Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
952 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Update...
issued at 951 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Middle level moisture transport continues to increase across western Kansas at
this time...for areas just to the west of the forecast area. Still
not alot of focus as middle level lift is lacking...with warm middle level
temperatures keeping any convection from forming. Some question on whether
this moisture transport will shift east at all overnight...thus
keeping convective chances at a minimum or possibly not at all
across the forecast area.

Have cut back on probability of precipitation for areas along and east of Interstate 135 for
now...delaying the probability of precipitation until after midnight. Will leave some probability of precipitation
in for the early morning hours on sun for now...as still think an
isolated storm chance exists in central Kansas and possibly south
central Kansas.

Ketcham

&&

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Main challenge in short term is convective chances/trends tonight
into Sunday morning...and then rainfall amounts with heavy
rainfall potential Monday into Monday night. A very pleasant
Independence day is under way across the area. Modest boundary
layer moisture and diurnal heating has resulted in a couple areas
of cumulus where weak to modest instability is present. A rather
weak upper trough or shear axis will continue to move southeast
across the northern and Central Plains through early tonight. Modest
elevated moisture transport will develop within the low level jet
as it gradually veer out across central Kansas by early Sunday
morning. There is no general consensus in the various short term
models with regard to spatial or temporal trends with potential
convection overnight across the plains. Whether any late day
convection off to our northwest makes it into central Kansas or
not this evening...the aforementioned low level jet and moisture
transport with weak to little capping may allow for some nocturnal
convection overnight into Sunday morning. So will stay the course
with the modest chance probability of precipitation across much of the area. Otherwise a
windy and much warmer day is on tap for Sunday.

The main focus then shifts to Monday and Monday night as a
seasonally strong upper trough moves eastward across the northern
plains and Midwest...with the attendant surface cold front moving
across Kansas. As the previous forecaster alluded to...the rather
high precipitable water values and potential for a period of
training convection will likely lead to heavy rainfall. While
convection will persist into Tuesday...especially over southern
Kansas...will generally show a decrease in probability of precipitation from north to
south across the area.

Darmofal

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

There may be a brief lull in precipitation chances Tuesday night into
Wednesday...especially closer to the I-70 corridor. However the
retreating frontal boundary with periodic shortwaves in the weak
westerly flow aloft should give rise to renewed chances into
Wednesday night through Thursday night. The European model (ecmwf) is a bit more
aggressive with its upper ridging scenario by Friday night and
Saturday...though the overall medium range trends continue to
support diminishing precipitation chances and a return to the usual
Summer climatology heat.

Ked

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area tonight into
Sun morning. The only concern will be late tonight or early Sun
morning across central Kansas...as middle level moisture transport
increases. This increased moisture may lead to a few storms to
develop across central Kansas...but lots of uncertainty as only modest
moisture transport is expected...with hi-res short term models all
over the place on whether anything will occur.

Will go with a thunderstorms in the vicinity for krsl and ksln between 09-14z/sun...but
confidence isnt that high. Could even see a stray storm try to
develop over south central Kansas as well...but chances seem too low at
this time to include any mention in the kict/khut tafs.

Ketcham



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 71 94 74 88 / 30 30 10 60
Hutchinson 70 95 73 87 / 30 30 20 70
Newton 70 94 72 87 / 30 30 10 70
Eldorado 70 92 73 88 / 30 30 10 60
Winfield-kwld 70 93 74 89 / 30 40 10 50
Russell 70 97 72 82 / 20 20 40 70
Great Bend 69 96 72 83 / 20 20 30 70
Salina 70 96 73 85 / 30 30 20 70
McPherson 71 94 72 86 / 30 30 20 70
Coffeyville 69 90 73 88 / 30 40 10 40
Chanute 68 90 72 88 / 30 40 10 50
Iola 69 90 72 87 / 30 40 10 50
Parsons-kppf 69 90 73 88 / 30 40 10 50

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations