Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
322 am CDT Sat may 25 2013
Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 316 am CDT Sat may 25 2013
First concern is southward turning convective complex over
southeast Nebraska. Current corfidi vectors and moisture transport will
veer east-northeast into ktop and kmkc as the early progresses.
This will keep this complex to the northeast of the forecast. Some
concern about the western edge of this system backbuilding into cen
Kansas...but warmer middle level temperatures across cen Kansas will limit this
backward progression.
Main concern for most of the Holiday weekend will be warmer temperatures as
southerly-SW breezes continue to push warmer air into the plains.
Elevated warm air aloft will also limit the convective chances
across most of south cen Kansas...as most of the region remains capped.
Still think convection will occur each afternoon across the High
Plains...well west of the area...closer to the dryline which will be
situated over western Kansas. Could see a few storms...during the evening
hours...try to progress east closer to cen Kansas...so will leave some
afternoon/evening probability of precipitation in this area for this evening and sun evening.
Think the best chance for showers and thunderstorms across the
region...in the short term...will be Monday afternoon across cen
Kansas...as the dry line pushes a little further east than in previous
days. But the elevated mixed layer will keep the storms isolated at
best.
Expecting some breezy afternoons as southwest flow continues across
the area...with Lee side surface trough remaining across the High
Plains. Could see some borderline Wind Advisory type wind gusts to
40 miles per hour each afternoon...but think that middle level cloud cover will
limit the amount of deep mixing to reach Wind Advisory of sustained
30 miles per hour with gusts 45.
Will continue to go above guidance for high temperatures...as model
guidance continues to remain too cool due to the models over doing
the amount of low level moisture and evapotranspiration.
Ketcham
Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 316 am CDT Sat may 25 2013
Medium range models show the surface trough/dryline moving a little
further east for Tue-Thu. Placing it just to the west of the
forecast area. This will lead to a little better chance of showers
and thunderstorms for areas west of I-135 for each afternoon and
evening during this period. Extent of convection on Tuesday/Wednesday will
depend on how warm the elevated mixed layer is across the
region...with convergence along the boundary possibly enough for
isolated convection across cen Kansas. The better days for widespread
and possibly severe convection looks to be on Wednesday/Thursday afternoon...as a
potent shortwave moves out of the SW US into the western High
Plains on Wednesday and across cen Kansas on Thursday.
Ketcham
&&
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 316 am CDT Sat may 25 2013
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013
Aviation concerns remain low ceilings overnight into Sat morning.
MVFR ceilings have already developed along and west of I-135. Am
expecting these ceilings to remain and lower slightly toward daybreak.
Will run with IFR levels for the slightly higher elevation sites
(khut-krsl) but do feel that kict will at least flirt with some
IFR levels late tonight. These ceilings should start to lift a couple
hours after sunrise. The main aviation story will then become the
strong south winds. Along and west of I-135 am looking at
sustained speeds in the 25-30 miles per hour range with higher
gusts...especially over central Kansas.
Lawson
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 84 66 88 67 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 85 65 89 66 / 10 10 10 10
Newton 84 65 88 65 / 10 10 10 10
Eldorado 82 65 85 67 / 10 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 82 66 86 67 / 10 10 10 10
Russell 87 65 90 67 / 10 20 20 30
Great Bend 86 65 90 68 / 10 20 20 20
Salina 86 65 89 66 / 20 20 10 20
McPherson 85 65 89 66 / 10 20 10 10
Coffeyville 82 65 83 66 / 10 10 10 10
Chanute 82 65 83 65 / 20 10 10 10
Iola 82 64 83 65 / 20 20 10 10
Parsons-kppf 81 65 83 66 / 10 10 10 10
&&
Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
