confident in thunderstorms and rain development near low level moisture will be will keep krsl dry
for now.

Expect the thunderstorms and rain development over NE Kansas to develop into a complex of
storms overnight...which may move into the southeast Kansas by Thursday am.



Fire weather...
issued at 249 am CDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015

The combination of relatively dry air and gusty south winds today
will result in extreme and very high grassland fire danger levels
this afternoon. See the latest red flag warning for more details
on the high risk outdoor recommended for the entire area
today. Periods of very high fire danger will continue across the
region for Thursday through the upcoming weekend.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 85 56 71 45 / 10 30 20 30
Hutchinson 86 53 69 43 / 10 40 10 20
Newton 85 56 69 43 / 10 40 20 30
Eldorado 83 58 71 45 / 10 40 30 40
Winfield-kwld 83 59 73 47 / 10 20 30 40
Russell 88 46 67 38 / 20 60 10 30
Great Bend 87 48 68 39 / 20 60 10 20
Salina 87 51 67 40 / 10 70 10 20
McPherson 86 53 68 42 / 10 50 10 20
Coffeyville 79 63 76 49 / 20 20 50 70
Chanute 79 62 72 47 / 10 40 50 60
Iola 79 62 70 46 / 10 60 50 50
Parsons-kppf 79 63 74 48 / 10 20 50 70


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for ksz032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091-092.



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