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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
402 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Synopsis...
issued at 357 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in place across
the southern and Central Plains states with excessive heat and
humidity remaining entrenched across the area through early Sunday
before a cold front Ushers in unseasonably cool air for much of
next week.

&&

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 357 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

The 850 mb thermal ridge will remain anchored across the area today
supporting highs in the 97 to 104 degree range sending the heat
indices into the 102-107 degree range. A heat advisory will remain
in effect for today and likely be extended through Saturday across
the area. A rogue storm or two may develop along a sagging cold
front across mainly central Kansas. The NAM is more aggressive
driving this boundary south while the GFS and European model (ecmwf) keep it north
and west of the forecast area. Maintained low probability of precipitation through tonight
across central Kansas although the cap may preclude deep moist
convection.

Another hot day is anticipated on Saturday as the front remains
draped along the Nebraska/Kansas state line. Maintained low probability of precipitation
along this front as is moves south across the area Sat night through
early Sunday. Confidence in widespread wetting rains remains low as
a capping inversion is prognosticated to remain in place. Seasonable
temperatures are anticipated on Sunday but a return to unseasonably
cool air is expected on Monday.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 357 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Another stretch of unseasonably cool air will overspread the area
through next week with dry weather anticipated through at least
early Tuesday. The large-scale pattern will become amplified with a
large trough over the Great Lakes area and an upper level ridge over
the Great Basin area. Northwest middle/upper flow is prognosticated across the
Central Plains and maintained low probability of precipitation toward the middle of the week
as a shortwave trough is prognosticated to dig southeast across the central
rockies. Below normal temperatures are expected to persist through
at least the beginning of the weekend.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1126 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

Pressure gradient and a 50 knot south-southwesterly low-level jet
should keep boundary layer mixy overnight west of I-135. Gusts
around 25 knots appear likely there...while southeast Kansas will be decoupled.
Deep mixed layer (surface-700 mb) on Friday expected across most
of the forecast area...which will keep southwesterly winds gusting
to 30-34 knots in central/south central Kansas for much of the day. A few
middle-high level clouds are expected during the forecast
period...but otherwise VFR will prevail.

Jmc



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 101 77 102 76 / 10 10 10 20
Hutchinson 103 75 102 74 / 10 10 20 20
Newton 99 77 101 74 / 10 10 20 20
Eldorado 99 76 100 74 / 10 10 10 20
Winfield-kwld 99 76 101 74 / 0 0 10 10
Russell 104 73 100 73 / 10 20 20 20
Great Bend 104 74 101 74 / 10 20 20 20
Salina 104 75 102 74 / 10 10 20 20
McPherson 104 75 102 74 / 10 10 20 20
Coffeyville 99 74 99 74 / 10 0 10 10
Chanute 98 74 98 74 / 10 10 10 20
Iola 97 75 97 74 / 10 10 10 20
Parsons-kppf 98 74 99 74 / 10 0 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ksz032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

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