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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1132 PM CDT sun Jul 13 2014

..updated for 06z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 321 PM CDT sun Jul 13 2014

The middle/upper ridge over the Central Plains has broken down as a
vigorous trough over Ontario and Manitoba propagates south toward
the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes areas. The first in a
series of cold fronts has moved through central and much of south
central Kansas and may provide a focus for storms across southeast
Kansas late this afternoon and evening before moving south of the area.
Another more vigorous push of Canadian air will arrive across the
area on Monday bringing additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms. A transient period with MLCAPES around 1500 j/kg and
deep layer shear around 35 knots may result in a few strong or
perhaps an isolated severe storm along the front but widespread
organized severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Much drier air will be advected south across the area Monday night
into Tuesday with dry weather conditions and below normal
temperatures anticipated. Highs on Tuesday are expected to remain
about 15 degrees below normal with readings in the upper 70s.

Wed-Thu...another shortwave trough will approach in northwest
middle/upper flow late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The best
large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to remain west of the
area but maintained middle probability of precipitation weighted across the western zones while
carrying a slight chance into Thursday as this shortwave trough
translates eastward across the Southern Plains. Temperatures will
remain below normal through the period with highs remaining in the
70s.

Long term...(friday through sunday)
issued at 321 PM CDT sun Jul 13 2014

A warming trend is anticipated with rising heights/increasing
thickness supporting rising temperatures through the period. Highs
are expected to return to normal values toward the end of the
weekend. A shortwave trough may impact the area late Saturday into
Sunday...however confidence in widespread wetting rains remains
low at this time.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1130 PM CDT sun Jul 13 2014

Occasional middle-level clouds will stream overhead through the night
into the daytime hours on Monday. Meanwhile a strong cold front
will surge southward across the area during the day on
Monday...with gusty north winds in its wake. Could be some
elevated showers/storms behind the front but more widely scattered
for the afternoon hours.

Jakub

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 70 89 59 77 / 20 40 10 10
Hutchinson 69 89 57 78 / 20 40 10 10
Newton 68 87 55 76 / 20 40 10 10
Eldorado 68 88 56 76 / 20 40 10 10
Winfield-kwld 70 89 59 78 / 30 40 10 10
Russell 67 85 55 76 / 10 30 10 10
Great Bend 67 87 55 75 / 10 30 10 10
Salina 69 88 56 79 / 10 40 10 10
McPherson 68 88 56 77 / 20 40 10 10
Coffeyville 70 88 59 79 / 30 50 10 0
Chanute 69 87 57 77 / 30 50 10 0
Iola 69 87 56 77 / 30 50 10 0
Parsons-kppf 70 88 58 78 / 30 50 10 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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