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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
255 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

While moderate instability exists across the southeast corner of
Kansas...forcing and focus for convection is weak...so will
maintain a dry forecast this evening. Modest elevated warm/moist
advection late tonight may promote isolated convection across
central Kansas a few hours either side of dawn...so will retain
small probability of precipitation there early Sunday morning. Otherwise the main focus
and challenge revolves around the increasing prospects for
episodal deep moist convection Sunday night through Tuesday.
Increasing westerly flow aloft over the western Continental U.S. Will
translate east across the northern/Central Plains and Midwest
through the period. This will be heralded by a lead upper trough
late Sunday followed by a couple of trailing/weaker shortwaves
Monday into Tuesday. A moderate to perhaps very unstable airmass
will develop ahead of the surface dryline and cold front late
Sunday afternoon and evening across central Kansas. Diurnal
surface based convection will likely be suppressed by a Stout
capping inversion until early evening. However the forcing for
ascent should be more than sufficient along the front with deep
layer shear supportive of a severe convective episode Sunday
evening into part of Sunday night. The main challenge will be the
southern extent of this activity due to the aforementioned warm
middle-level temperatures. The best likelihood should remain
along/north of I-70...though mesoscale affects/outflow could
force development further south than indicated by most short term
models. Therefore will retain chances further south into south
central and southeast Kansas Sunday night...though adjust probability of precipitation
down just a bit. While this complex will likely exit stage right
by Monday morning...the surface front is expected to lay out
across south central into eastern Kansas during the day. The
combination of diurnal heating and a trailing shortwave aloft
migrating east across the area should result in renewed convection
by late Monday. Moderate to strong instability and modest shear
could also give rise to another round of severe storms. The quasi-
stationary frontal boundary will remain the focus for convection
Monday night into Tuesday...with potential for heavy rainfall and
at least strong storms.

Darmofal

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Flow aloft will weaken as geopotential heights rise as the upper
ridge axis builds north toward the area for the end of the week.
The surface front will likewise shift north of the
area...resulting in very warm but dry weather. Differences do
arise by Friday into Saturday as to the potential for a cold
frontal passage and offering of slight cooling. Confidence on this
scenario this far out is shaky at best...so will only trend
temperatures closer to seasonal climatology by Saturday with modest
precipitation chances.

Ked

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

There is a threat of convection for krsl and MVFR fog for kcnu
during the taf period.

Surface high pressure will move into the lower Missouri Valley
during the overnight hours. Low level flow will veer to an
east to southeast direction in southeast Kansas...advecting improved
low level moisture below 2k. Early morning diurnal mixing likely
will produce MVFR fog at kcnu...which should dissipate by 14-15
UTC as with increase bl mixing.

At the opposite end of the County Warning Area...there is a threat for elevated
convection after 09 UTC for krsl. Synoptic and mesoscale models depicting
advance of shortwave/pv anomaly into western Kansas after 06
UTC...with both NAM/GFS depicting enhanced lift along the 315k between
09-12 UTC. Introduced thunderstorms in the vicinity into krsl taf though confidence that
storms actually will impact taf site not great.

Remainder of taf sites will experience VFR conditions through the
entirety of taf period...with only expected aviation impact
occurring very late in the taf period as southerly winds increase
to sustained speeds 12-15kts with gusts 20-25kts.

Sf

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 69 96 72 92 / 10 10 30 30
Hutchinson 69 97 71 90 / 10 10 40 20
Newton 69 95 72 90 / 10 10 50 30
Eldorado 69 95 73 92 / 10 10 40 30
Winfield-kwld 70 96 74 93 / 10 10 20 40
Russell 69 97 65 85 / 20 20 60 10
Great Bend 69 97 66 87 / 20 20 50 10
Salina 70 98 68 88 / 20 20 60 20
McPherson 70 97 70 88 / 20 20 50 20
Coffeyville 70 95 74 93 / 10 10 20 40
Chanute 69 94 73 91 / 10 10 30 40
Iola 69 94 73 91 / 10 10 40 40
Parsons-kppf 70 95 74 92 / 10 10 20 40

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

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