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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
204 PM CST Friday Feb 5 2016

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 201 PM CST Friday Feb 5 2016

A shortwave trough moving over the Central Plains states today will
move into the Southern Plains tonight before arriving over the lower
Mississippi Valley area on Saturday. A few sprinkles or perhaps a
few flurries may be possible across southern Kansas this
evening...however better large-scale forcing for ascent is expected
to remain south of the area and probability of precipitation were lowered accordingly.

Southerly flow will quickly return to the region on Saturday
allowing highs to quickly rebound into the lower 50s over areas
lacking snow.

Sunday-Monday...another progressive clipper system will dig over the
northern plains on Sunday driving a cold front south across the
Central Plains states. A deeply mixed planetary boundary layer with strong and gusty
northwest winds will develop in the wake of the front on Sunday and
continue into Monday. Although the brunt of colder air will be
steered east of the region...highs on Monday are expected to remain
in the 30s across much of the area although lower 40s will be
possible along the Oklahoma state line.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 201 PM CST Friday Feb 5 2016

An extended period of dry weather and seasonably mild
temperatures can be expected through much of the upcoming week as
the mean long wave trough remains anchored across the eastern
Continental U.S. While a large middle/upper ridge impacts much of the
west/southwest. A progressive northwest flow regime is anticipated
across the Central Plains states resulting in dry and mild weather
conditions.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1144 am CST Friday Feb 5 2016

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through this taf
period.

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave impulse extending from
eastern Nebraska into the Texas Panhandle. This feature has generated
an area of middle clouds over northwest/north central Kansas with this area of
clouds expected to pass across the entire area through the early
evening hours. Confidence is high that they will stay above IFR
levels and likely above MVFR levels. Winds will gradually come
around to the southwest and eventually northwest by tonight.

Lawson

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 201 PM CST Friday Feb 5 2016

Strong northwest winds will develop across the area on Sunday in
the wake of a cold front. The strong winds will combine with low
relative humidity and mild temperatures to produce a very high
grassland fire danger both Monday and Tuesday across the area.
Wind speeds will diminish as we move toward the middle of the
week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 26 52 31 54 / 10 0 0 0
Hutchinson 24 54 30 53 / 10 0 0 0
Newton 25 50 31 51 / 10 0 0 0
Eldorado 28 51 32 54 / 10 0 0 10
Winfield-kwld 27 51 31 55 / 10 0 0 0
Russell 20 44 28 42 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 22 50 29 46 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 24 54 31 51 / 10 0 0 10
McPherson 24 51 30 49 / 10 0 0 0
Coffeyville 29 52 31 56 / 10 0 0 10
Chanute 27 50 32 54 / 10 0 0 10
Iola 27 48 31 52 / 10 0 0 10
Parsons-kppf 27 51 31 55 / 10 0 0 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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