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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
256 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 252 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014

Overnight storms will once again linger into the morning
hours...especially across southern Kansas while drifting eastward
and diminishing by midday or earlier. A diffuse warm front is prognosticated to
lift northward across the area this afternoon and tonight and may
become a focus for renewed storm development during the afternoon
hours. Better chances for more widespread development may occur
tonight when a developing nocturnal low level jet transports moisture north
into central Kansas. Although deep layer shear is prognosticated to weaken
slightly when compared to yesterday...0-6km bulk shear around 35 knots
combined with MLCAPES greater than 3000 j/kg will support vigorous
updraft with any activity that develops during the afternoon hours
along the diffuse warm front or residual outflow boundaries.
Severe thunderstorms with large hail/damaging winds will continue
to be a threat into the evening hours before diminishing as the 700 mb
thermal ridge advects north and east over the Central Plains
during the early morning hours.

Wednesday-Thursday...a few storms may linger across central and
southeast Kansas very early on Wednesday before clearing from west
to east. Above normal temperatures will return with highs in the
low to middle 90s. Another day with above normal temperatures in the
middle and upper 90s is anticipated on Thursday before a cold front
arrives Thursday night bringing increasing chances for storms and
much cooler Canadian air south across the Central Plains.

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 252 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014

Unsettled weather is anticipated across the Central Plains
states late in the week and through the weekend as a cold front is
prognosticated to meander across the area as we remain situated on the
northwest periphery of the middle/upper ridge centered over the
southern rockies. Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected
through the period while temperatures remain seasonably cool with
highs in the 70s and 80s. Organized severe weather is not expected
at this time.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1125 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

In the near term...scattered thunderstorms should continue to
develop overnight across south central and southeast Kansas. Will
carry a tempo thunderstorms and rain at cnu terminal where coverage should be
greater...and a thunderstorms in the vicinity at ict. MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibilities possible in the
early am mainly in central Kansas with weak flow and low dewpoint
depressions. Additional storms could fire Tuesday afternoon/night
with residual front in area and plenty of moisture/instability.
Relatively higher probabilities at night expected when isentropic
lift should increase.

Jmc



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 89 71 94 74 / 40 40 10 10
Hutchinson 88 70 93 74 / 30 40 10 10
Newton 87 69 93 74 / 30 50 10 10
Eldorado 88 70 93 74 / 40 50 10 10
Winfield-kwld 91 71 94 75 / 60 30 10 10
Russell 87 68 97 74 / 20 20 10 10
Great Bend 86 68 95 73 / 20 20 10 10
Salina 89 70 96 76 / 20 50 10 10
McPherson 87 69 94 74 / 20 40 10 10
Coffeyville 88 71 93 75 / 60 30 10 10
Chanute 88 70 93 74 / 60 50 20 10
Iola 87 70 93 74 / 40 50 20 10
Parsons-kppf 89 71 93 75 / 60 40 20 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 11 am CDT this morning for ksz071-072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

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