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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
255 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 218 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

A shortwave trough over the Central High plains is prognosticated to
translate eastward across the Central Plains through Wednesday.
Large-scale forcing for ascent will increase across the area ahead
of this trough this evening while low level moisture/transport 310-
315k isentropic upglide bring higher probabilities for deep moist
convection across the area tonight into early Wednesday. Precipitable waters
around 150+ percent of normal combined with MUCAPES in the 1000-2000
j/kg range and considerable warm cloud depths exceeding 4300m should
result in efficient rain production as well as the potential for a
few severe storms.

The effective front/outflow boundary is prognosticated to sink well south
of the area on Wednesday afternoon...however maintained some probability of precipitation across
mainly southeast Kansas during the afternoon/evening hours although higher
probabilities will remain south and east of the forecast area.
Trended maximum temperatures down on Wednesday with a seasonably cool Post-
frontal regime anticipated across the area.

Thu-Fri...rising heights/increasing thickness should result in
rising temperatures across the area on Thu-Fri. Maintained low probability of precipitation
Thursday night as a subtle shortwave trough moves over the northern
plains clipping a portion of the Central Plains states...however
confidence in widespread wetting rains remains low at this time.
Subtle shortwave troughs migrating along the periphery of the
subtropical ridge within the moist tropical plume could result in
another round of storms Friday night across the area and maintained low
probability of precipitation from the previous forecast.

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 218 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

A persistent middle/upper ridge is prognosticated to persist across the
southern Continental U.S. Through much of the period while building westward
over the southern rockies toward the end of the period. This will
result in a return to above normal temperatures across the area
through much of the period. As the ridge builds over the southern
High Plains/southern rockies late in the period...diurnal
thunderstorm activity may increase downstream across the Central
Plains although above normal temperatures appear likely through much
of the period.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1258 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

Primary attention-getter is that of isolated thunderstorms and rain slowly increasing late
this afternoon/early this evening. Through ~05/03z ceilings & visibilities to remain VFR
in nearly all areas with any MVFR visibilities to be confined to isolated
thunderstorms and rain. From 03-06z coverage should really increase as weak surface low
positioned from western Kansas to West Texas continues to advect increasing moisture
across central & SC Kansas. At this time greatest strong/severe thunderstorms and rain would occur
over western Kansas for most of the 04/18z taf cycle.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 69 91 74 94 / 70 20 10 10
Hutchinson 67 90 71 95 / 80 20 10 10
Newton 66 89 71 93 / 80 30 10 10
Eldorado 67 90 74 93 / 70 40 10 10
Winfield-kwld 70 93 73 94 / 70 20 10 10
Russell 66 87 68 95 / 80 20 10 10
Great Bend 67 88 71 96 / 60 20 10 10
Salina 67 86 72 94 / 90 30 10 10
McPherson 68 88 71 94 / 90 30 10 10
Coffeyville 69 90 73 93 / 70 60 20 10
Chanute 69 88 72 91 / 70 60 20 10
Iola 68 87 72 90 / 70 60 30 10
Parsons-kppf 71 88 75 92 / 70 60 20 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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