Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1159 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013
Update...
issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013
Update to the aviation section below for the 06z tafs.
&&
Update issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013
Severe threat continues to wane...likely due to activity running
into a fairly Stout capping inversion...and outrunning better
effective deep layer shear...all per top 00z sounding. May see
additional thunderstorm development further west of this line
through the overnight hours...likely sub-severe...as elevated
warm/moist advection continues ahead of approaching negatively
tilted shortwave per increasing low-level jet. Main show is now
slated for tomorrow afternoon/evening over eastern Kansas.
Adk
&&
Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 247 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013
This evening and tonight...
the latest short term guidance suggests a better chance for
portions of central and especially south central Kansas being
affected by severe convection this evening as it evolves/moves
east off the dry-line further to the west. Strong to extreme
instability will be present at peak heating with initiation
expected just west of the forecast area by late afternoon or early
evening. This activity is expected to move east-northeast into at
least western portions of central and south central Kansas this
evening with shear profiles supportive of supercells and a few
tornadoes. Cap strength will be key in how far east this
convection can develop across the rest of central and south
central Kansas...though the NAM and GFS would suggest as far east
as the Turnpike through the early overnight hours. The prognosticated energy
helicity values below 3km and 1km suggests that a tornado
potential will exist even after dark up through midnight across south
central Kansas. While there is some negating factors with cap
strength and flow aloft for convective and supercell maintenance
into early tonight...the strong low level jet and rather
impressive instability does lead to keep this possibility open.
-Ked
Sunday...another round of significant severe weather is expected
across much of the area on Sunday-Sunday night. Much like this
afternoon...the dryline will be the primary focus for deep moist
convection during the middle to late afternoon hours but some
uncertainty remains in how far east the dryline mixes. The NAM is
the most aggressive and further east allowing low level flow to veer
to the southwest across much of south central Kansas which would
likely reduce the threat for tornadoes west of I-135 keeping the
greatest threat mainly east of the Wichita area across much of east
central and southeast Kansas. The GFS/European model (ecmwf) are less aggressive
mixing the dryline eastward while the GFS forecasts indicate a
retreating dryline Sunday evening supporting continued thunderstorm
development across portions of central/south central Kansas with
MUCAPE/hail growth region lapse rates supporting the threat for
large hail. The shear profiles continue to support supercells on
Sunday as a more robust h25 speed maximum ejects across the southern and
Central Plains. The deep layer shear becomes quite impressive with
0-8km bulk shear approaching 80 knots by 00z Monday. The potential for
supercells with very large hail and tornadoes will continue through
the evening hours across southeast Kansas.
Mon-Tue...will maintain afternoon probability of precipitation weighted over southeast
Kansas on Monday afternoon as a surface trough is prognosticated to remain
draped across the area and may provide a focus for deep moist
convection. Hard to rule out more severe weather but confidence
remains low at this time. More seasonable temperatures are expected
by Tuesday as the middle/upper trough continues to meander over the
northern plains and drier more seasonable air is advected across the
Central Plains states. -Mwm
Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 247 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013
A middle/upper ridge is prognosticated to return to the central and
Southern Plains in a pattern that may become favorable for
nocturnal thunderstorm activity and maintained probability of precipitation through much
of the period. Seasonably mild temperatures are expected with
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s. -Mwm
&&
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013
Anticipating hit-and-miss scattered showers and thunderstorms to
continue affecting the region through the overnight...due to low-
level warm/moist advection ahead of shortwave approaching from the
southwest. The strongest cores will be capable of dime size hail
and locally heavy rain. Additionally...thinking MVFR to
potentially IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities will develop across the area
toward dawn due to moist low-levels and diurnal cooling. Another
round of thunderstorms will affect kict and especially kcnu
tomorrow afternoon/evening as a cold front approaches from the
northwest.
Adk
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 69 86 60 81 / 70 50 60 30
Hutchinson 66 87 58 83 / 70 50 40 30
Newton 67 83 60 78 / 70 60 60 30
Eldorado 68 86 62 82 / 60 60 60 40
Winfield-kwld 70 86 63 81 / 50 60 60 40
Russell 64 82 52 79 / 70 40 20 20
Great Bend 64 82 53 79 / 70 40 20 20
Salina 66 85 58 80 / 70 50 40 20
McPherson 68 86 58 82 / 70 50 40 20
Coffeyville 70 87 66 82 / 40 60 70 60
Chanute 70 85 66 81 / 40 70 70 50
Iola 70 85 66 81 / 40 80 70 50
Parsons-kppf 70 86 66 81 / 40 70 70 60
&&
Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
