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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1137 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2016

..updated for 06z aviation discussion...

Update...
issued at 923 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Updated to take out mention of fog for areas northwest of the Kansas
Turnpike.

Latest guidance continues the trend of keeping the low layers too
dry for fog early Sun morning for areas northwest of the Turnpike.
Best isentropic lift is occurring right now and shifts to southeast Kansas
after 09z...so precipitation also does not look good for south central
Kansas. While there may still be an outside shot at some very light
freezing drizzle over southeast Kansas after 09z...single digit dewpoints
are not helping with our confidence.

Lawson

&&

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 227 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2016

An upper trough over the northern rockies early this
afternoon...will traverse southeastward across the northern/Central
Plains tonight into Sunday. Ahead of this approaching trough...
moderate 850 mb moisture transport will focus northeastward into the
Flint Hills/southeastern Kansas late tonight into early Sunday
morning. Strong isentropic upglide and moistening is prognosticated on the
280-295k surfaces in that area of moisture transport. If saturation
can occur from the surface to 800 mb...some very light precipitation
may form ahead of the trough. Surface temperatures are projected
right near the critical freezing mark during the time period and
area of concern. With the moisture shallow and a complete lack of
cloud ice present...any precipitation would likely be in the form of
drizzle or light freezing drizzle for a few hours. Still some
concern that the lowest 2,000 feet above ground may not saturate
enough to support the very light precipitation...therefore no
Winter Weather Advisory is planned at this time but we will
continue to monitor trends. Slick spots will be possible
especially on bridges and overpasses if the light freezing drizzle
materializes. Areas of fog/freezing fog may form over
central/south central Kansas right along the surface trough
axis during the early morning hours...where winds will briefly
become light/variable....however it may end up being just stratus
off the deck.

Behind the departing trough...dry and milder weather is expected
Sunday with downslope northwesterly winds and decent insolation. A
trailing shortwave trough will push southeastward across the Central
Plains Sunday night which will amplify the upper trough over the
eastern Continental U.S. On Monday. A few sprinkles or flurries may occur on
Sunday night with this trough passage. Otherwise...northwesterly
flow aloft will persist Monday into Tuesday. Downslope flow and
1000-850 partial thicknesses support the going forecast of above
normal temperatures both days in our forecast area.

Jmc

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 227 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2016

The longwave upper trough from eastern Canada across the eastern
Continental U.S. Will push eastward middle-late week...leaving a flow pattern more
westerly off of the Pacific and out over the plains. This pattern
will support above normal temperatures for middle-late week...with
Thursday likely the warmest day. Do not see any signals for
precipitation...so will maintain the current dry and mild
forecast.

Jmc

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Main aviation concern remains low cloud development over mainly
southeast Kansas late tonight.

Isentropic lift already started to ramp up as an upper impulse
dives southeast over central Nebraska. So far the lift has
resulted in ceilings starting to lower over eastern OK and far southeast Kansas.
This trend should continue with MVFR ceilings expected by 09-10z for
areas generally along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. Confidence
is still not high enough at this point to insert IFR ceilings or
freezing drizzle due to the low layers still expected to remain
fairly dry. Lower clouds should push east by 14-15z.

Lawson

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 227 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Grassland fire danger is expected to remain mainly low to
moderate through Sunday. However a warming trend will commence
next week with unseasonably warm air and gusty surface winds
elevating the grassland fire danger...with Thursday looking to be
the greatest day of concern.

Jmc

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 31 55 33 61 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 29 55 32 61 / 10 10 10 10
Newton 28 53 33 59 / 10 10 10 10
Eldorado 30 54 33 60 / 20 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 33 56 34 63 / 20 10 10 10
Russell 27 54 31 59 / 10 0 10 10
Great Bend 28 54 31 60 / 10 0 10 10
Salina 27 54 32 59 / 10 10 10 10
McPherson 28 54 32 59 / 10 10 10 10
Coffeyville 33 54 33 62 / 20 30 10 10
Chanute 29 53 32 59 / 20 30 10 10
Iola 28 52 31 58 / 20 30 10 10
Parsons-kppf 31 53 33 60 / 20 30 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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