Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
254 PM CDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 252 PM CDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

Upper level wave via latest satellite water vapor imagery over South
Dakota will race southward tonight...with decent lift ahead of it
capable of producing some light precipitation in the form of a
rain/snow mixture across eastern Kansas. This wave will also a force
reinforcing shot of colder air southward into the region for
Friday...with below normal temperatures expected once again
especially if middle-level clouds filter out daytime heating effects.
It will be a cold start to the day on Saturday but a nice warming
trend will be in store for Saturday/Sunday. Another fleet-footed
upper wave will move across the region on Sunday with some sprinkles
or light rain possible across eastern Kansas.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 252 PM CDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

Long range models show split-level upper flow for early in the week
with a southern stream system tracking slowly eastward across the
Southern Plains. How far north the moisture makes it ahead of this
system for possible precipitation to reach Kansas on Tuesday will be
the main challenge...as GFS/European model (ecmwf) have different solutions on that
scenario. Otherwise both models agree that by Wednesday and Thursday
that the upper pattern will transition from a split-upper flow and
converge into a zonal upper level flow...with Richer Gulf moisture
streaming northward towards Kansas as a surface front will likely be
in the vicinity. A couple upper waves will interact with this
frontal boundary and moisture...thus setting the stage for better
thunderstorm chances this period.

Jakub

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1245 PM CDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

Quick moving high pressure will is moving overhead changing
light northerly winds to southerly. This will quickly change as
another cold front moves through the area tonight. This cold front
will enter the area around 4-6z changing winds back around to the
north and breezy. Ceilings behind the front may be MVFR with highs
between 1500-2500ft. Have left scattered mention at this time to
hint at the MVFR possibility. Winds will decrease and lower
ceilings are expected to lift by Friday morning.

Billings Wright

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 252 PM CDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

Fire weather concerns will remain low for the next couple days
with cooler temperatures on Friday...and winds remaining on the
lighter side through Saturday. Fire weather conditions will worsen
come Sunday across mainly central Kansas...as northerly winds pick
up behind a southward moving cold front and drier air spreads into
the area.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 34 54 38 69 / 10 10 10 0
Hutchinson 33 54 37 70 / 10 10 10 0
Newton 33 53 37 68 / 10 10 10 0
Eldorado 33 52 37 66 / 10 10 10 0
Winfield-kwld 35 53 38 69 / 10 0 10 0
Russell 31 58 37 74 / 10 10 10 0
Great Bend 32 59 38 74 / 10 10 10 0
Salina 31 54 36 68 / 30 10 10 0
McPherson 32 54 37 69 / 10 10 10 0
Coffeyville 32 52 35 65 / 10 10 10 0
Chanute 31 50 35 62 / 30 10 10 10
Iola 31 49 35 61 / 30 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 31 51 35 64 / 20 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations