Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1152 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015
..updated for 18z aviation discussion...
issued at 1013 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015
Early morning sounding profiles along with marginal surface
temperatures will continue to support a mix of light rain-sleet-
snow this morning...mainly northwest of the Kansas Turnpike. A light
dusting is possible...with perhaps a few tenths generally
along/north of I-70. Precipitation should gradually change-over to
all rain by early afternoon or so as warmer air advects from the
south. A change-over to all snow is still expected tonight...with
up to one inch possible across central/east-central Kansas.
Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 337 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015
Very light precipitation/mainly rain has occurred since last evening
over central Kansas and more recently a bit further northeast
across the Flint Hills. The spirit of the going forecast seems
to be on track with more persistent isentropic lift within a
deeper layer and better low level moisture flux today resulting
in more numerous to widespread light to moderate rain to spread
northeast across the area. Forecast soundings are marginally
support of a period of snow or mixed precipitation early this morning
over central Kansas...with rain for all areas into the afternoon
and early evening. As colder air begins to advect south later
tonight with the associated northern stream upper trough...a
changeover to snow is still expected to occur before the better
moisture and lift is shunted east of the area by midday Sunday. It
still appears that residence time and rates will be low enough to
only support light snow accums of generally an inch or
less...mainly north and northeast of greater Wichita. Brisk and
occasionally strong north winds and much colder air will prevail
on Sunday with steady or falling temperatures during the day.
Clearing and very cold conditions are expected Sunday night with
some moderation in temperature expected on Monday.
Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 337 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015
Main change to the outer periods was to trim maximum temperatures
again on Wednesday as colder air wedges south across the area.
Frontal timing is still somewhat in question...though both the
European model (ecmwf) and GFS support frontal passage early in the day and
some additional tweaks down may be needed with future forecasts.
Otherwise a decent warm-up is expected ahead of this front on
Tuesday. Confidence on precipitation chances with the middle-week front
are not high...though for now will leave the slight chance for
a wintry mix to snow Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1152 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015
Widespread rain will persist through the afternoon and evening
across the region. Temperatures have warmed...so thinking the
wintry mix is done at least the daylight hours. Ceilings should
continue to deteriorate through the afternoon and
evening...probably eventually falling into IFR for most/all
locations. Widespread precipitation will gradually exit to the
east late tonight...with a strong cold front blasting south with
strong northwest winds and falling temperatures in its wake.
Could see a few hours of all snow for rsl-sln and maybe hut
toward 06-12z time frame...but only light accumulations are
expected. Ceilings should improve to MVFR behind the front late
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 42 31 33 13 / 100 100 20 0
Hutchinson 41 28 31 9 / 100 100 20 0
Newton 40 29 31 10 / 100 100 20 0
Eldorado 42 31 33 11 / 100 100 30 0
Winfield-kwld 43 34 36 12 / 100 100 30 0
Russell 40 24 27 9 / 90 90 10 0
Great Bend 40 25 29 10 / 90 90 10 0
Salina 40 26 29 9 / 100 100 20 0
McPherson 41 27 30 9 / 100 100 20 0
Coffeyville 47 37 41 14 / 100 100 60 0
Chanute 44 35 37 11 / 100 100 60 10
Iola 44 34 37 11 / 100 100 60 10
Parsons-kppf 46 36 39 12 / 100 100 60 10