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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
303 am CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 251 am CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015

Today-tonight:
other than some middle clouds drifting across the area during the
day...relatively quiet weather expected with slight increase in
temperatures. Extreme eastern sections still look to be on the
edge of mesoscale convective system track tonight...and will dribble small probability of precipitation along the
eastern border.

Wednesday-Wednesday night:
forecast is considerably more messsy this morning...with models
much more divergent with both timing of upper ripples and location
of resultant surface boundaries. Far east may see lingering
precipitation from overnight mesoscale convective system across MO...and then increasing
chances with afternoon heating along thermal gradient/outflow. Not
sure that surface boundary dropping in from the north will have
enough convergence to overcome cap but strong surface heating will
make it a close call. Hedged a bit cooler on maxes in southeast
Kansas where potential for more clouds/wetter soils. Will broadly
dribble probability of precipitation east of I-35 for climatology/warm sector/mesoscale convective system
potential Wednesday night.

Thu:
wide range of surface boundary locations this period...ranging
from southern Nebraska to northern OK. So it is anyones guess
where surface boundary will be. That led to the shotgun approach
for probability of precipitation in the afternoon...with chances ramping up Thursday night.
Changes in subsequent forecasts are likely. Highs are equally
challenging...but hedged warmer at most locations...thinking
models are overdone with precipitation/clouds. -Howerton

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 251 am CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015

Overall theme is a slight breakdown of western ridge...which in
theory could/should allow mesoscale convective system to track a bit further west. This
also might allow surface boundary to push a bit further south as
well. Medium range models of course are struggling with the finer
details...which will have a big impact on temperature and
precipitation forecasts. That said...trended precipitation chances
closer to the slightly more conservative wpc guidance rather than
the initialization grids which Chase convective bullseyes. Trended
temperatures slightly warmer on those days/areas when precipitation
appears less likely. - Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1149 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015

Light and variable winds will shift to the southwest and increase
to 10-15 knots during the day on Tuesday. VFR will prevail across the
region.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 99 75 100 72 / 10 10 20 20
Hutchinson 99 74 99 69 / 10 10 10 20
Newton 98 74 99 70 / 10 10 10 20
Eldorado 96 74 100 71 / 10 10 20 20
Winfield-kwld 98 76 100 72 / 10 10 20 30
Russell 101 73 96 68 / 10 10 10 10
Great Bend 99 74 98 68 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 99 73 97 69 / 10 10 10 10
McPherson 99 73 98 69 / 10 10 10 10
Coffeyville 93 74 96 74 / 10 10 20 30
Chanute 94 73 96 72 / 10 10 20 30
Iola 94 73 95 72 / 10 10 20 30
Parsons-kppf 94 74 96 73 / 10 10 20 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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