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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
642 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

expect temperatures to fall fairly quickly after sunset as winds
briefly decouple. Winds expected to increase later this evening in
advance of approaching front. Front is expected to move through
area during the day...resulting in gusty north winds in its wake.
This has prompted a Fire Weather Watch for parts of central/south
central Kansas for sun. Despite cold front passage...combo of mixing/
dry air and downslope component should allow for another mild day.

Sun night-Monday night:
as surface ridge moves across the area Sun night...anticipate
good radiational cooling with low temperature near normals. Dry
air and good insolation will keep temperatures well above normal
on Monday. Return flow and increasing low level moisture will result
in warmer minimums Monday night. Could see some clouds roll into far
southern sections towards daybreak.

Tuesday-Tuesday night:
moisture increases on Tuesday with small chances for precipitation
developing late in the afternoon near OK border. Modest cape would
allow for some thunderstorms...but little surface convergence and
modest upper lift...may not be enough to break cap. Chances will
expand a bit as low level moisture increase Tuesday night...but there
is no strong signal for widespread/significant precipitation at
this time. -Howerton

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Still a fair amount of uncertainty this period with European model (ecmwf)/GFS a bit
closer with details of split flow...but still enough differences in
surface pattern and moisture return to produce significant
differences in temperature/precipitation forecast. Consensus is to
push surface front into the area by Wednesday night...with cyclogenesis
on front in OK Thursday night. Where/how deep/what track will
significantly impact precipitation chances...especially across
northwest half of forecast area this period. Temperatures will
generally remain at or above normal throughout the period. -Howerton


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Primary aviation concern will be a cold front traversing central
and southeast Kansas Sunday morning. Winds will veer throughout
the taf forecast times winds will become breezy
impacting terminals from west to east overnight as the surface
pressure gradient increases. Behind the front...gusty northerly
winds will persist through much of the morning and afternoon hours
across all taf sites. MOS guidance has hinted towards the
potential for low ceilings in the vicinity of the front...however at
this time confidence is not high that these ceilings will develop.
Will continue to monitor trends along the cold front this
evening...depending on these trends the next taf update may
include a brief period of MVFR ceilings at terminals across south
central Kansas.



Fire weather...
issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Frontal passage on sun will result in gusty northwest winds and
good drying. With GFDI values at or above 50 over parts of
central/south central Kansas will hoist Fire Weather Watch for late
Sun morning-late Sun afternoon. Conditions will improve slightly
on Monday...but only due to lighter winds in the return flow. Warm
temperatures and chances of rain by middle-late week should reduce
fuel as Spring Greenup is starting. -Howerton


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 49 72 40 72 / 0 10 0 0
Hutchinson 49 71 36 73 / 0 10 0 0
Newton 49 70 38 71 / 10 10 0 0
Eldorado 48 71 38 70 / 0 20 0 0
Winfield-kwld 49 73 41 71 / 0 10 0 0
Russell 50 70 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 50 70 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 49 71 36 72 / 10 10 0 0
McPherson 48 70 37 72 / 0 10 0 0
Coffeyville 45 70 39 69 / 0 20 0 0
Chanute 44 70 38 68 / 10 20 0 0
Iola 43 70 38 68 / 10 20 0 0
Parsons-kppf 45 69 39 69 / 0 20 0 0


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
for ksz032-033-047>051-067-068-082-091.



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