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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
252 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 249 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

A shortwave trough was digging across the Central Plains states
early this morning. A pronounced dry layer centered around h75 has
resulted in only a few sprinkles/flurries reaching the ground while
T/dew point spreads remained fairly large across the forecast area. Large-
scale forcing for subsidence is prognosticated to increase as we move
through the morning hours with clearing skies expected from west to
east during the afternoon hours. We may see a few morning
sprinkles...but the bigger concern may be gusty northwest winds
within a deeply mixed/subsident regime in the wake of the clipper-
like system. The primary change from the previous forecast was to
increase wind speeds with seasonably cool highs in the 40s/around 50.

A ridge of high pressure at the surface will nose into the Central
Plains states tonight resulting in light winds and below normal
temperatures. Lows tonight will range from the teens and low 20s
across central Kansas to the middle 20s along the Oklahoma state line.

Thanksgiving day-Saturday...rising heights/increasing thickness and
a return of low level southerly winds will result in rising
temperatures across the area on Thursday and especially Friday.
Seasonably mild highs around 50 are expected on Thanksgiving day
while some locations reach the middle 60s on Friday and Sat.

Long term...(sunday through tuesday)
issued at 249 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Another surge of Canadian air is anticipated on Sunday. This may
result in a wide range of temperatures across the forecast area
with highs ranging from the 30s/40s across central Kansas and the low
to middle 60s near the OK state line. Temperatures are expected to
rapidly modify by Tuesday as low level southerly flow returns to
the Central Plains. Dry weather is expected to prevail through the
period.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1101 PM CST Tuesday Nov 25 2014

Shortwave trough will continue sliding southeastward across the
northern/Central Plains overnight into early Wednesday. 500-300
layer q-vector convergence will spread across central/eastern Kansas
in the 06z-12z timeframe...allowing middle-level
moistening/saturation with fairly dry low-levels. This could
result in a few flurries/sprinkles. Not expecting visibility/ceilings to
drop below VFR if any light precipitation makes it to the ground
before evaporating. Southerly winds will shift to northwesterly
overnight behind the associated cold front. The strongest
northwesterly gusts of around 30-35 knots are prognosticated during
Wednesday from around 15z into the middle afternoon hours when
low-level lapse rates and mixing will be the strongest.

Jmc



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 48 24 48 34 / 10 0 0 0
Hutchinson 47 22 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 43 23 46 33 / 10 0 0 0
Eldorado 47 25 49 35 / 10 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 49 24 48 35 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 43 20 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 45 22 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 45 22 48 32 / 10 0 0 0
McPherson 44 22 47 32 / 10 0 0 0
Coffeyville 50 25 48 34 / 10 0 0 0
Chanute 47 23 46 31 / 10 0 0 0
Iola 45 23 45 30 / 10 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 49 22 47 31 / 10 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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