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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
316 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 312 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Deep moist convection is expected to develop this afternoon and
evening along a stalled frontal boundary across central Kansas where the
highest probability of precipitation will be maintained. Other more isolated diurnally
driven activity will be possible through early evening across
southern Kansas. Some of the higher resolution model guidance is
suggesting that outflow will force the boundary further south and
trended probability of precipitation up slightly across portions of south central and
southeast Kansas to account for this scenario. By 07-09z the warm
front is expected to lift north bringing an end to any lingering
precipitation.

Much of Tuesday may be dry but maintained middle probability of precipitation across portions
of central and south central Kansas as any activity developing
across SW Kansas may drift northeast across the area later in the day
and the airmass is prognosticated to remain weakly capped. Better chances
for more widespread precipitation will arrive late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday as a vigorous shortwave trough emerges over the Central
High plains. This was handled well in the previous forecast and
the primary change was to slow probability of precipitation with the highest probabilities
arriving after 06z across the forecast area.

Wed-Thu...the deep layer shear is prognosticated to increase on Wednesday as the
focus for deep moist convection is expected to develop along Highway 281
along a dryline. Maintained middle probability of precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday as the
airmass is prognosticated to remain unstable with a continuation of
southwest middle/upper flow. Timing any shortwave troughs lifting out
of the southwest becomes challenging at this point.

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 312 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

A middle/upper trough over the southwest at the beginning of
the period is prognosticated to move east/northeast into the southern
and central rockies over the weekend. Rich moisture is prognosticated to
remain entrenched across the southern and Central Plains states
where multiple rounds of deep moist convection are expected late
in the week and into the weekend. Maintained middle probability of precipitation through much
of the period with seasonably mild temperatures anticipated.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1233 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Scattered to numerous strong convection is expected along the
I-70 corridor late this afternoon and evening along a nearly
stationary front. It is possible outflow from these storms
could force an outflow boundary south and force convection
across parts of south central Kansas...though confidence is
relatively low on this scenario. Otherwise southerly flow will
re-establish itself across all areas later tonight and into
Tuesday morning. Some MVFR ceilings are possible in parts of
central Kansas...mainly near krsl.

Ked



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 63 77 63 77 / 30 20 90 60
Hutchinson 62 76 61 77 / 40 20 90 50
Newton 61 74 59 73 / 30 10 90 60
Eldorado 63 79 63 76 / 20 10 90 70
Winfield-kwld 62 77 62 76 / 20 20 90 60
Russell 59 75 59 78 / 60 50 80 50
Great Bend 59 73 59 78 / 50 60 80 40
Salina 60 78 61 77 / 40 20 90 50
McPherson 60 75 60 74 / 40 20 90 50
Coffeyville 60 78 63 74 / 20 20 80 80
Chanute 61 79 63 75 / 20 10 70 80
Iola 62 78 63 73 / 20 10 70 80
Parsons-kppf 61 79 63 75 / 20 20 70 80

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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