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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1237 PM CDT sun may 24 2015

Update...
issued at 1232 PM CDT sun may 24 2015

Plan is to extend the portion of the Flood Watch that expires at
18z through 00z.

Regional 88d's shows a very pronounced circulation lifting north
over south central OK. Even though the bulk of the decent moisture
transport will stay over far eastern OK/southeast Kansas late this
afternoon...there is a very slow moving area of moderate rain just
south of the Kansas/OK border that may affect at least Sumner and
Cowley counties over the next few hours. While heavy rainfall is
not expected...with grounds so saturated...it won't take much to
cause minor flooding.

Lawson

&&

Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 335 am CDT sun may 24 2015

Today-tonight:
challenging forecast with moist axis still pointing across
southeast Kansas and remnants of High Plains convection lurking in
western Kansas. Will continue most of Flash Flood Watch and fairly
high probability of precipitation across southeast Kansas...especially given approaching
shortwave/vorticity maximum...and small probability of precipitation for showers
potentially developing and/or moving in from the west in the upper
diffluence. With shortwave passage around 0000 UTC...expecting
precipitation to wane rapidly this evening. If skies substantially
clear...which is not completely certain...could see fog/dense fog
late tonight.

Monday-Monday night:
Monday continue to be the most challenging day of the forecast.
Considerable moisture will remain in place and models continue to
show instability soaring during the day. Weak shear/high cape
environment would favor localized heavy rain and microbursts if
any storms develop. Boundary layer cin suggest area may remain
capped...which is possible given weak forcing during the day.
Forcing will increase during the evening as next shortwave moves
through...with probability of precipitation increasing accordingly.

Tue:
with shortwave likely out of the area by 1200 UTC...not
anticipating any precipitation during the day. Did have to
dribble low probability of precipitation along NE border for consistency. -Howerton

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 335 am CDT sun may 24 2015

No big changes from 24 hours ago...with upper pattern still
favoring a reloading western trough with ripples embedded in the
west-southwest flow across the plains. With weak surface flow and
diffuse to non-existent surface boundary...convection timing/
location will be tough to pin down. Initialization grids still
have low probability of precipitation all periods...and given uncertainty in timing
ripples...will keep them going. Temperatures likely running a bit
conservative on maxes given optimistic precipitation forecast.
-Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1231 PM CDT sun may 24 2015

Aviation concerns will continue throughout the 24 hour forecast
period with low ceilings at least off and on as moist low level
boundary conditions persist. MVFR ceilings are present at most
terminals this afternoon at least off and on and expect this to
persist. An area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
is over northern Oklahoma and expect that to move slowly northward
and impact the region this afternoon/early evening. Lower ceilings
are expected during the overnight hours and could drop to IFR to
LIFR. Expecting to lift again during the morning hours back to
MVFR.

Billings Wright



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 70 59 83 62 / 30 30 20 30
Hutchinson 70 58 83 60 / 20 20 20 30
Newton 70 57 82 61 / 30 30 20 30
Eldorado 70 59 81 62 / 50 40 20 30
Winfield-kwld 70 58 82 62 / 50 40 20 30
Russell 71 56 78 57 / 20 20 20 40
Great Bend 71 56 79 58 / 20 20 20 30
Salina 72 58 81 60 / 20 20 20 40
McPherson 71 57 82 60 / 20 20 20 30
Coffeyville 72 59 81 65 / 90 80 30 30
Chanute 70 60 80 64 / 80 80 30 40
Iola 70 60 80 64 / 80 80 30 40
Parsons-kppf 71 60 81 64 / 90 80 30 40

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ksz053-069-
083-092-093.

Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ksz070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$

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