Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
530 PM CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 224 PM CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

Tonight-Thu:
precipitation should exit southeast Kansas by 0000 UTC with weakening
surface flow throughout the night. Appears that central Kansas will
drop into the single digits...and possibly even parts of south
central Kansas. Weak flow on Thursday will limit warmup as surface ridge
moves across the area. Return flow develops in the west...but
given cool start/limited mixing...not expecting too much of a
recovery even in the far west. Shortwave in northern stream may
spread a few clouds across the area...but moisture is quite
limited.

Thursday night-Fri:
return flow should moderate temperatures Thursday night with
temperatures finally warming above normal on Friday. While surface
winds will not be that strong...winds will have significant
downslope component so recovery should be optimized...especially
along/west of Highway 14.

Sat:
weak front will move into the area during the day..but not much
in the way of cold air advection. Dry airmass will preclude
precipitation...with downslope flow reaching even southeast
Kansas...where temperatures should finally reach the 50s. -Howerton

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 224 PM CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

Medium range models fairly similar in longwave pattern at start of
the period...with lingering and quasi-stationary midlevel toughingextending
into the 4 corners. By end of the period...ECMWF/GFS both lift
some/most of the this troughing in the Southern Plains. Details
and impact on surface flow are much more fuzzy...but combo of more
zonal flow and relatively dry airmass favor above to much above
temperatures. In fact 1200 UTC 925 millibar mixdown temperatures
are 69 European model (ecmwf)/71 GFS for ict. Have hedged a bit warmer than
intialization but below models at face value based on
inconsistencies in how southwest US energy will eject...potential
for significant high clouds and less than classic downslope
surface flow. Nevertheless would not be surprised to see one or
more days in the 70s this period. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 526 PM CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. The
light snow as all but ended across Kansas....with some lingering
flurries over extreme southeast Kansas. Otherwise the main concern will
be a gradual wind shift on Thursday....with winds returning to the south.

Ketcham

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 224 PM CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

Relatively light winds are expected tonight and tomorrow. On Friday
afternoon along and east of I-35...winds will likely increase to
near or just above normal. A dry front will move through on
Saturday. After Saturday...dry and above normal temperatures are
expected.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 12 38 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 8 39 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 12 37 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 11 37 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 12 39 23 51 / 10 0 0 0
Russell 5 42 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 7 42 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 8 41 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 8 39 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 14 33 21 48 / 10 0 0 0
Chanute 12 32 20 47 / 10 0 0 0
Iola 11 31 20 47 / 10 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 12 32 20 47 / 10 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations