Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1245 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Update...
issued at 1244 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Updated the forecast for current trends...especially regarding
precipitation potential. Have decreased chances for precipitation
during the afternoon hours. Did keep in a slight chance...with the
upper pv energy moving over the state and the moisture
abundance...cannot rule out a thunderstorm developing in the warm
air advection scheme...but confidence is not high on organized and
widespread convection through the remainder of the afternoon. Feel
better chances will be overnight...and will let afternoon
forecast touch on that.
Billings
&&
Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 330 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Tough forecast was made even more difficult due to the
unavailability of hrrr/00 UTC European model (ecmwf) and RUC after 0600 UTC due to
problems upstream. None of the remainder of available guidance
had much of a handle on ongoing convection. NAM was particularly
suspect...especially with initialization of 850mb moisture. Based
on 0000 UTC radiosonde observation and observational datasets...
see little reason why High Plains convection will not continue to
roll east during the day aided by warm air advection...influx of
moisture and shortwave. Effects on temperatures/winds during the
day will be difficult to pin down. Thinking that precipitation
will transition to eastern half by late afternoon...with lull in
the western half around sunset. See no reason why storms will not
develop over the High Plains again tonight and roll east.
Thursday remains problematic...as it is unclear how widespread convection
will be or low long it will linger. Large potential for error on
all facets of this forecast. Have leaned a bit towards the GFS
which was the least wrong guidance out of the box.
Have stayed the course with dry/warmer/windier conditions on Friday.
-Howerton
Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 330 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
The warming trend will continue into the weekend as ridge builds.
Some hint on the latest available guidance that front may sag
close enough to bring small chances for precipitation on sun/Sun
night. Not overly optimistic about these chances but in absence of
0000 UTC European model (ecmwf) will not make significant changes. Have hedged
temperatures up a bit above initialization grids based on last
warm period and best guidance at these time ranges. Temperatures in
triple digits appear probable in central Kansas by early next week.
-Howerton
&&
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1244 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
The main aviation forecast concern are the thunderstorm chances
overnight.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail...but low clumulus clouds
could impact the terminals this afternoon. Ceilings have lifted to
3500+ kft this afternoon and expect that trend to continue. A
slight chance of thunderstorm exists this afternoon and early
evening...but confidence is low on that and have left out any
mention at this time and will allow for amendments if something
develops. However...confidence is higher for overnight convection
and have a thunderstorms in the vicinity at all terminals for storms. Southerly winds are a
bit weaker than anticipated...but still expecting gusts this
afternoon and then again tomorrow afternoon with mixing.
Billings
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 87 70 90 73 / 30 40 30 10
Hutchinson 86 69 91 72 / 30 50 20 10
Newton 86 68 89 72 / 40 40 30 10
Eldorado 86 69 88 73 / 30 40 40 10
Winfield-kwld 87 70 89 73 / 30 40 30 10
Russell 87 68 94 71 / 50 50 10 10
Great Bend 87 68 93 72 / 50 50 10 10
Salina 88 70 90 75 / 40 50 30 10
McPherson 86 69 90 72 / 40 50 30 10
Coffeyville 88 69 86 73 / 20 30 30 10
Chanute 87 68 84 72 / 20 30 30 10
Iola 87 68 83 71 / 20 30 30 10
Parsons-kppf 87 69 84 72 / 20 30 30 10
&&
Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
