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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1051 PM CDT Monday Apr 20 2015

..updated for 06z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 325 PM CDT Monday Apr 20 2015

A dry Post-frontal regime was firmly entrenched across the central
and Southern Plains states in the wake of the slow moving storm
system. Low level moisture was shunted south of the lower
Mississippi Valley area well off the coast and will be slow to
return to the Great Plains.

A subtle pv anomaly moving southeast across the southern rockies in
northwest middle/upper flow may bring a few sprinkles to the area
tonight within a weak middle level warm air advection regime...however better chances
for measurable precipitation may remain south of the forecast area.

Maintained low probability of precipitation Tuesday afternoon mainly across southern Kansas where
weakly capped airmass is prognosticated. There may be a subtle cold front
providing a focus by afternoon where a few vigorous updrafts will be
possible. This activity may linger into the evening/overnight hours
along the frontal boundary as it sinks south across the forecast
area.

Wed-Thu...trended Wednesday PM probability of precipitation down as the focus is prognosticated to remain
south of the area across the Southern Plains along the front which
has trended further south away from the area. Maintained low probability of precipitation
into Thursday with strong middle level warm air advection prognosticated with rising
heights/increasing thickness as shortwave ridging moves over the
Central Plains.

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 325 PM CDT Monday Apr 20 2015

A more vigorous middle/upper trough is prognosticated to move east across
the southern rockies late Friday emerging over the Central Plains
states on Saturday. Maintained high probability of precipitation across much of the area
through early Sat. Middle/upper flow is prognosticated to transition to
northwest in the wake of this system and maintained low probability of precipitation
through early next week. Temperatures are expected to remain
seasonable through the period with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s
and lows in the upper 40s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1047 PM CDT Monday Apr 20 2015

West/southwest winds will increase somewhat by middle/late morning
Tuesday. Cumulus around 5000-7000 feet above ground level will likely develop
again Tuesday afternoon...due to daytime heating. May see a few
showers/thunderstorms across the region by Tuesday evening...as a
strong cold front approaches from the north. Unsure on coverage
due to meager instability...so left mention out of tafs for now.

Adk

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 43 72 47 64 / 10 20 30 20
Hutchinson 41 71 45 61 / 10 20 20 20
Newton 42 70 45 62 / 10 20 20 20
Eldorado 43 71 47 63 / 10 20 30 20
Winfield-kwld 45 73 50 66 / 10 20 30 30
Russell 39 71 42 61 / 10 10 10 10
Great Bend 39 72 43 61 / 10 10 10 20
Salina 39 70 42 61 / 10 10 10 10
McPherson 41 71 44 61 / 10 10 20 20
Coffeyville 44 70 49 65 / 10 20 30 30
Chanute 42 69 46 63 / 10 30 30 30
Iola 42 69 45 62 / 10 30 30 20
Parsons-kppf 43 70 48 64 / 10 20 30 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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