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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1252 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014

..updated for 18z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 337 am CDT sun Apr 20 2014

Today-Mon:
weak middle-level low centered over northern nm continues to spread high
cloudiness from the Southern Plains to the upper MS valley. This
character will continue to move slowly east across the panhandles and
along the OK/Kansas border this afternoon & tonight. This would prompt a
NE-SW oriented weak cold front to venture southeast from western Nebraska that
should reach central Kansas very early Monday morning then southeast Kansas late
Monday afternoon. Although moisture is somewhat meager it should increase
later this afternoon & especially tonight & with the approaching cold
front showers & thunderstorms should increase over western Nebraska &
western Kansas & spread slowly east & southeast across the Kansas neighborhood later
this afternoon & tonight. Pattern not overly impressive so a minimal
severe thunderstorm threat exists although small hail is certainly
possible this afternoon & tonight. The slow trek east should result in
some much needed rainfall with widespread one third to one half inch
amounts likely by middle-day Monday. With an upper Deck Ridge amplifying as
it pushes east toward then across The Rockies tonight the middle-level
low should weaken then phase with a strengthening positively-tilted
middle-upper wave scooting southeast across the northern plains. The middle-upper
wave will surge southeast across the upper MS valley Monday morning which would
drive the cold front southeast out of southeast Kansas by Monday evening. As such
rain & thunderstorms are still scheduled to exit south East Kansas late
Monday afternoon.

Tuesday & Tuesday night:
nice weather awaits all areas as the afore-mentioned high-amplitude middle
to upper ridge pushes east across the central third of the country.

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 337 am CDT sun Apr 20 2014

Wednesday-Thu:
the severe thunderstorm potential remains high for these periods as an
intense(!) Upper-deck wave takes on a negative tilt as it surges east
over the Pacific northwest Tuesday night. This character should undergo rapid
cyclogenesis as it surges east over the Alberta/Montana border on Wednesday. This
would drive a much stronger cold front southeast across Nebraska & Kansas Wednesday &
Wednesday night. The severe thunderstorms would first erupt over western Kansas
Wednesday afternoon & venture east toward the central third of the state Wednesday
evening. The threat for very large hail is increasing for the western
corridor with the damaging winds becoming the major concern Wednesday night.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1243 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014

A weak frontal boundary will slide southeast across the forecast
area this evening and overnight. The approach of the front and the
influx of moisture from the south will pose a few aviation issues
at all taf sites. The most obvious will be a 180 degree swing in
winds to a northerly direction with frontal passage. In the mean
time...plenty of air mass showers will move across the area this
afternoon ahead of a decent upper system in far northwestern New
Mexico. This system along with the surface boundary will produce
enough convergence this evening and combine with some limited
instability to give all sites a chance for thunderstorms and lower
ceilings. It may take until frontal passage before the low
ceilings are scoured out.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 337 am CDT sun Apr 20 2014

With moisture increasing & south winds only reaching 15 to 20 miles per hour the
grassland fire danger would be minimal today. Showers & thunderstorms
will spread across the region tonight with nearly all of the activity
occurring along & east of I-135 on Monday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 76 57 76 48 / 40 50 40 10
Hutchinson 75 57 77 46 / 50 50 30 0
Newton 74 57 76 47 / 40 50 40 0
Eldorado 75 58 74 48 / 40 50 50 10
Winfield-kwld 76 58 74 49 / 50 50 50 10
Russell 76 56 77 43 / 40 50 20 0
Great Bend 74 55 78 43 / 40 50 20 0
Salina 79 58 76 46 / 40 50 30 0
McPherson 75 57 76 46 / 40 50 30 0
Coffeyville 79 60 74 51 / 30 70 60 20
Chanute 78 59 73 48 / 30 60 60 20
Iola 77 59 73 50 / 30 70 60 20
Parsons-kppf 78 60 74 48 / 30 60 60 20

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$