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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
325 am CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 324 am CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

The primary challenge through the short term periods will continue
to revolve around renewed chances for deep moist convection this
afternoon and tonight along the slow moving cold front which is
expected to be draped across south central and southeast Kansas late
this afternoon and evening.

One vigorous shortwave trough was moving across the Central Plains
early this morning while another shortwave trough over the pacnw is
prognosticated to race southeast emerging over the Central Plains late this
afternoon and tonight. The airmass is prognosticated to become moderately
unstable along the front while 0-6km shear is prognosticated to increase
slightly to 45-55 knots. A Stout capping inversion should erode along
the front resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorms after 22z
with the highest probabilities along and east of the Kansas
Turnpike. Cape/shear profiles will support severe thunderstorms with
large hail and damaging winds in addition to heavy rainfall. A
developing low level jet will aid in moist transport along and north of the
front over northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas tonight leading to
continued upstream development and the potential for training cells
along and north of the front within a moist airmass with precipitable waters in
the 140-190 percent of normal range. It appears that the axis of
heaviest rain may remain mostly south of the axis from the previous
night which should limit more widespread flooding concerns.

Tue-Wed...the stalled front is expected to lift north across the
area on Tuesday-Tuesday night and maintained low-middle probability of precipitation within a
moist and weakly capped airmass. Precipitation chances will begin to
diminish late Tuesday into Wednesday with rising heights/increasing
thickness supporting rising temperatures across the Central Plains
states. Highs are expected to rebound to above normal on Wednesday with
values in the low and middle 90s.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 324 am CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Another dry day is expected on Thursday before a shortwave
trough moving over the upper Mississippi Valley drives a cold front
south across the Central Plains late Thursday into Friday. This front will
provide a focus for storms Friday-Sat as it becomes stationary across
the area. Maintained middle probability of precipitation through Sat before uncertainty
increases as the most likely scenario is that the front will be
driven south over the Southern Plains late in the weekend.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1134 PM CDT sun Aug 31 2014

Main concern is ongoing...large thunderstorm complex over central
Kansas. This complex should continue to propagate east-southeast
overnight...with continued back-building on west flank due to
persistent isentropic lift. Variable/gusty winds and torrential
rainfall with reduced visibilities...can be expected at
rsl...sln...hut...and cnu terminals overnight. A cold front will
push slowly southeastward through central Kansas early Monday
am...reaching southeast Kansas late Monday PM. Winds will shift to north
behind the frontal passage. Scattered storms will be possible late Monday
PM/evening in southeast Kansas near the front.

Jmc



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 92 69 90 71 / 30 50 40 30
Hutchinson 89 68 90 71 / 20 30 30 30
Newton 90 67 89 70 / 30 40 30 30
Eldorado 93 67 90 70 / 40 50 40 30
Winfield-kwld 95 70 90 72 / 50 60 40 30
Russell 85 63 88 68 / 10 10 10 20
Great Bend 85 64 89 69 / 10 20 20 20
Salina 90 65 90 71 / 10 20 10 30
McPherson 89 67 89 70 / 20 30 20 30
Coffeyville 96 71 90 72 / 60 70 40 30
Chanute 93 70 89 70 / 60 70 40 40
Iola 91 69 88 69 / 70 70 40 40
Parsons-kppf 95 70 89 72 / 60 70 40 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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