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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
613 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 257 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015

Destabilization of the boundary layer has been hindered due to
clouds across central and eastern Kansas...but some breaks in the
clouds per latest visible satellite imagery will allow some surface
heating to occur over central/south central Kansas just ahead of the
surface front. We could see a few strong storms develop along the
front later this afternoon/evening...but with less than favorable
wind shear aloft severe weather chances are low. Also we will trim
off western counties for the Flood Watch and keep it confined to
southeast Kansas for tonight...where better chances for any new
flooding could occur. Meanwhile...a more robust push of cooler/drier
air will spread southward tonight with cooler below normal
temperatures and dry weather for the weekend.

The models show some elevated moisture working northward Sunday
night across central Kansas...and forced into a 700mb baroclinic
zone which could generate a few elevated showers/storms for late
Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise another pleasant weather
day will be on tap for Monday with surface high pressure sliding
slowly eastward.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 257 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015

Long range models agree on a weather pattern change for the Central
Plains...with upper level ridging actually developing over the
region which has not occurred in some time. This will give way to
warmer temperatures for Kansas with mainly dry weather...however
models do show an elevated baroclinic zone over Nebraska and
northern Kansas. This should be the focus for a couple episodes
of elevated convection which could affect central Kansas mainly
during the night time hours on Tuesday and Wednesday. The warmer
temperatures will continue for the rest of the work week across
mid-America.

Jakub

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 614 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015

A strong cold front will sweep southeast across the area this
evening through early tonight. Scattered convection is expected
mainly along and just behind the front...affecting central Kansas
by middle-evening and south central and southeast Kansas late this
evening into a few hours past midnight. A period of MVFR ceilings
can be expected tonight with gusty north to northwest winds. VFR
conditions with a diminishing wind by midday Saturday and beyond.

Ked

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 58 71 52 76 / 30 10 0 10
Hutchinson 57 71 50 76 / 20 10 0 0
Newton 55 69 51 76 / 30 10 0 10
Eldorado 59 70 52 75 / 30 10 0 10
Winfield-kwld 59 72 53 75 / 30 10 0 10
Russell 53 70 46 78 / 30 10 0 0
Great Bend 53 70 47 78 / 30 10 0 0
Salina 56 70 48 77 / 30 10 0 10
McPherson 55 70 50 76 / 20 10 0 10
Coffeyville 62 71 55 74 / 60 10 0 10
Chanute 61 71 55 73 / 60 10 0 10
Iola 61 70 55 73 / 60 10 0 10
Parsons-kppf 61 72 55 73 / 70 10 0 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ksz070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

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