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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
834 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Update...
issued at 834 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Radar and surface reports showed some light rain/sprinkles
were reaching ground in southeast Kansas at mid-evening. This
area of precipitation should continue moving east-northeast and will
be very light and little more than a trace event. While the
spirit of the going forecast is on track for the incoming
winter event...the latest short term guidance including the
00z NAM would suggest onset will be delayed until after
midnight. Therefore have adjusted probability of precipitation down this evening
through midnight...then ramped up later in the night. Still
looks like a mixed phase in the first few hours along the
Highway 54 corridor then transitioning south/colder to
changeover to snow early Wednesday morning. The going snow
accums look good with little if any changes anticipated for
now.

Ked

&&

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 258 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Forecast concerns focus around winter weather chances tonight-
Wednesday evening.

Tonight-wednesday: a deep elongated upper trough currently
approaching from the western Continental U.S. Will induce a very strong upper
jet from middle- America into the northeast states overnight.
Strengthening 800-600mb frontogenesis in response to increased
lift underneath the right entrance region of this upper jet should
allow precipitation to continue breaking out this evening and
especially overnight from the southwest. Latest guidance suggests
this area of frontogenesis and associated precipitation will set
up generally along/north of Highway 54/400 overnight...then
gradually shift south across the region Wednesday. Model thermal
profiles suggest mostly snow...although a wintry mix of
rain...sleet and freezing rain is possible generally along and
south of Highway 54/400 after midnight into early Wednesday
morning...changing to snow thereafter. Ice accumulations should
remain fairly light. For snow accumulations...overall expecting
1-2 inches...with localized amounts around 3 inches over central
Kansas...and also over far southern/southeast Kansas. Even though
this could be a fairly marginal event...decided to go with a
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight into Wednesday
evening for all areas except counties north of I-70...and also
portions of east-central and southeast Kansas. In addition to the
wintry precipitation...strong north winds and falling temperatures
are expected overnight- Wednesday...as an Arctic front blasts
south across the region.

Adk

Wednesday afternoon-Thu: the main area of frontogenesis will gradually
shift to the south and east for the morning hours on Wednesday with
clearing expected on the backside of this system. This fresh snow
cover and continued cold advection will put a damper on temperatures for
Wednesday.

Actually expect warmer temperatures to return by Thursday afternoon...
especially across central Kansas...as downslope conditions develop
along the High Plains. This will lead to maximum temperatures rebounding
nicely in central Kansas. Temperatures in southern Kansas may be a bit
tricky...given the fresh snow cover....which may keep temperatures down
quite a bit.

Ketcham

Long term...(friday through tuesday)
issued at 258 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Medium range models keep the ridging over The Rockies into the
weekend. This will lead to a warming trend into the
weekend...towards more seasonal type temperatures. Possibly see temperatures
climb above normal by the end of the weekend. This will result in
a welcome change compared to the last week.

Not alot of weather makers expected in this northwest flow pattern...as
moisture will be limited for any weak impulse to work with. So
expect dry weather with lots of sunshine through the weekend...into
the beginning of next week.

Ketcham

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 546 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

An approaching upper trough and strengthening upper jet will
result in development of wintry precipitation across the area tonight
into midday on Wednesday. While mainly snow on Wednesday...a
transition from rain to sleet/freezing rain is expected across
southern Kansas in the predawn hours of Wednesday morning.
High confidence exists for MVFR ceilings and visibilities in the wintry
precipitation...with a period of IFR visibilities in snow on Wednesday
morning across south central Kansas.

Ked



&&

Fire weather...
issued at 258 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

A strong cold front pushed most of the forecast area today. Gusty
north-northwest winds will diminish some overnight. Much colder air will be
in place on Wednesday which will keep rh's high as a chance of snow moves
across the area early on Wednesday.

Northwest flow and dry conditions are expected into the
weekend...which will allow cured grasses to dry out. So expect a
continued moderate to high grassland fire danger.

Ketcham

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 19 28 13 39 / 70 70 10 0
Hutchinson 17 29 11 40 / 70 70 10 0
Newton 17 27 12 38 / 70 70 10 0
Eldorado 19 27 13 37 / 70 70 10 0
Winfield-kwld 20 26 13 37 / 60 70 30 0
Russell 15 29 5 42 / 50 50 0 0
Great Bend 16 28 4 41 / 70 70 10 0
Salina 17 31 10 41 / 60 60 10 0
McPherson 17 29 11 40 / 70 70 10 0
Coffeyville 23 26 13 35 / 60 70 60 0
Chanute 20 26 12 35 / 60 70 20 0
Iola 19 26 12 34 / 60 70 20 0
Parsons-kppf 21 25 12 35 / 60 70 40 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
Wednesday for ksz047-048-050>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
Wednesday night for ksz094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

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