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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
322 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

Synopsis...
issued at 322 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

An upper level disturbance is sitting over the Central Plains and
is aiding the development of convection across the area during
the day today. Thunderstorms have tracked across central and
northern Kansas throughout much of the day. Temperatures are near
normal with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Winds are southerly and
breezy.

Billings Wright

&&

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 322 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

The upper disturbance atop of US now...will struggle to move
anywhere before a more potent wave approaches from the west
tonight. As this happens...the more potent wave will slow it's
forward progression. As this happens the period for showers and
thunderstorms will persist from tonight through Wednesday and
possibly some Wednesday night. No major front will move through to
be a focus...so the main forcing will be upper level forcing which
could limit to some extent the coverage. The higher resolution
NAM keeps the coverage limited except a period of time late
tonight through middle morning Wednesday. Outside of this time period
there is a low confidence on the extent of the coverage. While
modest instability exists...think strong to severe convection is
not likely late tonight and Wednesday. Things will dry out
Wednesday night to Thursday as the upper wave sits over Kansas.
With the current forecast feel chances for precipitation on Thursday and
Friday remain low. Daytime temperatures will be near normal with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Billings Wright

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 322 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

The more potent upper wave eventually gets cut off from the
northerly stream. This disturbance then retrogrades from the
western Midwest back toward Kansas as Saturday approaches. How
far this disturbance moves west is the current question. The last
few NAM periods suggest it moving much further west across central
Kansas...but the GFS and to some extent the European model (ecmwf) are further east
with how far it retrogrades...which would keep the main
disturbance over far eastern Kansas and Missouri. This is
important for precipitation potential...but for now with the
further east guidance have kept the weekend dry.

The next precipitation chances will exist late Monday into Tuesday as
another wave approaches from the west. Confidence is low on the
potential precipitation for the region from this feature. Will
want to watch.

Billings Wright

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1229 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

Main aviation concern will be shower and storm chances through
much of the taf period.

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave tracking over eastern
Nebraska. A broad area of isentropic lift along the 310k surface
remains over northern Kansas and will help to keep some isolated-scattered shower
and storm activity today. Severe storms are not expected. There
maybe an increase in convective coverage after 06z as a middle/upper
trough moves into the area. This will result in moisture transport
increasing in the 850mb layer. At this point confidence in
coverage is not high enough to run with a prevailing group and for
now will just use a thunderstorms in the vicinity/vcsh tonight. Cloud heights and
visibilities are expected to remain above IFR levels and likely
above MVFR levels through this taf period.

Lawson



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 59 80 61 83 / 40 30 20 10
Hutchinson 59 81 59 83 / 50 40 20 10
Newton 57 77 59 82 / 50 40 20 10
Eldorado 57 78 60 82 / 40 40 20 10
Winfield-kwld 58 79 60 83 / 30 30 20 10
Russell 61 83 60 83 / 50 20 20 10
Great Bend 60 82 59 83 / 50 20 20 10
Salina 59 81 60 83 / 60 40 20 10
McPherson 59 80 59 83 / 60 40 20 10
Coffeyville 56 77 59 81 / 20 20 20 10
Chanute 55 77 59 81 / 20 20 20 10
Iola 55 76 58 81 / 20 20 20 10
Parsons-kppf 55 77 58 81 / 20 20 20 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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