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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
600 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 307 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015

Tonight through wednesday:

A large storm system will continue to dig
into the southwestern states. Southerly low-level flow will advect
shallow Gulf moisture northward into the forecast area tonight into
Wednesday...with isentropic upglide and lowering condensation
pressure deficits on the 285-295k surfaces. This will likely result
in stratus development overnight into Wednesday...with spotty light
drizzle possible mainly along/east of the Kansas Turnpike. The
southerly wind will keep temperatures very mild overnight into
Wednesday. A cold front...associated with a northern branch
trough...will slide southward into central/southwest Kansas
Wednesday night. As the upper flow becomes diffluent ahead of the
approaching storm system...somewhat deeper lift is prognosticated mainly
over central/south central Kansas. Moisture will also increase with
a 40 knot southwesterly 850 mb jet providing moisture transport and
weak elevated instability. This will result in greater rain shower
chances...with isolated thunder possible.

Thursday through friday:

The polar front will sink southward through the forecast area
Thursday into Thursday night...while a middle-level impulse ejects out
of the southwestern states upper low across Kansas. Anomalously high
precipitable water will be drawn up ahead of the southward moving
front. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur
Thursday...with locally heavy rainfall likely in south
central/southeast Kansas. As the colder air filters southward behind the
front...rain is expected to gradually mix with then change to light
freezing rain and sleet from late Thursday into Friday...mainly
in central and south central Kansas...into the Flint Hills. The
mixed precipitation will be the result of surface temperatures
falling to freezing or several degrees below freezing...while a
layer of warmer air above zero celsius stays in place over the
area. Up to 0.1 to 0.2 inch of ice accumulation will be possible
in the advisory area...with little if any snowfall in central
Kansas. In areas where temperatures fall into the middle-upper
20s...this will cause problems on untreated roadways...trees and
powerlines. Areas that stay around the freezing mark may have some
ice accumulation in mainly trees...powerlines...and elevated
surfaces. With north winds of 15-25 miles per hour Thursday night through
Friday...some sporadic power outages are possible given the ice
accumulation verifies.

Expecting falling temperatures Thursday behind the cold front...with
no recovery in temperatures Friday from lows Thursday night.


Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 307 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015

The upper low over the Great Basin will gradually lift east-
northeastward across the Central Plains from this weekend into early
next week. A vorticity lobe will eject out of the upper
low...northeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma Saturday into Saturday
night. This could produce areas of light wintry mix precipitation.
Another stronger vorticity maximum will lift out across Kansas Sunday night
into Monday...with again a chance of light wintry mixed
precipitation. Confidence is high in below normal temperatures this
weekend...gradually modifying to closer to average Monday into



Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 552 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015

Aviation concerns will be lowering ceilings along with drizzle.

Strong return flow remains over the plains with some lower clouds
already developing and lifting north over OK and southern Kansas.
Right now all of these clouds are at VFR levels but are expected
to gradually lower as moisture continues to increase. Am expecting
MVFR levels in the next few hours along with some drizzle after
06z. Would not be shocked if we insert some IFR levels with the
next round of tafs but seeing how high ceilings are now does not
lead to high enough confidence yet. Should see some clearing after
around 18z for areas west of I-135 as some drier air moves in.



issued at 307 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015

The strong storm system will combine with anomalously high
precipitable water and some result in widespread
convective rainfall across south central and southeast Kansas...with
the brunt of the heaviest rainfall occurring Thursday into early
Friday. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are forecast
in those areas...which could result in significant rises in area
main-Stem rivers and possibly flooding problems. Continue to
monitor the latest the event a Flood Watch becomes



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 50 64 54 57 / 20 20 80 100
Hutchinson 49 63 50 51 / 20 20 80 100
Newton 50 62 51 53 / 20 20 80 100
Eldorado 50 64 55 58 / 20 30 70 100
Winfield-kwld 52 64 57 60 / 20 30 70 100
Russell 41 58 36 37 / 10 10 60 80
Great Bend 42 60 38 40 / 10 10 70 80
Salina 47 63 43 46 / 20 20 80 100
McPherson 48 62 49 50 / 20 20 80 100
Coffeyville 48 62 57 62 / 20 30 50 100
Chanute 47 61 56 60 / 20 30 50 100
Iola 47 60 56 60 / 20 30 50 100
Parsons-kppf 47 61 57 62 / 20 30 50 100


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 am CST Saturday
for ksz032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094.



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