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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
253 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Synopsis...
issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Currently have an upper trough extending from the western Great
Lakes and down into the Ozark region. Within this trough there are
a few impulses...one over the southern Great Lakes with another
piece of energy diving south across the middle Mississippi Valley. At
the surface...a cold front stretches from northeast MO down into
SW OK. Meanwhile...high pressure ridge extends from southern Minnesota
into central Kansas.

&&

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Storms are expected to develop by the evening hours across eastern
Oklahoma with the thinking that any activity will stay southeast
of the forecast area. The main change for tonight was to linger
low clouds across the eastern half of the forecast area
longer...with much of southeast Kansas staying socked-in through at least Sun
morning. Also went ahead and inserted a mention of fog with the
thinking that it will be most prevalent on the western edge of the
lower clouds...which looks to be over south central Kansas and the
Flint Hills. The upper impulse is expected to remain down across
east OK/west Arkansas for sun through Monday. Meanwhile...an upper trough
will slowly come on shore over the Pacific northwest. This will result in
strengthen Lee troughing and warming temperatures. The front that is down
south will wash out as return flow picks up.

A warming tend is expected to commence on sun and continue through
at least the first part of the work week. 850mb temperatures and
1000-850mb partial thicknesses support middle to possibly upper 90s
across at least the western portion of the forecast area by Monday.

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

The main theme through these extended periods will be for
continued above normal temperatures.

By Wednesday the upper trough will still be anchored over the northwest
Continental U.S. With broad upper ridging over the southeast Continental U.S.. this
pattern will continue to promote above normal temperatures across the
central and Southern Plains with 850mb temperatures supporting highs in
the middle to upper 90s. As the trough inches east...monsoonal
moisture will also work east and may start to affect parts of
western Kansas late in the week. For now will only mention small
precipitation chances over a few central Kansas counties starting Friday.

Lawson

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Low clouds have invaded all taf sites except for krsl. Ceilings are
varying between 1500 and 2500 which produces a few issues with VFR
flight plans. As the afternoon progresses...the low deck will lift
a bit and scatter out. However it will be short lived as we begin
to cool off I expect the low clouds to filter back int from an
east to west direction. Krsl will still remain virtually cloud
free. However...it looks like dense fog will be a possibility as
ceilings could drop at or below 2sm towards 9z. Clearing skies are forecast
after 14z Sunday.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 63 88 66 93 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 61 89 65 94 / 0 0 0 10
Newton 62 87 66 92 / 10 10 10 10
Eldorado 63 87 66 91 / 10 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 62 88 66 93 / 10 10 10 10
Russell 58 91 63 97 / 0 0 0 10
Great Bend 58 90 63 97 / 0 0 0 10
Salina 59 88 65 94 / 0 0 0 10
McPherson 60 88 65 94 / 0 0 0 10
Coffeyville 66 86 67 91 / 10 10 10 10
Chanute 66 86 67 90 / 10 10 10 10
Iola 66 85 67 90 / 10 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 66 86 67 91 / 10 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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