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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1226 PM CDT Friday Jul 11 2014

..updated for 18z aviation discussion...

Synopsis...
issued at 307 am CDT Friday Jul 11 2014

During the night a weak surface trough curved from the Nebraska
Panhandle to central nm...resulting in a light southeast flow across the Kansas
neighborhood. A small area of stratus developed from south-central
Nebraska almost to the south-central Kansas/north-central OK border. Mostly
clear skies had enabled temperatures to settle into the lower 70s.

&&

Update...
issued at 950 am CDT Friday Jul 11 2014

Very isolated middle level altocumulus castellanus/sprinkles continue to pester
portions of southeast Kansas this morning. Weak moisture transport and 310k
isentropic lift that led to this middle level cloud deck continues to
wane...with the isolated shower/sprinkles coming to an end as well.
The rest of the day will see warmer temperatures as surface winds shift
around to the S-SW. This will lead to temperatures climbing back to
seasonal normals this afternoon. Maximum temperatures look right on track...so
will only make some minor changes the grids/zones and remove
sprinkle mention for southeast Kansas.

Ketcham

&&

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 307 am CDT Friday Jul 11 2014

Typical Summer weather returns to the nighborhood today as a surface
low develops along the Colorado/Kansas border...thereby enabling lower-deck flow
to become due south & slightly increase. On Sat a postively-tilted middle
level trough that should sweep from Saskatchewan to western Ontario with
a "lead" middle-level shortwave curving from Wisconsin to SW Nebraska will
push a cold front southeast toward the Nebraska/Kansas border Friday night. With the
"lead" shortwave shearing as it approaches the Great Lakes the front
should stall near the Nebraska/Kansas border. This would keep thunderstorms
north of kict country over Nebraska until Sat night but this would turn up
the furnace across kict country with highs in middle-upper 90s.

Sat night-Sun:
a 2nd & slightly stronger middle-level shortwave is expected to venture southeast
across Nebraska Sat afternoon & night. The character may be strong
enough to kick the cold front southeast toward & perhaps across central Kansas on
sun. As such thunderstorm chances would very slowly increase in a northwest-southeast
manner across central Kansas but the feeble middle-upper support dictates only
20-30% assignment across central Kansas late Sat night & sun.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 307 am CDT Friday Jul 11 2014

The intense cyclone positioned over Hudson Bay will move east/southeast toward
the Ontario/Quebec border & extend SW across the middle-MS valley Monday
night. This would drive a strong cold front southeast across Kansas & vicinity on
Monday with the front likely making it to the Red River Monday night & then
to S Texas on Tuesday. This would translate into very nice weather for region
with highs in the upper 70s Tuesday & Wednesday with lows in the upper 50s Tuesday
night & Wednesday night. With weak high pressure settling S/southeast into Kansas any
chances for thunderstorms would shift S over the Southern Plains Monday
night.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1226 PM CDT Friday Jul 11 2014

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. The only concern
will be gusty afternoon winds. Expect the breezy conditions to
diminish after sunset. Gusty winds will again be concern on
Sat...after 14z.

Ketcham

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 94 71 95 73 / 10 10 0 10
Hutchinson 95 72 95 74 / 10 10 0 20
Newton 94 71 94 73 / 10 10 0 10
Eldorado 93 70 94 71 / 10 10 0 10
Winfield-kwld 94 70 96 72 / 10 10 0 10
Russell 97 71 95 71 / 10 10 0 30
Great Bend 95 70 94 72 / 10 10 0 30
Salina 98 74 96 72 / 10 0 0 30
McPherson 95 71 95 73 / 10 10 0 20
Coffeyville 93 70 98 71 / 10 10 0 10
Chanute 93 71 96 71 / 10 10 0 10
Iola 93 71 96 71 / 10 10 0 10
Parsons-kppf 93 71 97 72 / 10 10 0 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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