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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
641 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 310 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014

Forecast challenges focus around precipitation chances through
Friday evening...and again Sunday evening through early next week.

Middle-afternoon analysis indicates a narrow corridor of
light/moderate rain with a few embedded thunderstorms extending
from western Oklahoma...northeast into south-central and northeast
Kansas. Thinking this activity will continue to slowly advance
east into the Flint Hills corridor this evening. Further west...a
surface trough extends from northwest Texas...northeast through
western OK and into south-central to central Kansas. Given large scale
ascent associated with potent shortwave trough approaching from
the west...thinking scattered thunderstorms will gradually form in
the vicinity of this surface trough this afternoon. Despite dense
cloud shield across central/south-central Kansas...thinking moderate-
strong instability will form over western portions of the area
where sun has been more prevalent. Coupled with weak/modest deep
layer shear...a few strong to marginally severe storms are
possible west of I-135 through this evening. Activity should tend
to expand in coverage as the evening progresses...shifting east
into eastern/southeast Kansas overnight...although strong/marginally
severe threat will wane by later this evening.

Shower/thunderstorm threat will shift into primarily southeast Kansas
for Friday...with a few strong storms possible during the
afternoon/evening. The front is expected to stall and nearly wash
out over southeast Kansas Saturday...as subtle shortwave energy
approaches from the west. Consequently...cannot rule out a few
afternoon/evening thunderstorms over southeast Kansas Saturday...but
activity should be fairly isolated.

Adk

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 310 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014

Attention then turns to severe weather potential Sunday late
afternoon-evening...as fast moving shortwave trough approaches
from the west...along with an associated cold front from the
northwest. GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in good agreement surrounding this
period...forecasting strong instability along with 40-50 kts of
deep layer shear. If this comes to fruition...severe thunderstorms
are a good bet over primarily the northern half of Kansas late Sunday
afternoon-evening. Will continue to monitor.

Medium range guidance stalls the front over southern Kansas early to
middle week...which may allow for continued modest thunderstorm
chances through Tuesday night/Wednesday.

Adk

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 641 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014

Thunderstorms have developed along a line from north of krsl to
the Oklahoma/Kansas state line. These storms have the ability to
have heavy downpours and gusty winds. These thunderstorms may
briefly decrease visibilities and ceilings to MVFR. This activity
is currently impacting krsl and will impact ksln/khut and kict
through the night and overnight hours as these storms move
eastward. Along the Flint Hills scattered to widespread showers
are present...and may impact kcnu...but think the better chances
for thunderstorms at kcnu will be much later...toward the morning
hours.

The chances for thunderstorms will persist through much of the
forecast as the upper level disturbance moves eastward with time.
Winds will be southerly to southeasterly overnight and again
south to southwesterly during the day Friday.

Billings Wright

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 69 87 66 91 / 60 50 30 10
Hutchinson 67 88 63 92 / 60 40 20 0
Newton 68 86 64 91 / 60 50 30 10
Eldorado 69 85 66 91 / 60 50 40 10
Winfield-kwld 70 87 67 91 / 60 50 40 10
Russell 65 87 62 90 / 60 30 10 0
Great Bend 65 87 63 91 / 60 30 10 0
Salina 68 87 65 91 / 60 40 20 10
McPherson 67 88 64 91 / 60 40 20 10
Coffeyville 71 86 68 91 / 60 60 50 20
Chanute 70 85 67 90 / 60 60 50 20
Iola 69 84 67 90 / 60 60 50 20
Parsons-kppf 70 85 67 90 / 60 60 50 20

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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