Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1042 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

issued at 330 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

Looking at a loop of the radar mosaic and water vapor the upper
low center is currently over central western Kansas. The
convection that fired off during the evening has moved off over
eastern Kansas with showers and even some snow wrapping around
the back side of it over Colorado and over Nebraska. Clearing over
portions of central and southwest Kansas have allowed temperatures
to drop into the upper 30s and 40s while the clouds and rain have
kept temperatures in the 50s for much of the remainder of Kansas.

Billings Wright


issued at 1041 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

Main upper low that has plagued the area for the last few days is
finally on the move...currently located along the Kansas/OK border over
south central Kansas. Cyclonic curvature just to the southeast of the
low and copious amounts of low level moisture has led to a
persistent area of showers and some embedded thunder over southern
Kansas. Also seeing a large wraparound rain shield across most of northwest moisture gets completely wrapped around the northern side of the

Expect the upper low to finally make steady progress to the east
this afternoon...reaching SW MO by this a northern
stream system helps kick this system out of the plains. As this
system moves east...think most of the showers across southeast Kansas
will gradually shift east-northeast by late this afternoon. Only
expecting some showers and embedded thunder as this moves
the better instability and bulk shear keeps any severe chances to
the south-southeast of the forecast in OK.

As the low marches east...wraparound rain in northwest Kansas will slowly
translate east-southeast for the late afternoon hours initially
across central Kansas...and eventually into south central Kansas by this
evening. So will keep likely probability of precipitation going for this chance. Not sure
the wraparound showers will see very much embedded thunder as
elevated instability shifts slowly southeast with time...but will
leave a mention in for now...given remnant SBCAPE values around 500
j/kg with some afternoon heating expected and steep lapse rates.



Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 330 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

all of the short-term higher resolution guidance indicate the
development of showers and thunderstorms across south central
Kansas towards morning break. Expect this with one of the lobes
of vorticity that will move around the upper low. As of 3am think
the first hint of this may be developing over west central
Oklahoma. Have increased probability of precipitation towards morning and for the morning
hours over southern Kansas to account for this. Thunderstorms may
wane in between...but the higher resolution guidance has them
increasing in coverage towards 18z over southeast Kansas. While
cape is not overwhelming (1000-1500) and shear is best south of
the Oklahoma border...the support of the upper wave could help
support some stronger storms. Feel the best chance for these
stronger storms will be earlier rather than later...18-21z. As the
upper low continues to move east all instability will push
eastward as well.

The cold front will quickly move across the area as well
today...bringing breezy northwesterly winds. There will likely be
some showers along and behind the front as it moves southeast
throughout the day. The rain will end by the end of the day as the
system pushes eastward.

the slow moving upper low that impacted the Central Plains will
get absorbed by a potent upper low moving southeastward from
Canada. This upper low will slow and stall out over the Great
Lakes as a few different waves move around it and impact our area.
Monday will be dry and cooler with highs in the low 60s. On Tuesday
there will be a chance for precipitation across the area.

Billings Wright

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 330 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

The extended continues to change and evolve...the upper low over
the Great Lakes/northeast is strong enough and the next upper low
from Baja California is slow enough that the concern for thunderstorms on
Wednesday and Thursday has diminished. As the next upper wave as
of the 00z/19th guidance will not approach from the southwest
until Thursday night.

Chances for precipitation remain in the extended forecast
Wednesday and there are still some waves moving
around the back side of the Great Lakes upper low with a boundary
in the area. However...strong to severe potential looks slim. The
upper wave from the southwest looks to traverse the area on Friday
and Saturday pulling a surface low across Oklahoma which could
mean precipitation for the area...but cooler
temperatures...however...not cold enough for frozen precipitation.
Could be another chance for beneficial rain. However...with the
changes already seen to this period over the past couple of
days...confidence is low and will want to watch later forecasts.

Billings Wright


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 635 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

Patchy fog this morning in the dry slot that is working around
the slow moving low. Sharp trough axis continues to generate
showers and thunderstorms over north central OK...which should
spread into southern Kansas over the next few hours. Anticipate showers
will also spread into krsl/ksln later this morning as low moves
east. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind surface front...
which should traverse all sites during the day. Clearing tonight
as ridge builds into the area at both surface and aloft. -Howerton


Fire weather...
issued at 330 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

Grassland fire danger will reach very high on Monday afternoon in
central Kansas north of I-70 mainly due to breezy north westerly
winds. The recent rains will help the threat of out of control
wild fires by greening up the Grasslands.

Billings Wright


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 66 39 64 41 / 80 20 0 10
Hutchinson 64 38 63 40 / 70 10 0 10
Newton 65 39 61 40 / 80 20 0 10
Eldorado 68 40 63 41 / 80 20 0 10
Winfield-kwld 66 39 64 42 / 80 20 0 10
Russell 60 35 62 38 / 70 10 0 10
Great Bend 62 35 62 38 / 70 10 0 10
Salina 63 38 64 38 / 60 10 0 10
McPherson 62 38 62 39 / 70 10 0 10
Coffeyville 71 43 64 42 / 80 20 10 10
Chanute 68 42 64 40 / 80 20 10 0
Iola 68 42 63 40 / 80 20 10 0
Parsons-kppf 69 43 64 41 / 80 20 10 10


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations