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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1133 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015

..updated for 18z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 327 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015

Main forecast challenge is precipitation amounts and type tonight
through early Sunday morning. Satellite water vapor loop
showed a fairly impressive fetch of subtropical moisture
with an eastern Pacific upper trough which will impact the
area this weekend. Low level moisture flux will lag the
middle and high level moisture plume...though fairly decent
isentropic lift should result in scattered light precipitation
development over central Kansas by later this evening.
Persistent isentropic lift through a deeper layer later
tonight into Saturday and increasing low level moisture
will result in more numerous to perhaps widespread precipitation
at times across the area. While some mixed phase precipitation/snow
is possible at onset tonight over central Kansas...model
trends in the soundings continue to support mainly a chilly
light to moderate rainfall event for most of the area on
Saturday. A northern stream upper trough will drop southeast
across the northern plains and Midwest Saturday night into
Sunday...driving a strong polar front south across the area.
A changeover to snow is expected across portions of central
and far eastern Kansas before the better moisture and lift
is shunted east of the area by midday Sunday. While a period
of snow is expected...it still appears residence time and
rates will only support an inch or less of accumulation...
mainly to the north and northeast of greater Wichita. Brisk
and occasionally strong north winds and much colder air will
follow for much of Sunday with falling temperatures into the
afternoon.

Darmofal

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 327 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015

Little change to outer periods will be made with this
forecast cycle. Some moderation in temperature is expected
by Tuesday...before another shot of cold air overspreads
the area by mid-week. Except for Tuesday...temperatures
look to average a bit below seasonal climatology next week with
chances for measurable precipitation low at this time.

Ked

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1130 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015

For ict-sln-hut-rsl-cnu...rain will be on the increase from west
to east overnight...persisting through Saturday...as a storm
system approaches the region. Rain may mix with snow at times for
rsl- sln overnight through middle-morning Saturday...but should
change over to all rain by middle-late morning Saturday. No
accumulations are expected due to marginal surface temperatures.
Ceilings will be mostly MVFR to low VFR in the rain.

Adk

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 48 34 42 32 / 0 70 80 80
Hutchinson 47 33 41 29 / 10 70 80 80
Newton 47 32 41 30 / 0 70 80 80
Eldorado 47 33 41 31 / 0 60 80 80
Winfield-kwld 48 35 43 33 / 0 60 80 80
Russell 47 32 40 26 / 10 70 60 70
Great Bend 47 32 40 27 / 10 70 70 70
Salina 48 33 40 28 / 0 70 80 80
McPherson 47 32 41 28 / 10 70 80 80
Coffeyville 48 34 44 34 / 0 30 80 80
Chanute 46 32 43 32 / 0 40 80 80
Iola 45 32 42 31 / 0 50 80 80
Parsons-kppf 48 33 43 33 / 0 40 80 80

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.

&&

$$

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