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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
637 am CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 317 am CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

The subtropical ridge continues to meander over the Southern Plains
states with weak westerly flow on the northern periphery across the
Central Plains. This has allowed a subtle shortwave trough to move
eastward out of The Rockies bringing an area of showers and thunderstorms
to western Kansas overnight. Some of this activity may linger
across portions of central Kansas through the early morning hours
before diminishing.

Another afternoon with oppressive heat indices is anticipated across
the central and Southern Plains states today...although a cold front
is expected to usher in much cooler air through next week.

A shortwave trough over Saskatchewan is prognosticated to dig southeast
across the upper Mississippi Valley today before arriving over the
Great Lakes area on Sunday. This will drive a cold front south
across the area tonight through early Sunday. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and
immediately behind the front...however a strong cap will preclude
more widespread activity. This was handled well in the previous
forecast with only minor adjustments planned at this time. Dry and
unseasonably cool air will overspread the region on Monday with
highs 5-10 degrees below normal.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 317 am CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

A long wave trough is prognosticated to remain anchored across much of
the eastern Continental U.S. Through the entire period with north-northwest
middle/upper flow expected across the central Continental U.S.. this will result
in a continuation of below normal temperatures and modest chances
for deep moist convection late Tuesday possibly lasting into the end
of the week as the middle/upper trough retrogrades toward the middle
Mississippi Valley area.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 636 am CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Surface trough extending from southeast Nebraska to west central
Kansas...will remain nearly stationary today. Winds will be
light/variable in the vicinity of this trough...and southerly to the
south of the boundary. Southwesterly winds will gust to 25 knots for
this afternoon south of this trough. A cold front will push south
into northern Kansas late this evening. This could lead to an
isolated-widely scattered thunderstorm chance in central Kansas by this
evening. Not sure how far south this thunderstorms and rain chance will get...so will not
include this in the kict and kcnu tafs just yet. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail with some middle-level clouds.

Ketcham

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 104 75 92 66 / 10 20 10 0
Hutchinson 105 74 90 65 / 10 20 10 0
Newton 104 75 90 65 / 10 20 10 0
Eldorado 101 75 91 64 / 10 20 10 0
Winfield-kwld 101 76 93 66 / 10 20 20 10
Russell 103 71 89 66 / 20 20 0 0
Great Bend 102 72 89 65 / 20 20 10 0
Salina 105 73 90 64 / 20 20 10 0
McPherson 104 74 90 64 / 20 20 10 0
Coffeyville 98 75 93 65 / 10 20 20 0
Chanute 97 75 92 64 / 10 20 20 0
Iola 98 75 91 64 / 10 20 10 0
Parsons-kppf 98 75 93 65 / 10 20 20 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ksz032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

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