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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
640 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Synopsis...
issued at 243 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

All is quiet across the neighborhood this afternoon as broad but
weak high pressure covers the area. Temperatures are ~10f below
normal with scattered cumulus.

&&

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 243 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Tonight:
a potential for patchy fog still exists across southeast Kansas
toward day break where damp grounds & light wind would favor such
development. (As was the case early this morning.) The possible
inhibitor is that of middle level clouds (8,000-10,000ft altocu)
that'll spread southeast central Kansas this evening then across south-
central Kansas around mid-night. For consistency sake have kept
"patchy fog" applied to southeast Kansas.

Fri;
should it develop the patchy fog across southeast Kansas will
dissipate by 10 am. Warmer weather then returns as a weak
northeast to southwest surface trough moves southeast across central Kansas.
Any chance of thunderstorms would occur from Nebraska to southern
Wisconsin where a weak middle-level shortwave will move southeast across the
middle-upper MS valley in the afternoon.

This weekend:
nice weather continues as a large & fairly strong middle-upper deck
high pressure spreads slowly southeast from the northern & central
rockies across most of the Great Plains. Afternoon temperatures
from 85-90f are still anticipated Sat & sun afternoons.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 243 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Scattered thunderstorms are still scheduled to arrive central &
south central Kansas Tuesday night as a broad positively-tilted middle-level
trough moves southeast across the northern plains. The middle-level shortwave
will experience cyclogenesis as it encounters a weak middle-level
ridge extending from the Great Lakes to along the Ontario/Quebec
border Wednesday evening. With the sharpening middle-level trough extending
SW across Kansas thunderstorms should gradually increase in a northwest-southeast
manner Wednesday night & Thursday as the southeast-moving middle-level shortwave sweeps
a cold front southeast across Kansas. The thunderstorms may be quite strong
with both small hail & 40-50 miles per hour gusts.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 639 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

The only aviation concern over the next 24 hours is the potential
for fog late tonight through early Friday morning for primarily
cnu...where visibilities could go IFR or lower...due to light
winds...clear skies...diurnal cooling and moist low-levels. Could
see patchy MVFR-IFR visibilities as far northwest as ict-hut...although
lower moisture values and potential for scattered middle-level clouds may
hamper these lower visibilities from forming.

Adk

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 63 88 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 63 89 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 62 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 62 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 63 87 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 64 90 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 62 91 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 64 90 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 63 89 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 62 88 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 62 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 62 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 62 87 65 86 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.

&&

$$

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