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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
532 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Synopsis...
issued at 304 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015

In the upper levels...water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy
is moving out of northeast Kansas and is approaching the middle
Mississippi Valley. Another impulse is quickly diving southeast
across the northern plains. At the surface...cold advection has
commenced over the plains. Tough to pick out where exactly the
cold front is located as there isn't much baroclinicity to key on.

&&

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 304 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015

Cold advection will continue this morning with a surge of low
clouds affecting at least the northeast portion of the forecast
area. Even though temperatures today will be much colder than the last
few days...they will still be several degrees above seasonal
averages. On Friday an upper low is expected to come on shore over
southern CA/baja. This will push the surface high east which will
start to setup moisture advection across the Southern Plains.

Light rain will commence from SW to northeast Friday night as
isentropic lift and low level Theta-E advection increases. At this
point fairly confident that the majority of the precipitation will
remain as liquid Friday night...with some light snow possibly mixing
in for locations generally north of Highway 400. Light precipitation is
expected to continue through the day Sat with the majority of it
still expected to be liquid due to warm advection processes
remaining. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) still agree on tracking
shortwave energy out of the northern rockies and across the
Central Plains Sat night. As this occurs Arctic air will start to
spill south across the area which will turn any precipitation over to all
snow. So while there maybe some light snow mixed in at times prior
to Sat night...feel that the majority of the accumulation that
occurs with this event will come Sat night into Sun morning when
the polar air surges south. The most likely locations to see some
accumulation looks to be north of Highway 400 and possibly into
the Flint Hills. The GFS would result in more snow compared to the
European model (ecmwf) as it digs the shortwave further south.

Any snow is expected to quickly come to an end by Sun afternoon
as Arctic air continues to push south. If the GFS would
verify...highs on sun would struggle to get out of the 20s...with
the European model (ecmwf) not quite as robust with the cold air. Given the track
record of the GFS with Arctic air...would not be shocked if it
turns out to be correct.

Long term...(monday through wednesday)
issued at 304 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015

Northwest flow looks to setup over the region behind the departing
wave. Confidence is high that below normal temperatures will remain in
place for Monday. The big question for next week will be how far
south the extremely cold polar air makes it. Confidence is very
high that this air will affect the northern plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley and could possibly spill this far south for Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

Lawson

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 524 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015

Low clouds in the MVFR category will continue to stream southward
across much of the area through the morning hours. The low clouds
should quickly scatter out from west to east in the afternoon.
Gusty northwest winds will prevail through the afternoon but will
diminish around sunset.

Jakub

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 50 24 46 33 / 0 0 10 60
Hutchinson 48 24 47 31 / 0 0 10 70
Newton 49 23 46 32 / 0 0 10 50
Eldorado 49 24 46 33 / 0 0 0 40
Winfield-kwld 52 24 47 34 / 0 0 0 50
Russell 48 22 47 31 / 0 0 10 70
Great Bend 50 24 47 31 / 0 0 10 70
Salina 48 22 46 33 / 0 0 10 60
McPherson 48 22 46 32 / 0 0 10 60
Coffeyville 51 24 46 33 / 0 0 0 30
Chanute 49 22 45 33 / 0 0 0 30
Iola 48 21 44 32 / 0 0 0 30
Parsons-kppf 49 22 46 32 / 0 0 0 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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