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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
653 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 324 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Below normal temperatures will continue through the middle of the
week...as the Great Lakes upper level trough remains in place with
a large ridge over The Rockies. This will lead to cooler air
continuing to drop south out of southern Canada for the foreseeable
future.

Expecting shower and embedded thunderstorms to develop over
southwestern Kansas later today...as monsoonal flow over the SW US
begins to push further east into the Southern Plains. Expecting this
area of showers to gradually spread eastward into central and south
central Kansas very late this afternoon or early this evening as
moisture transport and middle level lift begins to increase.

Expect this area of showers and embedded storms to increase in
coverage for late this evening through Wednesday morning...as
850-700h moisture transport/isentropic lift increases. Where the
heaviest band of showers will setup...will be more of a mesoscale
detail...but heaviest axis of quantitative precipitation forecast will probably be from kddc southeast
towards koun....where best 850-700h fn-convergence will be
oriented. Elevated instability looks limited as this moisture
increases...so thinking more of a showery precipitation with rumbles of
thunder tonight into Wednesday.

In our forecast area...expecting the heaviest quantitative precipitation forecast amounts for areas
SW of kict...with some areas over Harper and Sumner counties seeing
some rather healthy quantitative precipitation forecast amounts by Wednesday morning. Could see some
pockets of heavier rain...but expecting more of a sustained rainfall
for the overnight hours...which could lead to some areas over south
central Kansas...picking 1 to 2 inches by Wednesday afternoon. Will see lessor
quantitative precipitation forecast amounts the further northeast you go....but most areas will see
some rainfall by Wednesday afternoon.

Do not foresee any flooding issues with this rainfall event...as
most of the flash flood guidance across south central Kansas is almost 4
inches in a 3 hour period. But certainly a good soaking.

The precipitation area will taper off from north to south over south
central Kansas for Wednesday afternoon/night...as best moisture
transport shifts south/southeast of the forecast area...which will
push most of the precipitation activity into Oklahoma by Wednesday night.

Surface high pressure will be over the area on Thursday with
very pleasant weather expected...light winds and below normal
temperatures.

Ketcham

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 324 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

The main story heading into the weekend will be the continuation of
slightly below normal temperatures for Kansas as the upper level
ridge axis stays positioned over The Rockies...with northerly/
easterly winds at the surface keeping modified cooler air in place.

There is a small chance of diurnal precipitation activity for
Saturday given the cool temperatures aloft and a weakly capped atmosphere
in place...otherwise dry weather will prevail.

Ketcham

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 650 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

A few light showers or sprinkles were impacting portions of
northeast Kansas and this activity may briefly impact ksln-kcnu
with ceilings around 7000 feet before diminishing by late morning.
Better chances for rain may arrive across portions of south
central Kansas after 05-07z as a shortwave trough approaches from
the central rockies. Light easterly winds around 10 miles per hour or less
can be expected through the period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 84 65 72 64 / 10 60 70 30
Hutchinson 85 64 73 63 / 20 60 70 20
Newton 84 63 75 63 / 20 50 60 20
Eldorado 85 63 74 63 / 20 50 60 20
Winfield-kwld 84 64 71 65 / 10 60 80 30
Russell 84 63 76 63 / 20 60 60 10
Great Bend 83 62 72 62 / 20 80 80 10
Salina 86 64 79 64 / 30 40 50 10
McPherson 85 63 75 63 / 20 50 60 10
Coffeyville 86 63 76 65 / 10 40 50 30
Chanute 84 63 78 64 / 10 30 40 20
Iola 84 62 78 64 / 20 30 40 20
Parsons-kppf 85 62 77 64 / 10 40 50 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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