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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1139 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

..updated for 06z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

A cold front was moving south across northern Kansas early this
afternoon and will arrive across south central Kansas this evening
and southern and southeast Kansas late tonight. Widely scattered
storms are expected along the front. A few of the storms may become
severe this evening with quarter sized hail and damaging winds. A
few hailers may linger across south central and southeast Kansas through
around midnight.

Sunday-Monday...maintained low probability of precipitation near the Oklahoma state line for
early Sunday...but better chances for precipitation are expected to
remain south of the area. The cold front will usher in more
seasonable air on Sunday with highs in the 70s and low 80s. The
middle/upper ridge over the Great Basin area is prognosticated to translate
eastward while a shortwave trough over California moves over the
central Great Basin. Another seasonable and dry day is expected on
Monday before rain chances increase as the shortwave trough lifts
over the central rockies and into the Central Plains late in the
period.

Tuesday...showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous as
large-scale forcing for ascent increases with the approaching
trough. This was handled well in the previous forecast with limited
insolation allowing highs to remain in the 70s/around 80.

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

An unsettled weather pattern is expected to remain through at
least late Thursday as a blocking ridge over the middle Atlantic area
allows the middle/upper trough to remain parked across the central
Continental U.S.. another more vigorous trough is prognosticated to move into The
Rockies toward the end of the period increasing chances for storms
but considerable differences in timing remain between the GFS and
European model (ecmwf).

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Thunderstorms are expected to diminish during the overnight
hours...with VFR conditions prevailing across the entire area. A
cold front will push southward across the region as surface high
builds in over the region for Sunday with north winds through the
day.

Jakub

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 65 80 55 77 / 30 10 0 0
Hutchinson 63 78 53 78 / 40 10 0 0
Newton 62 77 52 76 / 40 10 0 0
Eldorado 64 79 53 77 / 20 10 0 0
Winfield-kwld 68 82 54 79 / 10 20 0 0
Russell 57 78 52 77 / 10 0 0 10
Great Bend 59 77 53 77 / 30 0 10 10
Salina 60 79 52 77 / 30 0 0 10
McPherson 61 78 53 77 / 40 0 0 0
Coffeyville 68 81 53 78 / 10 20 0 0
Chanute 66 79 52 78 / 10 10 0 0
Iola 65 78 52 78 / 10 10 0 0
Parsons-kppf 67 81 52 77 / 10 20 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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